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Old 09-07-2017, 12:13 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 32,431,145 times
Reputation: 14611

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This site says we're getting up to 30 mph winds - we've seen worse from Tropical Storms, haven't we? Also looks like the site predicts a fast moving storm w/ sunny weather by early to midweek...looks like Sunday and Monday will be the indoor days here in the TB area......hope it's as benign as the site predicts.

https://www.windy.com/27.948/-82.458...58,8,m:erJadRJ



Last edited by BucFan; 09-07-2017 at 12:35 PM..

 
Old 09-07-2017, 12:31 PM
 
Location: South Tampa, Maui, Paris
4,479 posts, read 3,848,623 times
Reputation: 5329
I do not understand the evac orders if this thing is going to barely impact us.

Heck I get more winds from your typical PM summer downpour.
 
Old 09-07-2017, 12:41 PM
 
5,687 posts, read 7,182,040 times
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Does anyone know when the official storm track updates come out? I know they come out on the fives (am and pm). Do they also come out on the elevenses?
 
Old 09-07-2017, 12:50 PM
 
Location: -"`-._,-'"`-._, ☀ Sunny Florida ☀ ,-"`-._,-'"`-.
1,357 posts, read 1,242,093 times
Reputation: 1324
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucFan View Post
This site says we're getting up to 30 mph winds - we've seen worse from Tropical Storms, haven't we? Also looks like the site predicts a fast moving storm w/ sunny weather by early to midweek...looks like Sunday and Monday will be the indoor days here in the TB area......hope it's as benign as the site predicts.

https://www.windy.com/27.948/-82.458...58,8,m:erJadRJ
That site, as well as Ventusky, is interesting. Both are showing winds of about 40mph for my area. But I then plotted right in the eye of the hurricane I'm seeing wind speeds that are only (used loosely) 70-80mph, so maybe take with a grain of salt.
 
Old 09-07-2017, 12:54 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
27,798 posts, read 32,431,145 times
Reputation: 14611
Quote:
Originally Posted by sinatras View Post
I do not understand the evac orders if this thing is going to barely impact us.

Heck I get more winds from your typical PM summer downpour.
think they're more concerned about water/surge than winds - with such a broad sweeping storm, perhaps the coastal areas along the Gulf will get flooded.
 
Old 09-07-2017, 12:55 PM
 
Location: -"`-._,-'"`-._, ☀ Sunny Florida ☀ ,-"`-._,-'"`-.
1,357 posts, read 1,242,093 times
Reputation: 1324
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarc View Post
Does anyone know when the official storm track updates come out? I know they come out on the fives (am and pm). Do they also come out on the elevenses?
The new update just came out recently. Here's the update for 18z and compare to 12z. Slight movement of paths toward west once again, now hugging the Florida east coast with Georgia in it's sights. Still have those two nasty blue outlier paths that show coming up through the state.



Attached Thumbnails
Irma! Are you prepared for this storm that seems to be heading out way!-09071718z.png  
 
Old 09-07-2017, 01:09 PM
 
5,687 posts, read 7,182,040 times
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I was thinking more along the lines of the cone, but thank you for that.
 
Old 09-07-2017, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Tampa, FL
42 posts, read 44,392 times
Reputation: 33
Looks like my wife and I picked a great time to move to the area from out of state We'll be arriving next Friday - seems like any storm will have passed by then however. Stay safe everyone! I like this thread as it's much more informative about what is going on down there then all the drama you hear on the news...
 
Old 09-07-2017, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Florida
7,246 posts, read 7,074,940 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarc View Post
I was thinking more along the lines of the cone, but thank you for that.
Remember that the cone does not indicate the size of the storm. The cone is just a probability of where the storm could go.


For example, the white line is the outer extreme of probability - meaning a very, very slim chance that's where the storm will be.


Looking at the storm on satellite makes the storm area appear huge, but most of the forecasters will tell you that the storm area is about 50 miles from the actual eye. So if the eye is centered about 10 miles to the east (in the Atlantic) of the east coast, then the storm reaches 40 miles inland on the east coast.


Yes, that's a simplification of it but beyond that 50 mile zone it's not going to be bad at all. So, calculate where 50 miles is from your home, and if the eye is projected to be more than 50 miles away, you're probably not going to get anything terrible.


Which is why this evacuation order is really not that bad. Since zone A includes all mobile homes, and people in mobile homes should get out, that's why they called for the evacuation.


Our house is about 100-200 feet from the next zone. We're not going anywhere.
 
Old 09-07-2017, 02:21 PM
 
Location: -"`-._,-'"`-._, ☀ Sunny Florida ☀ ,-"`-._,-'"`-.
1,357 posts, read 1,242,093 times
Reputation: 1324
Quote:
Originally Posted by kmarc View Post
I was thinking more along the lines of the cone, but thank you for that.
This one?


BucFan posted this in message #90 with a direct link from the site I believe as it's updating each time you view it.
Attached Thumbnails
Irma! Are you prepared for this storm that seems to be heading out way!-203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png  
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