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Old 03-25-2010, 07:10 AM
 
Location: East Tennessee
3,927 posts, read 10,610,764 times
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At this time, the amount of inventory is so low it's pathetic. My February 2010 report showed inventory hovering just above February 2006. Peak inventory was in July 2007. There are buyers sitting on the sidelines ready to buy (self included). Homes that were passed over the first time are now getting second and third looks. I'm searching through withdrawn and expired listings looking for qualified properties.

For shadow inventory, is everyone just repeating media speculation or is it reality? Since Florida is a disclosure state, go to the clerk's website and search for deed transfers to your favorite bank; go to the county Property Appraiser website and search by bank name. It's just not there. Are the banks delaying foreclosure? I wish I knew.

Recently, a bank-owned townhouse in good condition came on the market. A buyer I was working with liked it and made a full price offer without delay. On the market two days and 30 days to close. The townhouse also appraised for $13,000 more than the contract price. Welcome to the new normal.

Being a realist, I don't play the speculation game or predict the future. If I had any idea what would happen next, I would have prevented the mess we're in now.

Last edited by TampaKaren; 03-25-2010 at 08:02 AM..
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:04 AM
 
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Nobody knows where any of this is headed (or if they do, "they" ain't talkin'). We don't know if we might crash all of 80% like Japan did. We don't know if we are stable for a while. We don't know if we might pop up a bit, if, for instance, the Euro crashes before the dollar does and there is flight to anything American, including real estate. We just don't know.

So all you can do is to make your decision based upon what you do know. Does it cost more to rent or to own, as the op originally suggested. Are interest rates the lowest they've been since the 1950s. Is the government giving you free money to buy? If purchasing income property, would returns be better than a money market? Do you feel safer with money in the market, in a bank, in land, all of which carry risk of losing principal. Are you planning to stay in the house for at least five to ten years?

Go with what you know and know as much as you can. Research the price history of houses in the area. Adjust for inflaton and subtract all the bubble years. Look at the history of rents in the area. Look at the rent to purchase ratios and their history. Look at when this country was stable. Forget the bubble as if it never existed. Do not take those values into consideration. They mean nothing when considering what to do with your money today.

Look at the amount of current foreclosures in the area which have been recorded. Many are indeed in the hands of the banks even though records show them owned by individuals still. How do you know? Look at the financing on the houses around the one you want to buy for future foreclosures not yet on the books. These individuals are owner in name alone but not in practical reality. One of my neighbors hasn't made a mortgage payment in almost a year and have been evicted from their house even though the county still shows them as the owner. So allow for the time it takes for things to get recorded. Are the majority of properties around you ATM'd to death? Are a good number of them free & clear? Are there more fixed rate than adjustable mortgages in the area? What is employment like in the area? Etc. Etc.

I bought a property here in 2009 and even if it has gone down some (which it has not, even if the county lowered my taxes, thank you) I'd still be happy with my purchase as, having done my research before putting down my money, I know I bought at a 1993/1994 inflation adjusted price. And, based upon what rents this property would command today, I know I paid 50% off what the 1999/2000 price/rent ratio indicates the property is worth. Since I bought, two other comps in my immediate area have sold for 20% more than what I paid per square foot of house.

I'm considering buying another but before I invest even more I am researching even deeper into the area. Soon I will know the financing on every one of the 300 houses in my area. So far I've checked out 59 of my neighbors' houses. Of those, I found 27% owned free & clear; 12% have been ATM'd to death or are deeply underwater and in danger of future foreclosure whether or not preceedings have yet begun; 15% could get themselves in trouble if their luck does not hold out; and 46% are financed well with fixed mortgages by financially responsible people who have not destroyed their own equity.

Anyone who doubts the shadow inventory just needs to check all the current foreclosures which are not yet on the market. Deeper into the shadow are those still making payments on their mortgages with money they ATM'd (read: stole). Don't believe it? Here's one of my neighbors. They "own" a house purchased early in the bubble for $250k. The owner originally started with a very reasonable $150k mortgage, so had a stake in the game. But then as prices increased (& this area actually did not bubble all that much) this "owner" then took out another $300plus thousand dollar mortgage and then another mortgage just under $100k so that now there is between 500,000 & 600,000 worth of paper on a house that is probably worth in today's market $250,000. Where is the other $250,000? In the "owner's" (read: thief's) pocket.


So study before you buy, if you decide to buy. Know what you are getting into. Look realistically at your own finances and and what things cost and at the condition of the area of your choice and then make your decision based upon all that instead of upon a gaze into a crystal ball, so that regardless of what the crystal ball says, you will be as safe and as well off as you can within reason be.

Last edited by housingcrashsurvivor; 03-25-2010 at 09:26 AM..
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Old 03-25-2010, 09:39 AM
 
3,283 posts, read 4,796,851 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor View Post
Anyone who doubts the shadow inventory just needs to check all the current foreclosures which are not yet on the market. Deeper into the shadow are those still making payments on their mortgages with money they ATM'd (read: stole). Don't believe it? Here's one of my neighbors. They "own" a house purchased early in the bubble for $250k. The owner originally started with a very reasonable $150k mortgage, so had a stake in the game. But then as prices increased (& this area actually did not bubble all that much) this "owner" then took out another $300plus thousand dollar mortgage and then another mortgage just under $100k so that now there is between 500,000 & 600,000 worth of paper on a house that is probably worth in today's market $250,000. Where is the other $250,000? In the "owner's" (read: thief's) pocket.
i found your last post annoying yet informative at the same time. informative because you brought up the possibility that we could find out what people owe on their homes and cc's. i didn't know this was possible and would appreciate it you could tell me how you do this.

i was a little annoyed with the judgmental content though. you might think that people stole the money, but they did it with the permission of the banks, the govt and by extension YOU the depositor in these banks. in fact, i'd argue that they were ENCOURAGED to do so. (perhaps if your money in the bank was not federally guaranteed, you/we might have paid a bit more attention to what the banks were doing with your money. - i guess that's the topic for another thread though)
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:10 AM
 
2,727 posts, read 4,605,189 times
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Originally Posted by 58robbo View Post
i found your last post annoying yet informative at the same time. informative because you brought up the possibility that we could find out what people owe on their homes and cc's. i didn't know this was possible and would appreciate it you could tell me how you do this.

i was a little annoyed with the judgmental content though. you might think that people stole the money, but they did it with the permission of the banks, the govt and by extension YOU the depositor in these banks. in fact, i'd argue that they were ENCOURAGED to do so. (perhaps if your money in the bank was not federally guaranteed, you/we might have paid a bit more attention to what the banks were doing with your money. - i guess that's the topic for another thread though)
No, there is no way to know what somebody owes in their mortgatge and CC without running thier credit history, which nobody would give to him.

What he did was "advanced" speculation: looking at the house purchase price, then looking at the mortgaged amount ORIGINALLY financed, looking at home equity line credit limit (which there is no way of telling that how much of that balance are being used), and like you said judging by that. If somebody went to foreclosure then what's owed may be public otherwise, no. But all thing told though such researches are valueble.To say somebody is in the brink of collaps by just this info is way overblown.

Last edited by Pragmaticus; 03-25-2010 at 10:37 AM..
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:12 AM
 
Location: East Tennessee
3,927 posts, read 10,610,764 times
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Robbo, as I mentioned in a previous post, Florida is a disclosure state. Mortgages are recorded with the Clerk of the Circuit Court; most have a free online record search. The Notes are not recorded and you cannot find out the balance. But you can certainly see the mortgage, terms, amount, and date recorded. The easiest way to do this is go to the Property Appraiser website and do a look up by address. Make a note of the owner of record. Now go to the Clerk's website and do a search on that name. This should get you started.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:28 AM
 
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lolol. Be as annoyed with me as pleases you. I never thought I could please everyone and I do not try. I do believe in a free flow of information and also I enjoy helping others, as I can & if I can, be as well off as they can be because I think the world works better that way.

That one person gets annoyed with me because I point out the high unemployment here, for instance, and assumes I only see lots of unemployment because they think I am unemployed when I only cited facts to express my compassion for those who can not find the work they need to survive here, is beyond my control. My concern then was not for me but for the guy who had to move out of state and live in a basement apartment to support his family above ground here.

Sometimes compassion shows best with love, sometimes it comes off best with a baseball bat, because not everyone learns from love. That I unlovingly call someone a thief who took money that was not theirs (because I do not love that) is nothing more than a baseball bat hitting the truth.

If I leave $100 on the desk top or if I kept $100 in the desk draw and you are working in my house, then you are no less a thief if you did not have to open my draw to take my money. And I am not complicit in your theft for having left my money on top of my desk in my house. It is my money, it is my desk, it is my house. And I shouldn't have to hide my money to protect it from your thievery.

Now, by calling the "home owner" a thief, I'm not saying that the banks were not also complicit in this theft. I would assume also the appraisers complicit certainly got their fee for that and might have gotten money on the side for all I know. But the banks' & the appraisers' & even the realtors' (if involved) complicity does not by a fraction of an iota negate the guilt of the home "owner" who took that $100 off the top of my desk in the first place. They only add their own guilt to the entire situation. They do not take any guilt away from any party to the theft.

As to your absurd comment that I am responsible for not keeping a better eye on my deposited money in the bank, I'll note that I also pay my taxes to fund the regulation & protection of these banks. So not only am I not, as you suggest, complicit in my neighbor's bank robbery, but rather, I got screwed twice, at least. Because my money that I paid to protect my funds was misapproprated, my money that I save will be inflated away as money is printed to prop up what my neighbor helped destroy and my house is in danger of losing value when my neighbor runs out of ATM funds to pay his now exhorbitant mortgage or when he simply walks away with all those funds.

So, um, my judgment? Surely you jest.

As to studying the funding of the houses in your area, just check county clerk's records.
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Old 03-25-2010, 10:41 AM
 
1,500 posts, read 2,917,105 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MeInDenudinFL View Post
No, there is no way to know what somebody owes in their mortgatge and CC without running thier credit history, which nobody would give to him.

What he did was "advanced" speculation: looking at the house purchase price, then looking at the mortgaged amount ORIGINALLY finaced, looking at home equity line credit limit (which there is no way of telling that how much of that balance are being used), and like you said judging by that. If somebody went to foreclosure then what's owed may be public otherwise, no. But all thing told though such researches are valueble.To say somebody is in the brink of collaps by just this info is way overblown.
You can tell which is a home equity line and which is a mortgage. A first mortgage, a second mortgage. You can tell if the mortgage if fixed or adjustable and the particulars of those.

Regardless of how much principal is paid back on a mortgage, even if the mortgage is partly paid, you can figure the monthly payments based upon the mortgages. If the 2nd or third mortgage was used to pay off a former mortgage (a refi) you will see a satisfaction of that original mortgage. Otherwise, it is just more money taken out on the house.

Based upon current sales and how much paper is on a house, you can figure how much a house is underwater which gives you an idea as to whether an "owner" might walk.

This is why I noted that I subdivided catagories into ones that seemed in imminent danger and others I thought might pull it off if their luck were to hold out.

Obviously, I do not know their income, but as I stated, we only know what we know. And the more we know, the better.

This isn't speculation. This is gathering as much information on an area so that you can be as safe as possible in determining what sort of investment to make there as a place to live, not as a place to flip. No guarantees, certainly. And certainly I'm not suggesting anyone speculate in real estate. All I did was offer a good way to be as safe as you can be if you are determined to buy into this market, which, I personally believe, and not that I haven't been wrong before, can be a good idea given due diligence.

Last edited by housingcrashsurvivor; 03-25-2010 at 10:54 AM..
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:11 AM
 
2,727 posts, read 4,605,189 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor View Post
You can tell which is a home equity line and which is a mortgage. A first mortgage, a second mortgage. You can tell if the mortgage if fixed or adjustable and the particulars of those.

Regardless of how much principal is paid back on a mortgage, even if the mortgage is partly paid, you can figure the monthly payments based upon the mortgages. If the 2nd or third mortgage was used to pay off a former mortgage (a refi) you will see a satisfaction of that original mortgage. Otherwise, it is just more money taken out on the house.

Based upon current sales and how much paper is on a house, you can figure how much a house is underwater which gives you an idea as to whether an "owner" might walk.

This is why I noted that I subdivided catagories into ones that seemed in imminent danger and others I thought might pull it off if their luck were to hold out.

Obviously, I do not know their income, but as I stated, we only know what we know. And the more we know, the better.

This isn't speculation. This is gathering as much information on an area so that you can be as safe as possible in determining what sort of investment to make there as a place to live, not as a place to flip. No guarantees, certainly. And certainly I'm not suggesting anyone speculate in real estate. All I did was offer a good way to be as safe as you can be if you are determined to buy into this market, which, I personally believe, and not that I haven't been wrong before, can be a good idea given due diligence.
You CAN NOT figure the monthly payment! There is what's called interest rate. There is no way for you to know that. Doing this I call it speculation because you don't have all the info to come to that figure.
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Old 03-25-2010, 11:27 AM
 
3,283 posts, read 4,796,851 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by housingcrashsurvivor View Post
You can tell which is a home equity line and which is a mortgage. A first mortgage, a second mortgage. You can tell if the mortgage if fixed or adjustable and the particulars of those.

Regardless of how much principal is paid back on a mortgage, even if the mortgage is partly paid, you can figure the monthly payments based upon the mortgages. If the 2nd or third mortgage was used to pay off a former mortgage (a refi) you will see a satisfaction of that original mortgage. Otherwise, it is just more money taken out on the house.

Based upon current sales and how much paper is on a house, you can figure how much a house is underwater which gives you an idea as to whether an "owner" might walk.

This is why I noted that I subdivided catagories into ones that seemed in imminent danger and others I thought might pull it off if their luck were to hold out.

Obviously, I do not know their income, but as I stated, we only know what we know. And the more we know, the better.

This isn't speculation. This is gathering as much information on an area so that you can be as safe as possible in determining what sort of investment to make there as a place to live, not as a place to flip. No guarantees, certainly. And certainly I'm not suggesting anyone speculate in real estate. All I did was offer a good way to be as safe as you can be if you are determined to buy into this market, which, I personally believe, and not that I haven't been wrong before, can be a good idea given due diligence.

i agree with you that you can reasonably assume the general position of the regions inhabitants with this info, particularly the percentage of homeowners who are mortgage free. i think that this could potentially be very useful. what do you do though, do you put every address within a certain distance from your home and check their mortgage info? perhaps that's a bit of an overkill but if every buyer did this type of homework we wouldn't be in this mess.

(still wouldn't refer to an optimistic debtor as a thief though unless they lied about their income in which case they should be charged with fraud and the bank should be charged with criminal neglegence)
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Old 03-25-2010, 12:00 PM
 
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Originally Posted by MeInDenudinFL View Post
You CAN NOT figure the monthly payment! There is what's called interest rate. There is no way for you to know that. Doing this I call it speculation because you don't have all the info to come to that figure.
Persnickety much?

Grain of salt?

Your objection to my suggestion that you can have an idea of what payments are is silly because at the very least you can take the very best interest rate they might have which is about what is being offered today and figure from there. Or you can research interest rates which were available at the time the mortgage in question was originated. If it was refied with the same bank at a later date, then you have that info as well. Certainly they could have paid down a point. Bla bla bla. But you can also get an idea of what they were working with to start by what down they placed. What are the odds they are paying off a mortgage early when they financed 95% of the cost of the home?

Does that tell the whole story? Certainly not. As I already noted in a prvious post a neighbor who started with a significant equity stake but then later ATM'd the house nonetheless.

But aside from our own ability of guestimation, you will find many recorded contracts with the interest rates available for public viewing so you don't even have to do the abovementioned leg work which would get you into the ballpark.

For instance here's one of my neighbor's I consider about 30% underwater:

Here you can see how much is owed as of the origination date:
http://i774.photobucket.com/albums/yy30/housingcrashsurvivor/mortgage.jpg (broken link)

Here you can see the original interest rate:
http://i774.photobucket.com/albums/yy30/housingcrashsurvivor/mortgage1.jpg (broken link)

And here you can see how interest rates will be adjusted:
http://i774.photobucket.com/albums/yy30/housingcrashsurvivor/mortgage2.jpg (broken link)
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