Tampa Bay housing market on fire....still, in 2015! (Orlando, Cape Coral: apartments, renter)

[EngGirl]

Originally Posted by kmarc

So if you've been thinking about selling, do it now or buy a snorkel. If you've been thinking about buying, wait and see. A friend of mine in the RE biz thinks it's gonna get ugly come autumn.

I wish I could sell, but the prices are not high enough to cover 2005 mistake (even after paying for 10 years!)

I am wondering what did you refer to when you said ugly? Interest rates will go up? Prices down?

[Roscoe Conkling]

Originally Posted by kmarc

So if you've been thinking about selling, do it now or buy a snorkel. If you've been thinking about buying, wait and see. A friend of mine in the RE biz thinks it's gonna get ugly come autumn.

Real estate agents are generally the last people I'd trust to predict what's likely to happen in a future housing market.
I prefer to use my own eyes - who is buying what and where.
A lot of foreclosure property is crap that's going to struggle to sell whatever happens.
But buy right in a decent up and coming area - location,location,location -and you'll be fine.
Just ask those wise people who bought into downtown St Petersburg when no-one else would touch it with a barge pole.
RE prices are not going anywhere but up.

[bentlebee]

In an article that came out yesterday, as expected more foreclosures will come on the market but most of them will be zombie foreclosures and some will cost so much to repair since owners have not been paying and neither maintaining for over 5 years and some have sinkhole claims, mold, etc.

I noticed a family in my neighborhood will finally have to move after 7 years of no HOA payment and no mortgage payments and filing for bankruptcy but some how the judge granted an auction and they will be out soon. Hooray!
All they did was move more people in and more cars and no payments. The original owner moved out twice as she thought she would be foreclosed on and then struck a deal with the HOA and defaulted twice on that payment plan after moving back in and nice neighbors helped her to move every time.

I would not believe many predictions for the future by anyone unless it is in the near future.

We have seen predictions how we would be out of oil before 2000 and we still have oil, how the world would end and how prices would be up or down, etc.

I do trust that we are getting another housing issue due to home equity lines ending after 10 years of interest only and owners who have used all that money and now need to repay and will not be able to do so.

Keep in mind that short sales are performed less and less and even lesser being approved unless a real hardship is proven.

Many employees who worked in short sale departments were either reassigned or lost their job and lenders have time and now the knowledge how to go through a foreclosure fast. Home equity lines haven't been sold like regular mortgages as far as I'm aware of the product so not that much work to proof who holds the mortgage note.

Homes like that may be added to the market if owners fail to pay and that takes approx.. 3 failed payments or less and a fast track to the court for filing. Lenders now are aware they have to file fast and act or loose out.

HOA's know how to file for a foreclosure too so if that money goes to the mortgage and non payment for the HOA will be an easy cause for foreclosure.

It will be interesting to see what will happen.

[kmarc]

A friend of ours who has been living in his house mortgage-free for the last five years finally got a court date. His lawyer has been able to delay it slightly, but it is finally going to be taken back by the federal government. I thought that was interesting, because it is in line with what the article said, many zombie and vampire foreclosures are finally being acted upon by the banks/government. In our friend's case, his house is not a wreck, but it does have deferred maintenance with respect to the pool.

I saw bubble 1.0 coming, and was laughed at for it, so I'm comfortable in my opinion that the fall is going to be interesting. Theoretically interest rates are supposed to rise, but there are other factors as well.

Bentle is right and the fall is only three or so months away, that's what I call the near future.

[kmarc]

But also, I was really curious why this area would have the third highest rate of zombie foreclosures in the country??? Any real estate folks care to comment on that?

[bentlebee]

Originally Posted by kmarc

But also, I was really curious why this area would have the third highest rate of zombie foreclosures in the country??? Any real estate folks care to comment on that?

Maybe related to the worst or one of the worst ID theft and other bad regulated things over here as many multiple DUI offenders keep getting back on the road, uninsured drivers getting a ticket and get to drive off and not being towed away.

Just a guess that it may be related to things like that.

Due to my line of work and even before I was professionally in the business I knew some mortgage brokers who all got foreclosed on and all scammed the system as they lived in my area and we knew they were involved with bad decisions and all of them had zero down mortgages with additional home equity lines of credit, the newest cars, telling about all their vacations and how much they were making and plastic surgery.

I'm for free markets and people making money and spending THEIR money the way they want but this was not THEIR money as they moved in for less than what a renter moves in for and spend money that they got through related appraisers who got them the value they wanted so they could get more money to spend.

That on top of politicians who made it like it was so sad that people without money couldn't be a home owner added to the mess.

Unfortunately we will keep running into this mess as we are still seeing people who have no down payment or barely can afford it, buying homes with County money for down payment and not a dime to spend if the fridge breaks down or the A/C as their mind set is as a renter and someone else will pay to fix it. Therefore these homes will not be maintained and let go once it becomes too bad.

BUT what will lenders do next time around?

[FloridaKash]

Just rented our house out for much more than I expected. Glad we used a property manager. We had 3 applications and a deposit in 3 days of being on the market. It appears the rental market is on fire as well.

[kmarc]

Originally Posted by FloridaKash

Just rented our house out for much more than I expected. Glad we used a property manager. We had 3 applications and a deposit in 3 days of being on the market. It appears the rental market is on fire as well.

Decent rentals command high rates at this time.

[dothetwist]

Originally Posted by kmarc

But also, I was really curious why this area would have the third highest rate of zombie foreclosures in the country??? Any real estate folks care to comment on that?

I'm not in real estate, but I'll comment anyway.

Lots of second/vacation homes that people don't have as much a stake in, compared to their primary residence??

[kmarc]

Originally Posted by dothetwist

I'm not in real estate, but I'll comment anyway.

Lots of second/vacation homes that people don't have as much a stake in, compared to their primary residence??

That could be part of it. I remember during bubble 1.0, I used to know this guy who was an appraiser in Central Florida, the Orlando area. He couldn't get hired because he refused to overvalue property for the purposes of "hitting the numbers" for loans and whatnot. When the market tanked, he started getting plenty of work as an investigative appraiser. He told me there were entire "ghost" subdivisions where many foreign buyers had purchased and even filed for, and actually received, homestead exemptions. But the buyers were nowhere to be found. He said most were either from South America or England.

I also spoke with a guy from San Diego who was a real estate "investor" who could no longer afford to buy in California, and chose Florida as his next victim. He was active primarily in the Cape Coral area, which is also pretty high on that zombie foreclosure list.

The zombie foreclosures are hangovers from the first bubble.