Latest population estimates for metro & micro areas (Memphis, Knoxville: home, college)

[nashvols]

Data is from bizjournals...these lists come out fairly often.

Population of New York City area reaches 19 million - The Business Journals

Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Nashville - 1,639,245 (2012) - 1,589,934 (2010) - +49,311

Memphis - 1,334,945 (2012) - 1,316,100 (2010) - +18,845

Knoxville - 711,338 (2012) - 698,030 (2010) - +13,308

Chattanooga - 537,004 (2012) - 528,143 (2010) - +8,861

Kingsport-Bristol - 311,378 (2012) - 309,544 (2010) - +1,834

Clarksville - 282,329 (2012) - 273,949 (2010) - +8,380

Johnson City - 201,789 (2012) - 198,716 (2010) - +3,073

Morristown - 138,805 (2012) - 136,608 (2010) - +2,197

Cleveland - 117,969 (2012) - 115,788 (2010) - +2,181

Jackson - 117,150 (2012) - 115,425 (2010) - +1,725

Micropolitan Statistical Areas

Cookeville - 108,556 (2012) - 106,042 (2010) - +2,514

Tullahoma - 100,964 (2012) - 100,210 (2010) - +754

Sevierville - 92,975 (2012) - 89,889 (2010) - +3,086

Columbia - 82,860 (2012) - 80,956 (2010) - +1,904

Greeneville - 69,579 (2012) - 68,831 (2010) - +748

Crossville - 57,556 (2012) - 56,053 (2010) - +1,503

Harriman - 54,318 (2012) - 54,181 (2010) - +137

Athens - 52,595 (2012) - 52,266 (2010) - +329

Humboldt - 50,102 (2012) - 49,683 (2010) - +419

Shelbyville - 46,181 (2012) - 45,058 (2010) - +1,123

Lawrenceburg - 42,447 (2012) - 41,869 (2010) - +578

La Follette - 40,759 (2012) - 40,716 (2010) - +43

McMinnville - 40,141 (2012) - 39,839 (2010) - +302

Dyersburg - 38,525 (2012) - 38,335 (2010) - +190

Union City - 38,482 (2012) - 38,620 (2010) - (-138)

Newport - 35,815 (2012) - 35,662 (2010) - +153

Martin - 35,364 (2012) - 35,021 (2010) - +343

Paris - 32,590 (2012) - 32,330 (2010) - +260

Lewisburg - 31,366 (2012) - 30,617 (2010) - +749

Brownsville - 18,598 (2012) - 18,787 (2010) - (-189)

Combined Statistical Areas

Nashville CSA - 1,722,105 - +51,215
--Nashville MSA- 1,639,245 - +49,311
--Columbia msa - 82,860 - +1,904

Knoxville CSA - 1,074,010 - +18,924
--Knoxville MSA - 711,338 - +13,308
--Morristown MSA - 138,805 - +2,197
--Sevierville msa - 92,975 - +3,086
--Harriman msa - 54,318 - +137
--La Follette msa - 40,759 - +43
--Newport msa- 35,815 - +153

Chattanooga CSA - 707,568 - +11,371
--Chattanooga MSA - 537,004 - +8,861
--Cleveland MSA - 117,969 - +2,181
--Athens msa - 52,595 - +329

Tri Cities CSA - 513,167 - +4,907
--Kingsport-Bristol MSA - 311,378 - +1,834
--Johnson City MSA - 201,789 - +3,073

Jackson CSA - 167,252 - +2,144
--Jackson MSA - 117,150 - +1,725
--Humboldt msa - 50,102 - +419

Union City-Martin CSA - 73,846 - +205
--Union City msa - 38,482 - (-138)
--Martin msa - 35,364 - +343


All Statistical Areas

Nashville CSA - 1,722,105 - +51,215

Memphis MSA - 1,334,945 - +18,845

Knoxville CSA - 1,074,010 - +18,924

Chattanooga CSA - 707,568 - +11,371

Tri Cities CSA - 513,167 - +4,907

Clarksville MSA - 282,329 - +8,380

Jackson CSA - 167,252 - +2,144

Cookeville msa - 108,556 - +2,514

Tullahoma msa - 100,964 - +754

Union City-Martin CSA - 73,846 - +205

Greeneville msa - 69,579 - +748

Crossville msa - 57,556 - +1,503

Shelbyville msa - 46,181 - +1,123

Lawrenceburg msa - 42,447 - +578

McMinnville msa - 40,141 - +302

Dyersburg msa - 38,525 - +190

Paris msa - 32,590 - +260

Lewisburg msa - 31,366 - +749

Brownsville msa - 18,598 - (-189)

[JMT]

I love numbers, and I'm glad you posted this. I don't see any surprises here. A few interesting things to note:

*The Nashville MSA is growing faster than the Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga MSAs combined.

*However, the Chattanoga MSA is growing twice as fast now than it was in the 1990s. I won't be surprised if its growth rate catches up to Knoxville's within the next few years.

*The bulk (probably 90%) of the Morristown MSA's growth is in Jefferson County, particularly in the Dandridge area. It'll be interesting to see if Jefferson County stays in the Morristown MSA or is returned to the Knoxville MSA. If it doesn't happen now, it'll probably happen after the next Census.

*Maury County's growth slowed quite a bit from the last decade, almost assuredly because Saturn in Spring Hill shut down. Now that GM is in the process of opening the factory again and re-hiring thousands of auto workers, I suspect Maury County's growth rate will pick up again.

*Crossville's growth rate has slowed down so that now Cookeville is the fastest-growing area in the 14-county Upper Cumberland region.

*Poor old Union City will probably lose even more people in the next couple of years now that the Goodyear plant has closed and put nearly 2,000 people out of work. That is heart breaking.

[jabogitlu]

Andy and I have some friends that moved to Dandridge for work. She commutes to Knoxville to work at the children's hospital, and most of their friends commute to Knoxville as well. I've never lived around that particular area, but it would seem like Jeff County is more attuned to Knoxville.

But, at the same time, many, many people in east Greene County commute to Johnson City, but Greene County isn't part of that MSA, either. Sometimes the census separations seem a little... on the fly?

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by JMT

I love numbers, and I'm glad you posted this. I don't see any surprises here. A few interesting things to note:

*The Nashville MSA is growing faster than the Memphis, Knoxville, and Chattanooga MSAs combined.

*However, the Chattanoga MSA is growing twice as fast now than it was in the 1990s. I won't be surprised if its growth rate catches up to Knoxville's within the next few years.

*The bulk (probably 90%) of the Morristown MSA's growth is in Jefferson County, particularly in the Dandridge area. It'll be interesting to see if Jefferson County stays in the Morristown MSA or is returned to the Knoxville MSA. If it doesn't happen now, it'll probably happen after the next Census.

*Maury County's growth slowed quite a bit from the last decade, almost assuredly because Saturn in Spring Hill shut down. Now that GM is in the process of opening the factory again and re-hiring thousands of auto workers, I suspect Maury County's growth rate will pick up again.

*Crossville's growth rate has slowed down so that now Cookeville is the fastest-growing area in the 14-county Upper Cumberland region.

*Poor old Union City will probably lose even more people in the next couple of years now that the Goodyear plant has closed and put nearly 2,000 people out of work. That is heart breaking.

The things that stuck out to me:

*The Clarksville MSA (mainly Montgomery County) is growing nearly as fast (numerically) as Chattanooga.

*Sevierville/Sevier County continues to have very strong growth for its size. Even outpacing Johnson City.

*Select small towns/micro areas are growing, while others are languishing. Cookeville and Sevierville are doing very well. Crossville, Shelbyville, and Columbia (to a point) are doing fine. Lewisburg isn't doing bad for its size. A lot of the other small towns are barely doing anything.




Also, I wonder if a slower growing Maury (as well as jobs lost at GM) will lead to the county being added to Nashville's MSA. The more population in the Maury side of Spring Hill, the greater those chances will be.

[jchometeam]

Nashville better be careful, that seems like awful fast growth to me. Adding 25k people each year is a strain on every service a city provides.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by jchometeam

Nashville better be careful, that seems like awful fast growth to me. Adding 25k people each year is a strain on every service a city provides.

That's for the entire metro. That's likely 4-7k per year in Rutherford, Davidson, Williamson, Wilson, and Sumner counties, and a little bit in the others.

The growth was faster from 2000-2007.

[mcredux]

It's worth noting not all population growth is created equal.

A large portion of Nashville's population growth is from an influx of educated professionals and skilled technicians (healthcare workers, skilled machinists, etc.) This is occurring despite the fact that national population mobility is near 50 year lows because of the housing crash.

Without the recession, the disparity in population growth would likely even be greater, with Nashville accounting for maybe 70% of the all population growth in the entire state. The same goes for jobs outlook. Outside of Nashville, there is little in the way of job growth or private enterprise. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Nashville is in effect skimming the cream of the better college grads in the state. If you're smart, you go to Nashville or Atlanta. If not so smart, return home and live near mom and dad.

While all of this is great news for the Mid-TN, it's fairly sobering for the rest of state.

[nashvols]

I didn't want to start a completely new thread, since it seems there are only a handful of people interested in the population data...but the US Census just released their official population estimates for 2011. These are obviously a little different than the Business Journal's numbers.

Nashville - 1,617,142 +27,208
--Davidson - 635,475 +8,794
--Rutherford - 268,921 +6,317
--Williamson - 188,560 +5,378
--Sumner - 163,686 +3,041
--Wilson - 116,617 +2,624
--Robertson - 67,106 +823
--Dickson - 50,081 +415
--Cheatham - 39,078 -27
--Hickman - 24,406 -284
--Macon - 22,485 +237
--Smith - 19,150 -16
--Cannon - 13,761 -40
--Trousdale - 7,816 -54

Memphis - 1,325,605 +9,505
--Shelby - 935,088 +7,444
--DeSoto, MS - 164,053 +2,801
--Tipton - 61,293 +212
--Crittenden, AR - 50,525 -377
--Fayette - 38,513 +100
--Marshall, MS - 36,786 -358
--Tate, MS - 27,819 -1,067
--Tunica, MS 10,628 -150

Knoxville - 704,500 +6,470
--Knox - 436,929 +4,703
--Blount - 123,901 +891
--Anderson - 75,233 +104
--Loudon - 49,237 +681
--Union - 19,200 +91

Chattanooga - 533,372 +5,229
--Hamilton - 340,855 +4,392
--Walker, GA - 68,848 +92
--Catoosa, GA - 64,530 +588
--Marion - 28,223 -14
--Dade, GA - 16,570 -63
--Sequatchie - 14,346 +234

Kingsport-Bristol - 309,753 +209
--Sullivan - 157,419 +596
--Hawkins - 56,671 -162
--Washington, VA - 54,827 -49
--Scott, VA - 23,126 -51
--Bristol city, VA - 17,750 -85

Clarksville - 277,701 +3,752
--Montgomery - 176,619 +4,288
--Christian, KY - 73,591 -364
--Trigg, KY - 14,305 -34
--Stewart - 13,186 -138

Johnson City - 199,818 +1,102
--Washington - 124,353 +1,374
--Carter - 57,185 -239
--Unicoi - 18,280 -33

Morristown - 137,494 +886
--Hamblen - 63,062 +518
--Jefferson - 51,666 +259
--Grainger - 22,766 +109

Cleveland - 116,834 +1,046
--Bradley - 100,055 +1,092
--Polk - 16,779 -46

Jackson - 115,396 -29
--Madison - 98,255 -39
--Chester - 17,141 +10

Cookeville - 106,498 +456
--Putnam - 72,958 +637
--Overton - 22,169 +86
--Jackson - 11,371 -267

Tullahoma - 100,344 +134
--Coffee - 53,016 +220
--Franklin - 40,917 -135
--Moore - 6,411 +49

Sevierville - 91,466 +1,577
--Sevier - 91,466 +1,577

Columbia - 81,509 +553
--Maury - 81,509 +553

Greeneville - 69,339 +508
--Greene - 69,339 +508

Crossville - 56,632 +579
--Cumberland - 56,632 +579

Harriman - 53,838 -343
--Roane - 53,838 -343

Athens - 52,508 +242
--McMinn - 52,508 +242

Humboldt - 49,935 +252
--Gibson - 49,935 +252

Shelbyville - 45,509 +451
--Bedford - 45,509 +451

Lawrenceburg - 42,115 +246
--Lawrence - 42,115 +246

La Follette - 40,512 -204
--Campbell - 40,512 -204

McMinnville - 39,927 +88
--Warren - 39,927 +88

Union City - 38,545 -75
--Obion - 38,545 -75

Dyersburg - 38,192 -143
--Dyer - 38,192 -143

Newport - 35,544 -118
--Cocke - 35,544 -118

Martin - 34,980 -41
--Weakley - 34,980 -41

Paris - 32,352 +22
--Henry - 32,352 +22

Lewisburg - 30,881 +264
--Marshall - 30,881 +264

Brownsville - 18,470 -317
--Haywood - 18,470 -317

Again, these are only estimates. The Census has a tendency to be a bit off sometimes...so if you see something that doesn't look right, it might not be.

[vivelafrance]

So it looks like these are only 1 year's difference, while the biz journal numbers are 2 year's difference, correct? If that's the case then I guess they don't seem too far off from each other.

Cheatham County is a bit surprising, to me. I know it has never been a hot spot in the Nashville metro but I would think that sheer proximity to Nashville and Clarksville would keep it growing.

[nashvols]

Originally Posted by vivelafrance

So it looks like these are only 1 year's difference, while the biz journal numbers are 2 year's difference, correct? If that's the case then I guess they don't seem too far off from each other.

Cheatham County is a bit surprising, to me. I know it has never been a hot spot in the Nashville metro but I would think that sheer proximity to Nashville and Clarksville would keep it growing.

More or less, yeah. They aren't too far apart...but the Census has some places losing people that were a bit surprising.

I don't think Cheatham is really losing any...but it's not gaining much. I think it was hit decently hard by the 2010 floods (especially Kingston Springs & Pegram), so I could see there being a little bit of a population dip. The only city that seems to be really growing up there is Pleasant View.



Also...I found the big county totals a little curious. Davidson and Shelby leading the pack. Although those two are always up there in the raw increase...if they were to lead (and at that growth rate over 10 years), that would certainly be a change from recent trends. Numerically, that's quite an acceleration in growth for both.

Knox and Hamilton look to have pretty healthy numbers, too. Montgomery looks strong. The Nashville ring suburbs (Rutherford, Williamson, Sumner, Wilson) seem to be going at around their normal rate.

I'm a little surprised by Putnam not growing quite as fast. I would've guessed it would be growing twice that fast.