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Old 04-10-2020, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Somewhere below Mason/Dixon
8,082 posts, read 8,588,984 times
Reputation: 13369

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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRR View Post
I do hope that you won't be too disappointed if your dire predictions don't come true.
I pray that I am wrong. Why would you think I would take pleasure in seeing such things unfold. I am truly shocked however at the naivety of some people who are so anxiety ridden over coronavirus that they are willing to destroy the entire economy in order to protect themselves from what really is just a nasty respiratory infection. I see it as mass ignorance of history, economics and basic math. I don’t understand how educated people do not see the danger in intentionally causing a economic depression that we cannot reverse to stop a disease that at its worse could only kill maybe 100k people in this country? Remember in 2017 the flu killed 80k....no one cared about them. A depression will absolutely kill far more. I see this as reckless ignorance and it angers me that my family and I will have to live in the aftermath of all this because I happen to share space in this country with all those who demanded these measures. It’s too bad those who called for this can’t just have their lockdown and economic depression and the rest of us could get our lives back. Governor Lee will find out at reelection time that there were more people who are angry at his caving in to the lockdown trend than there are anxiety wridden coronavirus worriers.
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Old 04-10-2020, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Franklin, TN
6,618 posts, read 11,676,237 times
Reputation: 7331
Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
I pray that I am wrong. Why would you think I would take pleasure in seeing such things unfold. I am truly shocked however at the naivety of some people who are so anxiety ridden over coronavirus that they are willing to destroy the entire economy in order to protect themselves from what really is just a nasty respiratory infection. I see it as mass ignorance of history, economics and basic math.
People are anxiety ridden over the novel coronavirus because it's something that we haven't seen before, and we have no vaccine and no cure. It's not simply a nasty respiratory infection. It affects people in different ways. Some have almost no symptoms, some have mild to moderate symptoms, some people need hospitalization, and some need to be in intensive care. The main problem is the latter two categories. This disease is highly infectious and hard to trace because of it's long incubation time.

It's interesting that you bring up ignorance of history and basic math, because that's what you're seeing here. We have pandemics we can look to in the past that killed millions -- and if everyone acted like business as usual, that's probably what you would see around the world.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
I don’t understand how educated people do not see the danger in intentionally causing a economic depression that we cannot reverse to stop a disease that at its worse could only kill maybe 100k people in this country? Remember in 2017 the flu killed 80k....no one cared about them.
The reason why it might only kill 100k people in this country is because of the drastic measures taken. Imagine how quickly it would spread if we still had schools in session, if 15-50k people were attending sporting events in close proximity, packed restaurants, bars, beaches, etc. The number dead would probably be in the low millions in the US alone. Think of the shortages in personal protective equipment for our healthcare workers right now. Now think of how they would deal with a continuous exponential increase. Think of the number of people that could be saved with medical treatment that would die because there aren't enough workers or beds. You are seeing a taste of that in New York City and Detroit. Imagine if it was nationwide.

In terms of the economy, you might not see a government ordered shutdown of certain sectors as much as you would have companies having to shut down their own operations due to a lack of healthy workers.

Let's also talk about the impact of individuals or families that contract the virus, get hospitalized, and then receive their bills. I doubt many low level, non essential jobs are going to be footing $50k+ medical bills. We're looking at massive unemployment claims right now. If a vast number of people were infected with the virus, we'd probably be looking at massive personal bankruptcies due to medical bills.

Keeping things as usual has its own set of issues. I don't think either side is optimal, but I'd rather choose the side that keeps our healthcare system from being devastated. That way, if I have a serious accident, I don't die in the emergency room lobby because there are no hospital beds.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
A depression will absolutely kill far more. I see this as reckless ignorance and it angers me that my family and I will have to live in the aftermath of all this because I happen to share space in this country with all those who demanded these measures.
A depression could certainly kill more. But how this turns out is purely theoretical at this point. The economy is an incredibly complex system. Even experts have to guess when it comes to things like this. I've heard opinions from across the board on how this will play out long term.

I think there will be lots of job openings from the shuttered or scaled down businesses. I don't think it will return to normal immediately, but I wouldn't be surprised if the unemployment numbers drop quickly, but remain higher than they have in years as businesses still have to adjust.

We'll probably see quite a few failures, both large and small. It's probably going to suck for a lot of people in the immediate aftermath, but I'm fairly confident that it isn't going to be a long term depression. The thing I'm worried about long term is debt. And that's not something we can just ignore.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
It’s too bad those who called for this can’t just have their lockdown and economic depression and the rest of us could get our lives back.
I suppose that could have included a waiver for those that wanted to stay out to refuse medical care if they got infected with Covid-19.

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
Governor Lee will find out at reelection time that there were more people who are angry at his caving in to the lockdown trend than there are anxiety wridden coronavirus worriers.
Maybe where you are that's the case. I don't think that's the sentiment statewide. Thousands of medical workers statewide were, however, pleading for it.

Anybody that thinks we should just let this run wild is not thinking how this will impact our healthcare workers.
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Old 04-10-2020, 05:55 PM
 
Location: Somewhere below Mason/Dixon
8,082 posts, read 8,588,984 times
Reputation: 13369
Quote:
Originally Posted by nashvols View Post
People are anxiety ridden over the novel coronavirus because it's something that we haven't seen before, and we have no vaccine and no cure. It's not simply a nasty respiratory infection. It affects people in different ways. Some have almost no symptoms, some have mild to moderate symptoms, some people need hospitalization, and some need to be in intensive care. The main problem is the latter two categories. This disease is highly infectious and hard to trace because of it's long incubation time.

It's interesting that you bring up ignorance of history and basic math, because that's what you're seeing here. We have pandemics we can look to in the past that killed millions -- and if everyone acted like business as usual, that's probably what you would see around the world.


The reason why it might only kill 100k people in this country is because of the drastic measures taken. Imagine how quickly it would spread if we still had schools in session, if 15-50k people were attending sporting events in close proximity, packed restaurants, bars, beaches, etc. The number dead would probably be in the low millions in the US alone. Think of the shortages in personal protective equipment for our healthcare workers right now. Now think of how they would deal with a continuous exponential increase. Think of the number of people that could be saved with medical treatment that would die because there aren't enough workers or beds. You are seeing a taste of that in New York City and Detroit. Imagine if it was nationwide.

In terms of the economy, you might not see a government ordered shutdown of certain sectors as much as you would have companies having to shut down their own operations due to a lack of healthy workers.

Let's also talk about the impact of individuals or families that contract the virus, get hospitalized, and then receive their bills. I doubt many low level, non essential jobs are going to be footing $50k+ medical bills. We're looking at massive unemployment claims right now. If a vast number of people were infected with the virus, we'd probably be looking at massive personal bankruptcies due to medical bills.

Keeping things as usual has its own set of issues. I don't think either side is optimal, but I'd rather choose the side that keeps our healthcare system from being devastated. That way, if I have a serious accident, I don't die in the emergency room lobby because there are no hospital beds.


A depression could certainly kill more. But how this turns out is purely theoretical at this point. The economy is an incredibly complex system. Even experts have to guess when it comes to things like this. I've heard opinions from across the board on how this will play out long term.

I think there will be lots of job openings from the shuttered or scaled down businesses. I don't think it will return to normal immediately, but I wouldn't be surprised if the unemployment numbers drop quickly, but remain higher than they have in years as businesses still have to adjust.

We'll probably see quite a few failures, both large and small. It's probably going to suck for a lot of people in the immediate aftermath, but I'm fairly confident that it isn't going to be a long term depression. The thing I'm worried about long term is debt. And that's not something we can just ignore.


I suppose that could have included a waiver for those that wanted to stay out to refuse medical care if they got infected with Covid-19.


Maybe where you are that's the case. I don't think that's the sentiment statewide. Thousands of medical workers statewide were, however, pleading for it.

Anybody that thinks we should just let this run wild is not thinking how this will impact our healthcare workers.
I respectfully disagree with your view on the current situation. I believe these shutdowns are far more dangerous to the country than is the virus. I believe depression chaos and unrest is coming. I believe millions will have their lives ruined and maybe millions could lose their lives. Seven million died in the Great Depression of malnutrition. We won’t even talk about the astronomical numbers of dead that would result from a depression caused war. (Yes that is very possible)

Something else worth noting. Much has been written and said about ones politics influencing their opinion regarding covid 19 and the shutdowns. Conservatives have scoffed at the shutdowns and resistant to harming the economy over this. Liberals on the other hand have called for more safety, more government restrictions and seem less concerned with the economy. Proof of the political division regarding the virus is the fact that all the blue states locked down weeks before the red ones did and they currently have more severe restrictions than red states do. Before the stay at home order here in Tennessee it was the blue cities that locked down long before governor Lee caved in to pressure from state democrats. They suggest things like UBI and Medicare for all will save us all from the depression they mandated to begin with. Seems awful convenient for them does it not?

It is a sad state of affairs in this nation when something like a virus becomes political but it appears that it has. Judging by my view and your view I would be willing to bet we political adversaries. Both of our views on this are likely a reflection of our politics.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:35 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
29,335 posts, read 22,169,500 times
Reputation: 36331
Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
It’s not just the professional class of the tri cities that is done.......we are done for as a country. Our fellow citizens fear and panic has destroyed our future.
I don't think it's quite that dire.

Nashville has been attracting people from all over. There is a widely diversified economy there compared to the rest of the state. When things normalize, it'll probably grab even more of the lion's share of the economy.

The real problem is going to be in places like the Tri-Cities where you only have a handful of decent employers, most of whom have laid, furloughed, or even completely closed. Those businesses are going to have a much tougher time of it.
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Old 04-11-2020, 07:53 PM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
5,494 posts, read 3,190,837 times
Reputation: 9021
It looks like Vanderbilt University Medical has come out with their latest models for the virus in Tennessee. There are approximately 10,000 hospital bed in the state.

If we continue with the same social distancing as we are doing now, the virus peak would be the middle of June with 5000 hospitalizations.

If we improved on social distancing the peak would be in the middle of May with 2000-3000 hospitalizations

If we quit social distancing we are pretty much screwed. By mid May 50,000 people would require hospitalization.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Lee proceeds in the face of these projections.
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Old 04-12-2020, 04:23 PM
 
12,542 posts, read 35,001,817 times
Reputation: 9656
Please make posts about national political policies in the Politics forum. Posts not specific to Tennessee in this thread will be deleted, as several have been already.
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Last edited by JMT; 04-12-2020 at 06:08 PM..
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Old 04-15-2020, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Seattle
579 posts, read 268,329 times
Reputation: 744
Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj72 View Post
I respectfully disagree with your view on the current situation. I believe these shutdowns are far more dangerous to the country than is the virus. I believe depression chaos and unrest is coming. I believe millions will have their lives ruined and maybe millions could lose their lives. Seven million died in the Great Depression of malnutrition. We won’t even talk about the astronomical numbers of dead that would result from a depression caused war. (Yes that is very possible)

Something else worth noting. Much has been written and said about ones politics influencing their opinion regarding covid 19 and the shutdowns. Conservatives have scoffed at the shutdowns and resistant to harming the economy over this. Liberals on the other hand have called for more safety, more government restrictions and seem less concerned with the economy. Proof of the political division regarding the virus is the fact that all the blue states locked down weeks before the red ones did and they currently have more severe restrictions than red states do. Before the stay at home order here in Tennessee it was the blue cities that locked down long before governor Lee caved in to pressure from state democrats. They suggest things like UBI and Medicare for all will save us all from the depression they mandated to begin with. Seems awful convenient for them does it not?

It is a sad state of affairs in this nation when something like a virus becomes political but it appears that it has. Judging by my view and your view I would be willing to bet we political adversaries. Both of our views on this are likely a reflection of our politics.
I'm going to have to say that the economic effects are going to be far worse. You have possible suicides that will occur when people have lost everything. The bailout money to corporations+stimulus checks are going to lead to Zimbabwe style hyperinflation. I'm certain other countries are taking note of what's happening here and will not keep their confidence in the US dollar.

A lot of small businesses will not exist after this year. It will be nearly impossible to start anymore afterwhile. All that will be left will largely be lower paying jobs like Wal-Mart, Amazon and maybe fast food. But I predict those are going to be automated out very soon.

You might have healthier people but at what cost?
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:09 PM
 
254 posts, read 124,990 times
Reputation: 323
The cascading effects of an economic collapse would cause millions to die: poverty, starvation, crime, suicide, disease and possibly war. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge this is turning a blind eye to history. We have lived in a brief moment of unprecedented peace and comfort in the west, its on the verge of coming to an end, wake up.
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:28 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
29,335 posts, read 22,169,500 times
Reputation: 36331
Quote:
Originally Posted by JRR View Post
It looks like Vanderbilt University Medical has come out with their latest models for the virus in Tennessee. There are approximately 10,000 hospital bed in the state.

If we continue with the same social distancing as we are doing now, the virus peak would be the middle of June with 5000 hospitalizations.

If we improved on social distancing the peak would be in the middle of May with 2000-3000 hospitalizations

If we quit social distancing we are pretty much screwed. By mid May 50,000 people would require hospitalization.

It will be interesting to see how Governor Lee proceeds in the face of these projections.
People are are assuming that just because the restrictions are lifted means that people will not socially distance. There is going to be considerable voluntary distancing for who knows how long. Many people are not going to return to the way things were before. Masks, sanitizer, and gloves will be commonplace. Many elderly or those with weakened immune systems will probably continue to quarantine or reduce public exposure.

Major events like UT football games may not happen. Restaurants, bars, and nightclubs may run at half capacity or similar. I doubt I'll be on lower Broadway this year. It's not going to look like normal for a good, long while.

With that said, there's a major difference between wide open and a lockdown where I can't even go to a state park.
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:56 PM
JRR
 
Location: Middle Tennessee
5,494 posts, read 3,190,837 times
Reputation: 9021
So we had protests over the weekend throughout the state about the shutdown. Bunches of people close together, hollering, hugging and high-fiving. Some even brought their kids along. What could possibly go wrong from these happenings.
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