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Old 07-23-2016, 07:52 AM
 
131 posts, read 138,644 times
Reputation: 147

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Florida is more susceptible to price swings and yes bubbles than most other locations.
My Florida property rose to 90% above it's 2000 value by 2008, after the bubble burst, it collapsed to 20% below it's normal projected value, now it's over valued once again. At the same time, my property 1000 miles to the north never went up over it's normal annual 3% increase and didn't lose any value or momentum after the bubble burst.

Arizona, by the way, experienced the same trends as Florida, lots of retiring funny money chasing a dream.

The housing market is connected to the rest of the economy, as long as rates are falsely subsidized and the nation continues to borrow, funny money will feed the Florida fantasy creating a bubble once again.

Personal, housing and corporate debt is on the rise, while income is stagnant. There can only be one result from this trend, but many want the freedom to interpret what's happening their own way.
Don't worry...be happy.. �� �� ♭

The Housing Bubble Blog

 
Old 07-23-2016, 09:08 AM
 
Location: tampa bay
7,115 posts, read 8,600,209 times
Reputation: 11700
We have been trying to sell our home for 60 days...we haven't had an offer...we are in the over 500k range and our realtor said on listing day we could expect it to take 5 months!!! We are downsizing and looking at the mid 300's to buy...that price range is moving very quickly but again the price appeals to a broader group of buyers...if the home is highly updated and in mid to high 300's to low 400's I have seen them go to contract in a week!!! Our home appeals to a certain niche buyer and needs some updating... we will likely have to lower our price...5%! I don't think this is like 04-07 when buyers were overpaying by crazy amounts...but these are just my observations of the northern Pinellas area...
 
Old 07-23-2016, 11:14 AM
 
Location: Central Mexico and Central Florida
7,150 posts, read 4,865,961 times
Reputation: 10444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishiis49 View Post
We have been trying to sell our home for 60 days...we haven't had an offer...we are in the over 500k range and our realtor said on listing day we could expect it to take 5 months!!! We are downsizing and looking at the mid 300's to buy...that price range is moving very quickly but again the price appeals to a broader group of buyers...if the home is highly updated and in mid to high 300's to low 400's I have seen them go to contract in a week!!! Our home appeals to a certain niche buyer and needs some updating... we will likely have to lower our price...5%! I don't think this is like 04-07 when buyers were overpaying by crazy amounts...but these are just my observations of the northern Pinellas area...
April 2016 data from Pinellas Realtor Assn. indicate the Median Days to Contract for SFH with sales price between 400K to 599K was 43 days.

If anything, the market continued to gain steam between April and now. Your realtor 5 months estimate seems horribly off. Did you ask other realtors before listing with current?
 
Old 07-23-2016, 11:47 AM
 
45 posts, read 49,379 times
Reputation: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by leenme View Post
florida is more susceptible to price swings and yes bubbles than most other locations.
My florida property rose to 90% above it's 2000 value by 2008, after the bubble burst, it collapsed to 20% below it's normal projected value, now it's over valued once again. correct and it's right in front of anyone's face if the choose to see this fact.at the same time, my property 1000 miles to the north never went up over it's normal annual 3% increase and didn't lose any value or momentum after the bubble burst.

arizona, by the way, experienced the same trends as florida, lots of retiring funny money chasing a dream. exactly right, but again, no one wants to acknowledge this flow and its artificial impact on pricing models.

the housing market is connected to the rest of the economy, as long as rates are falsely subsidized and the nation continues to borrow, funny money will feed the florida fantasy creating a bubble once again. we're already there in pockets-namely sarasota, manatee, lwr, nfmy, estero, and bonita. The pricing per sq ft is stratospheric with no basis in logic viz hard builder costs, including land acquisition costs. It's not a function only of "supply and demand" - that model and theory is no longer applicable given the important consideration of what you mentioned in re "falsely subsidized" rates, low gdp percentages, and completely stagnant wages.

personal, housing and corporate debt is on the rise, while income is stagnant. There can only be one result from this trend, but many want the freedom to interpret what's happening their own way.
don't worry...be happy.. �� �� ♭people are certainly free, even to be ignorant and blind for sure

the housing bubble blog
agreed.
 
Old 07-23-2016, 02:09 PM
 
33 posts, read 52,614 times
Reputation: 44
Just moved here from Chicago and was thinking of buying but can't stomach the fact that the house I was looking at went for 179k back in 2009 and is now priced at 250k. My realtor told me that we are due a hurricane and that might cool prices down a bit once people realize the reality of living in Florida.
 
Old 07-23-2016, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Spring Hill Florida
12,135 posts, read 16,024,514 times
Reputation: 6085
Nothing changed in 2004 when we had 3 hurricanes. Hurricane Charley made landfall in Florida as aCategory 4 causing $15.1 billion in damage in the United States alone. Hurricane Frances struck the Bahamas and Florida, causing at least 49 deaths and $9.5 billion in damage. The most intense storm, and the one that caused the most damage, was Hurricane Ivan. It was a Category 5 hurricane causing catastrophic destruction on the Gulf Coast of the United States, especially Alabama and Florida.

That is why we have insurance.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagobywayofTampa View Post
Just moved here from Chicago and was thinking of buying but can't stomach the fact that the house I was looking at went for 179k back in 2009 and is now priced at 250k. My realtor told me that we are due a hurricane and that might cool prices down a bit once people realize the reality of living in Florida.
 
Old 07-23-2016, 02:41 PM
 
33 posts, read 52,614 times
Reputation: 44
With the growth we are currently seeing from people like myself who are moving from high tax, high debt states like Illinois it's going to be a sellers market for the foreseeable future. I just hate the thought of buying at the top of the market. Yet, the apartments here are built with paper thin walls and are full of people who have n clue what "noise consideration" means.
 
Old 07-23-2016, 02:45 PM
 
Location: Central Mexico and Central Florida
7,150 posts, read 4,865,961 times
Reputation: 10444
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagobywayofTampa View Post
With the growth we are currently seeing from people like myself who are moving from high tax, high debt states like Illinois it's going to be a sellers market for the foreseeable future. I just hate the thought of buying at the top of the market. Yet, the apartments here are built with paper thin walls and are full of people who have n clue what "noise consideration" means.
This may not be the top of the market. No one knows.
 
Old 07-23-2016, 04:54 PM
 
Location: tampa bay
7,115 posts, read 8,600,209 times
Reputation: 11700
Quote:
Originally Posted by dothetwist View Post
April 2016 data from Pinellas Realtor Assn. indicate the Median Days to Contract for SFH with sales price between 400K to 599K was 43 days.

If anything, the market continued to gain steam between April and now. Your realtor 5 months estimate seems horribly off. Did you ask other realtors before listing with current?
Ok our home was listed at 599k...I would think that you really can't compare such a big price gap( 400K to 599K)...yes we interviewed 3 other top realtors...I should mention our home has a unique floor plan and doesn't suit most buyers needs so that also was a factor in the five month estimate...we listed around Memorial Day.and I heard at the time April was a great month and around Mother's Day it slowed... I heard that from several realtors at end of May...I'm by no means an expert...
 
Old 07-23-2016, 05:27 PM
 
Location: Central Mexico and Central Florida
7,150 posts, read 4,865,961 times
Reputation: 10444
Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishiis49 View Post
Ok our home was listed at 599k...I would think that you really can't compare such a big price gap( 400K to 599K)...yes we interviewed 3 other top realtors...I should mention our home has a unique floor plan and doesn't suit most buyers needs so that also was a factor in the five month estimate...we listed around Memorial Day.and I heard at the time April was a great month and around Mother's Day it slowed... I heard that from several realtors at end of May...I'm by no means an expert...
Any home properly priced right should sell in almost any market under 90 days. At some point you may have to give up on that "special buyer" and move on with your lives. If you didn't buy with resale in mind, you will have to compromise on price.

Everyone should always think resale resale resale, even if when they buy a house they are certain it'll be their very last, never-gonna-move home. Things change.

I disagree that things slowed around Mother's Day, at least in Pinellas. If you home is that 'unique' it may be hard to do comps and that's why it's not selling. How long has it been listed...if it's been 45 days, it's time to reduce, probably 10%

Here in Gulfport (and Dunedin and Safety Harbor), if a house sits more than 45 days it's a very very bad sign. And I'm talking about the downtown areas...not cookie cutter houses, all are unique. But all are selling very fast unless dramatically over-priced.

Last edited by dothetwist; 07-23-2016 at 06:45 PM..
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