Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Florida > Tampa Bay
 [Register]
Tampa Bay Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 12-08-2010, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Sunny Florida
7,136 posts, read 12,629,704 times
Reputation: 9547

Advertisements

I believe Jacksonville is considered safer than Tampa, but it's also a bit colder.
Worrying about hurricanes is not productive.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 12-08-2010, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Michigan
5,458 posts, read 6,071,468 times
Reputation: 7972
I know I've said it here before but every time I read "Tampa never gets hit" I'm reminded of when I first moved to Florida. I moved to Jensen Beach, Florida, which I was told "never gets hit." Well, several direct hits later.....

Having been through several, unlike craig I will be very happy to never live through one again. But there are many ways to prepare and if you rent or buy somewhere out of an evacuation zone, select a concrete home and other precautions you should be OK for most storms. Nowhere is without its hazards.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-08-2010, 08:20 PM
 
2 posts, read 4,964 times
Reputation: 11
I moved to Tampa in 05 and my house was in the eye of 2 and got hit indirectly by 2 more that year. I had roof damage and some water damage inside but nothing too major. The worst part was being without power for almost 3 days in the heat of the summer after on of them. Since then we have not had anything come close enough to do anything more than an average "bad thunderstorm."
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-09-2010, 05:16 AM
 
30,172 posts, read 20,894,173 times
Reputation: 11817
Quote:
Originally Posted by thisguy72 View Post
I moved to Tampa in 05 and my house was in the eye of 2 and got hit indirectly by 2 more that year. I had roof damage and some water damage inside but nothing too major. The worst part was being without power for almost 3 days in the heat of the summer after on of them. Since then we have not had anything come close enough to do anything more than an average "bad thunderstorm."
We had nothing in the Tampa area in 05. Ya must mean 04 when we had some wind from two state crossing storms from the east coast.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-09-2010, 02:57 PM
 
Location: Earth
1,479 posts, read 5,067,254 times
Reputation: 1440
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshD View Post
I am moving to tampa soon and i wanna know if tampa gets hit by lots hurricanes or which part of FL gets hit the least. Thanks
Some places have been hit more than others, but here's the thing: if you flip a coin 9 times and you get heads every time, what are the odds you'll get tails on the 10th flip?

The answer is 50/50. As we say in the world of finance, "past performance does not guarantee future results."
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-09-2010, 03:28 PM
 
2,729 posts, read 5,176,334 times
Reputation: 2357
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eastern Roamer View Post
Some places have been hit more than others, but here's the thing: if you flip a coin 9 times and you get heads every time, what are the odds you'll get tails on the 10th flip?

The answer is 50/50. As we say in the world of finance, "past performance does not guarantee future results."
If I get head 9 out of 9, I wouldn't give a 50/50 chance for the next toss to come tail. The coin is biased ,so would be the chance of tail coming out the next toss .

Seriously though, Hurricanes are not random as you imply to suggest. But they are very uncertain. There is a huge diference between randomness and uncertianity.

What you gave in finance example as related to coin fliping is only one type, i.e., random walk model. There are a lot of models that certainly show past as predictor to future and works greate.

Bottom line is places that get hit a lot in the past will have a higher chance (more than 50/50) of getting hit in future simply because Hurricanes are not random processes.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-09-2010, 05:32 PM
 
Location: Tampa
1,317 posts, read 2,294,534 times
Reputation: 508
Theoretically, if you flip a coin 9 times and get heads 9 times, it still has absolutely no bearing on the 10th flip if the coin is true and not flawed. You still only have a 50% chance of getting heads. Now, the chance of getting heads every time decreases exponentially with each flip, but that is only do to the law of chance. Your chances grow slimmer the higher the number, but each individual flip is still 50/50.

Just Sayin...
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-09-2010, 09:04 PM
 
2,729 posts, read 5,176,334 times
Reputation: 2357
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigm1841 View Post
Theoretically, if you flip a coin 9 times and get heads 9 times, it still has absolutely no bearing on the 10th flip if the coin is true and not flawed. You still only have a 50% chance of getting heads. Now, the chance of getting heads every time decreases exponentially with each flip, but that is only do to the law of chance. Your chances grow slimmer the higher the number, but each individual flip is still 50/50.

Just Sayin...
Now you have to explain that! There is no exponential or any other function at all that explain the occurance of head or tail on coin flipping, if the coin is fair. Just 50/50, that's it.

But your first sentence is correct. What I jocked was that the probability of getting 9 out of 9 head in a row on fair coin is small (= 0.2% chance, most probably only a flawed coin would be able to do that).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-10-2010, 06:39 AM
 
Location: Palm Harbor, FL
463 posts, read 1,044,007 times
Reputation: 1304
Lived here since 89', no direct hits in this area. I think you should focus more on what area appeals to you and less on the chances of it getting hit by a hurricane. The odds are really very minimal.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 12-10-2010, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Tampa
1,317 posts, read 2,294,534 times
Reputation: 508
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeInDenudinFL View Post
Now you have to explain that! There is no exponential or any other function at all that explain the occurance of head or tail on coin flipping, if the coin is fair. Just 50/50, that's it.

But your first sentence is correct. What I jocked was that the probability of getting 9 out of 9 head in a row on fair coin is small (= 0.2% chance, most probably only a flawed coin would be able to do that).
I used the word improperly I guess. I wasnt making reference to an exponential function. I was trying to say... you have a 50/50 chance of flipping heads on one toss, but the more times you try to toss only heads, your chances grow increasingly slimmer.

You are more likely to flip heads two times in a row then ten times in a row.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Settings
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2020 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Florida > Tampa Bay

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top