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Old 04-29-2019, 06:49 PM
 
2,171 posts, read 669,967 times
Reputation: 6533

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Oh the fact that they consider delivering cars a challenge. Demand is cratering across the entire lineup (even in China), the Chinese just put up a billboard ad in Times Square blasting Model S quality and reliability. Competition is rising, tax credits are ending, Elon thinks nobody can afford their cars, Tesla can’t figure out what price to charge them at day to day (much less forecast what profit they’ll have month to month), Model Y announcement cratered the stock, etc.
it’s good that you are the last remaining optimistic Tesla fan though. I’m sure loyalty will be worth something one day. Let’s just hope you didn’t really put your money where your mouth is.
The Good News is that Tesla is going to start producing cars in China. In fact, Tesla is absolutely the T-Rex of electric car manufacturers.
The Bad News is that they are going to be facing companies like BYD, who is the Godzilla of electric car manufacturers.

The problem I have with Tesla is that its stock price has gotten WAY out in front of its ultimate potential in the marketplace. I don't have a clue where its true stock price should be, but right now, I wouldn't pay more than a hundred bucks a share, and its true value is probably more like $50 per share. Remembering, of course, that price per share for every other company in the universe (except for Uber and Lyft, maybe), is calculated on profits per share, not on pie-in-the-sky, "just wait-'til-next year" profits. I'm thinking that the veil is being pulled back on the Wizard Behind the Curtain, and that Elon Musk is the Engineering equivalent of L. Ron Hubbard (Elon...., L. Ron.....things that make you go hmmm).

Edit: forgot to post the link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ing-like-tesla

Last edited by Curly Q. Bobalink; 04-29-2019 at 06:57 PM..
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Old 04-30-2019, 05:20 AM
 
9,222 posts, read 4,096,639 times
Reputation: 6390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink View Post
The Good News is that Tesla is going to start producing cars in China. In fact, Tesla is absolutely the T-Rex of electric car manufacturers.
The Bad News is that they are going to be facing companies like BYD, who is the Godzilla of electric car manufacturers.

The problem I have with Tesla is that its stock price has gotten WAY out in front of its ultimate potential in the marketplace. I don't have a clue where its true stock price should be, but right now, I wouldn't pay more than a hundred bucks a share, and its true value is probably more like $50 per share. Remembering, of course, that price per share for every other company in the universe (except for Uber and Lyft, maybe), is calculated on profits per share, not on pie-in-the-sky, "just wait-'til-next year" profits. I'm thinking that the veil is being pulled back on the Wizard Behind the Curtain, and that Elon Musk is the Engineering equivalent of L. Ron Hubbard (Elon...., L. Ron.....things that make you go hmmm).

Edit: forgot to post the link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ing-like-tesla
I can agree with that statement. The problem is Tesla almost relies exclusively on future product promises in order to keep their stock price artificially high. As the promises remain unfulfilled, the gimmick becomes less effective, which results in more obscure and outlandish promises (robo taxies, leaf blowers, insurance, etc).
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Old 04-30-2019, 05:40 AM
 
Location: Podunk, IA
5,793 posts, read 2,824,325 times
Reputation: 6385
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
I’m sure loyalty will be worth something one day.
True loyalty is buying one after they become an orphan.

The good news is you'll be able to get one REAL cheap.
The bad news is... well, everything else.
It can work as long as you don't try to daily drive it. That's what I do with my orphan.
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Old 04-30-2019, 11:16 AM
 
876 posts, read 283,274 times
Reputation: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Oh the fact that they consider delivering cars a challenge. Demand is cratering across the entire lineup (even in China), the Chinese just put up a billboard ad in Times Square blasting Model S quality and reliability. Competition is rising, tax credits are ending, Elon thinks nobody can afford their cars, Tesla can’t figure out what price to charge them at day to day (much less forecast what profit they’ll have month to month), Model Y announcement cratered the stock, etc.
it’s good that you are the last remaining optimistic Tesla fan though. I’m sure loyalty will be worth something one day. Let’s just hope you didn’t really put your money where your mouth is.

Nope. Demand is very strong for Model 3. Model S may be cannabilized a bit by 3, but refresh updates should work just fine. You should stop reading FUD and reading the actual reports indicating delivery problems, not demand problems.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink View Post
The Good News is that Tesla is going to start producing cars in China. In fact, Tesla is absolutely the T-Rex of electric car manufacturers.
The Bad News is that they are going to be facing companies like BYD, who is the Godzilla of electric car manufacturers.

The problem I have with Tesla is that its stock price has gotten WAY out in front of its ultimate potential in the marketplace. I don't have a clue where its true stock price should be, but right now, I wouldn't pay more than a hundred bucks a share, and its true value is probably more like $50 per share. Remembering, of course, that price per share for every other company in the universe (except for Uber and Lyft, maybe), is calculated on profits per share, not on pie-in-the-sky, "just wait-'til-next year" profits. I'm thinking that the veil is being pulled back on the Wizard Behind the Curtain, and that Elon Musk is the Engineering equivalent of L. Ron Hubbard (Elon...., L. Ron.....things that make you go hmmm).

Edit: forgot to post the link:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...ing-like-tesla

Value for all growth companies is always higher than their current profit state - it is the expectation of how much profit they are going to make over the next decade or so. You can cover your eyes and just think that their current volume of production is going to be flat for the next decade - then you are absolutely right they are overvalued. But if you probabilisticaly estimate how much future earnings could come from new products coming online in the next 5 years, then the stock is undervalued. Of course any change in plans or perception then massively swings stock value.

I know hard concept. Might be better to stick with Coca-cola.
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Old 04-30-2019, 12:56 PM
 
876 posts, read 283,274 times
Reputation: 576
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...=mw_quote_news
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Old 04-30-2019, 01:50 PM
 
9,222 posts, read 4,096,639 times
Reputation: 6390
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeApelido View Post
Nope. Demand is very strong for Model 3. Model S may be cannabilized a bit by 3, but refresh updates should work just fine. You should stop reading FUD and reading the actual reports indicating delivery problems, not demand
You’re probably the only person in the world who thinks there’s a ship with 30k Tesla’s on it headed to China that didn’t get counted. Even Tesla’s biggest champions believe there’s a demand problem. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-downside.html
Companies don’t slash prices when there’s high demand.
Even Elon thinks there is a problem, but he thinks it’s due to everybody else being too poor.

Who’s telling you otherwise?
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Old 04-30-2019, 09:36 PM
 
2,171 posts, read 669,967 times
Reputation: 6533
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
You’re probably the only person in the world who thinks there’s a ship with 30k Tesla’s on it headed to China that didn’t get counted. Even Tesla’s biggest champions believe there’s a demand problem. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-downside.html
Companies don’t slash prices when there’s high demand.
Even Elon thinks there is a problem, but he thinks it’s due to everybody else being too poor.

Who’s telling you otherwise?
"Just you wait 'til next year, you'll see...."

Said as I drink the last of my can of Diet Coke.
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Old 05-01-2019, 07:39 AM
 
876 posts, read 283,274 times
Reputation: 576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
You’re probably the only person in the world who thinks there’s a ship with 30k Tesla’s on it headed to China that didn’t get counted. Even Tesla’s biggest champions believe there’s a demand problem. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnb...-downside.html
Companies don’t slash prices when there’s high demand.
Even Elon thinks there is a problem, but he thinks it’s due to everybody else being too poor.

Who’s telling you otherwise?
Um, Teslas financial reports?
Did you read what I said about Model 3? ASP now in U. S is back up to $50k.
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Old 05-01-2019, 09:24 AM
 
9,222 posts, read 4,096,639 times
Reputation: 6390
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeApelido View Post
Um, Teslas financial reports?
Did you read what I said about Model 3? ASP now in U. S is back up to $50k.
You’re probably right. I’m sure nobody at Morgan Stanley or anything probably didn’t think to read the financial reports before lowering their guidance. Elon’s trippin about nothing.

The price went back up because Tesla realized they can’t afford to lower the price. Remember, they planned to lay-off all their store employees to make up the difference but then realized they actually drove the sales in the first place. Now they’re stuck selling more expensive cars to a market looking for a cheaper car. They want to lower the price but can’t.
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Old 05-01-2019, 10:57 AM
 
876 posts, read 283,274 times
Reputation: 576
Uh oh, Model 3 U.S. deliveries in April were > 10,000, over double what they were for January. Yeah, demand in waning.
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