What would happen if a major hurricane hit Tampa

[ChuteTheMall]

I'd rather be trapped here at home, without electricity or running water, than trapped in a traffic jam.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by ChuteTheMall

I'd rather be trapped here at home, without electricity or running water, than trapped in a traffic jam.

Without A/C lee you will wanna roll over and die as the fetch from a onshore bound storm would make the dewpoints so high it would make the worst reverse west windflow blush.

[cfbs2691]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Without A/C lee you will wanna roll over and die as the fetch from a onshore bound storm would make the dewpoints so high it would make the worst reverse west windflow blush.

Can you please explain that to me as though I'm a 4 year old?
In South Florida after a hurricane passes it's been great weather in the many years I've lived here and was told it's because the storms pull/take all the bad weather with it.
Hope this makes sense as I don't remember the specifics

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by cfbs2691

Can you please explain that to me as though I'm a 4 year old?
In South Florida after a hurricane passes it's been great weather in the many years I've lived here and was told it's because the storms pull/take all the bad weather with it.
Hope this makes sense as I don't remember the specifics

East coast is a total diff world compared to the hot 88 to 91 degree gulf water temps. If a storm moves ashore on our side it brings a nasty super humid fetch. And remember air sinks around bigger storms making it even hotter. Many times we get big storm a few hundred miles to our east as they move to the north and we get the sinking air on the west side of big storms, so that will dry us out and make it hotter

[cfbs2691]

Wow.
Thanks so much. I appreciate it.

[MOforthewin]

Very hard to get a major into Tampa area. It would have to have a similar track like Wilma or Charley except further north and by that time shear would start to hit it. If Charley would have went more north into Tampa I doubt it would have been a strong cat4 150mph. Probably more like 130-135 as it would have encountered more hostile upper level winds. Also remember a compact storm like Charley doesn't cause a huge surge like Katrina did for example. A storm like Charley the wind would be a major concern.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Very hard to get a major into Tampa area. It would have to have a similar track like Wilma or Charley except further north and by that time shear would start to hit it. If Charley would have went more north into Tampa I doubt it would have been a strong cat4 150mph. Probably more like 130-135 as it would have encountered more hostile upper level winds. Also remember a compact storm like Charley doesn't cause a huge surge like Katrina did for example. A storm like Charley the wind would be a major concern.

That was a tiny storm with the core winds no more than 40 miles from the center. We got nothing from it in Tampa, not even any rain to speak of. It would pull up less water compared to a much bigger storm.

[Fletchman]

There are areas of Pinellas (Seminole and Clearwater especially) that are more than 40 ft. above sea level. You actually don't have to go inland to get away from storm surge.

Wind would be a problem, however. I think much of the housing stock would be devastated in a Cat 4/5.

Region has done a better job of building new fire stations that can survive a Cat 4/5.

Best thing you can do is find a friend that lives well above sea level and go there if you need to.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

That was a tiny storm with the core winds no more than 40 miles from the center. We got nothing from it in Tampa, not even any rain to speak of. It would pull up less water compared to a much bigger storm.

True. Katrina weakened but still cause a major surge due to it's size. However IMO Katrina was a cat4 at landfall still because the eyewall footage and wind damage in MS still looked low end cat4ish. The problem with large, powerful storms when making landfall in north Florida and northern Gulf coast is that they are sucking in drier air hours before they make landfall. This is part of the reason why hurricanes like KAtrina, Rita, Ivan. Opal weaken before landfall because of the drier air from the continental US. Lower heat content is bit of a factor too closer to the coast for large storms too, but if they're moving quick enough and SST are hot it doesn't have an effect as much.

Smaller storms that move quickly don't suck in the dry air as much before landfall. That is how Hurricane Camille maintain intensity up until landfall. Didn't suck in as much dry air due to the smaller size.

Charley was small and moving quickly over warm water even though shallow and low heat content near the coast so that wasn't factor. Also the Florida Peninsula has water on both sides so that is less dry air to suck in too. Hurricanes in the northern Gulf seem to have a plateau of 125-130mph range at landfall, unless they're really strong or are small and fast moving such as Camille. Katrina IMO was 140mph at initial landfall in LA and 135-140 in MS as well but took a beating from that cooler, drier air from the mainland. I know the official report for Katrina is 125mph but IMO it was still 140mph at landfall. Especially in MS from people I've talked to in the eyewall. It actually started getting it's act back together as it was hitting the MS coastline.