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Old 07-09-2019, 04:06 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 1,052,476 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
No, the quarter before another tax cut there is a mad dash to get a Tesla. For this quarter, the least profitable Tesla’s were in the highest demand.
except the least profitable Teslas were also available in Q4 2018 when the tax credit was double what it was Q2 2019.


So in summary:


When tax credit was $7,500 - Model 3 sales were high (mad dash)
When tax credit was $3,750 - Model 3 sales were even higher (an even madder dash)


This makes sense, since the Model 3 is the best car in its class, bar none. It just seems to take time for people to notice, and evidently, they're noticing it now.
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:33 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kishac View Post
except the least profitable Teslas were also available in Q4 2018 when the tax credit was double what it was Q2 2019.


So in summary:


When tax credit was $7,500 - Model 3 sales were high (mad dash)
When tax credit was $3,750 - Model 3 sales were even higher (an even madder dash)


This makes sense, since the Model 3 is the best car in its class, bar none. It just seems to take time for people to notice, and evidently, they're noticing it now.
It means people on the fence decided to pull the trigger now vs later and nothing more. Next quarter will be a disappointment because those sales will be reflected in Q2, then the quarter before the tax credit expires will be great pulling in sales from the next quarter. Then there will be no tax credit and the Model 3 will be yesterday’s news.
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:51 PM
 
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Except the main problem (except for Model S) wasn't demand in Q1, it was production.
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Old 07-10-2019, 02:57 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 1,052,476 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
It means people on the fence decided to pull the trigger now vs later and nothing more. Next quarter will be a disappointment because those sales will be reflected in Q2, then the quarter before the tax credit expires will be great pulling in sales from the next quarter. Then there will be no tax credit and the Model 3 will be yesterday’s news.
Ok, so doesn't that mean more people were on the fence Q2 2019 vs Q4 2018? The pattern seem to indicate that as the tax credit slowly phases out, more and more people are jumping on the fence.



Even with no tax credit, the market doesn't have a better car available in the $40k range. A lightly optioned new BMW 3 series (which is inferior to a Tesla Model 3) will still approach $50k. and it also needs premium gas and synthetic oil. Ouch.


And soon the Model Y will come out and start obliterating the crossover SUV market. This is only the beginning..
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Old 07-11-2019, 08:15 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kishac View Post
Ok, so doesn't that mean more people were on the fence Q2 2019 vs Q4 2018? The pattern seem to indicate that as the tax credit slowly phases out, more and more people are jumping on the fence.



Even with no tax credit, the market doesn't have a better car available in the $40k range. A lightly optioned new BMW 3 series (which is inferior to a Tesla Model 3) will still approach $50k. and it also needs premium gas and synthetic oil. Ouch.


And soon the Model Y will come out and start obliterating the crossover SUV market. This is only the beginning..
A Model 3 with that horrendously cheap interior has no room to claim it’s superior to anything.

A BMW 3 Series also comes with an actual dealer network and spare parts don’t take half a year to get.

The Model Y won’t solve anything because it’s only going to cannibalize Model 3’s. People who want an electric vehicle aren’t going to wait for a crossover when they can scratch their EV itch now and get a tax credit. It’s not like the Model Y really looks or does anything different than a Model 3. Not enough to hold out until the tax credit is completely gone anyway. Only stupid people would do that.

Tesla will get additional sales as they expand into foreign markets. The problem is as they expand, the buzz wears off after a few quarters and they’re forced to sell low margin volume just to break even on their factories’s overhead. You’ll see this roller coaster for awhile provided the economy can hold out.
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Old 07-12-2019, 03:44 PM
 
1,226 posts, read 1,052,476 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
A Model 3 with that horrendously cheap interior has no room to claim it’s superior to anything.

A BMW 3 Series also comes with an actual dealer network and spare parts don’t take half a year to get.

The Model Y won’t solve anything because it’s only going to cannibalize Model 3’s. People who want an electric vehicle aren’t going to wait for a crossover when they can scratch their EV itch now and get a tax credit. It’s not like the Model Y really looks or does anything different than a Model 3. Not enough to hold out until the tax credit is completely gone anyway. Only stupid people would do that.

Tesla will get additional sales as they expand into foreign markets. The problem is as they expand, the buzz wears off after a few quarters and they’re forced to sell low margin volume just to break even on their factories’s overhead. You’ll see this roller coaster for awhile provided the economy can hold out.
Horrendously cheap interior might be true if you compare it to a loaded 5 series with quilted Nappa leather. but for most BMW 3 series that are on the lot, the Tesla interior (IMO) feels just as good if not better. Tesla didn't skimp on the materials as some naysayers would want others to think. In fact, I looked at them side by side at the 2018 LA Auto Show and Tesla's interior was convincingly upscale enough for me to place my deposit the following day. The new 3 series and A4 felt cramped and underwhelming.


I understand you have a Jeep Grand Cherokee so its a bit surprising that you would find a Tesla interior "horrendously cheap" (no offense). I love the grand Cherokee but it's far from an exemplary interior in terms of fit and finish.


Model Y has many similarities to the Model 3 and that's the beauty of it. The assembly is streamlined and the QA/QC issues will be minimized because of it. But there are key differences: exterior and interior dimensions. And a longer cargo area that will allow for a 3rd row seat.


I don't want to focus on the tax credit because it makes the Tesla appear to be a value proposition and nothing more. The engineering of the car is incredible. It'll be interesting to see a performance spec Model Y absolutely destroy any Macan, Cayenne, or BMW X.
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Old 07-12-2019, 04:34 PM
 
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Remember folks, as Tesla's sales grow quarter after quarter, year after year, the gremlins will keep saying "no demand".

Meanwhile the real "no demand" is happening with their competitors, with tanking sales and profits. Model Y will exacerbate this. Stayed tuned for 2020.
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Old 07-13-2019, 11:26 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kishac View Post
Horrendously cheap interior might be true if you compare it to a loaded 5 series with quilted Nappa leather. but for most BMW 3 series that are on the lot, the Tesla interior (IMO) feels just as good if not better. Tesla didn't skimp on the materials as some naysayers would want others to think. In fact, I looked at them side by side at the 2018 LA Auto Show and Tesla's interior was convincingly upscale enough for me to place my deposit the following day. The new 3 series and A4 felt cramped and underwhelming.


I understand you have a Jeep Grand Cherokee so its a bit surprising that you would find a Tesla interior "horrendously cheap" (no offense). I love the grand Cherokee but it's far from an exemplary interior in terms of fit and finish.


Model Y has many similarities to the Model 3 and that's the beauty of it. The assembly is streamlined and the QA/QC issues will be minimized because of it. But there are key differences: exterior and interior dimensions. And a longer cargo area that will allow for a 3rd row seat.


I don't want to focus on the tax credit because it makes the Tesla appear to be a value proposition and nothing more. The engineering of the car is incredible. It'll be interesting to see a performance spec Model Y absolutely destroy any Macan, Cayenne, or BMW X.
I used to have a Grand Cherokee. It was an Overland Summit though and the interior was top notch. Tesla Model 3 has no interior at all. It’s just a plain dash with an iPad attached to it. It was a budget move disguised as “minimalism”. An example of a top notch interior is the Mercedes E Class. Even the C-Class is top notch for its price range.

The engineering isn’t really all that special. The Macan, Cayenne, and BMW X are far larger and more versatile vehicles.
The Model Y is the answer to a problem that didn’t exist. Hence the stock actually went down when it was released.
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Old 07-13-2019, 11:28 AM
 
9,613 posts, read 6,948,338 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeApelido View Post
Remember folks, as Tesla's sales grow quarter after quarter, year after year, the gremlins will keep saying "no demand".

Meanwhile the real "no demand" is happening with their competitors, with tanking sales and profits. Model Y will exacerbate this. Stayed tuned for 2020.
I was told “every quarter would be profitable from now on”. Then the next quarter they had to raise a Billion dollars to stay afloat. I notice you’re very selective about what quarters to be exited about.
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Old 07-14-2019, 05:29 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,432 posts, read 9,529,208 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
I used to have a Grand Cherokee. It was an Overland Summit though and the interior was top notch. Tesla Model 3 has no interior at all. It’s just a plain dash with an iPad attached to it. It was a budget move disguised as “minimalism”. An example of a top notch interior is the Mercedes E Class. Even the C-Class is top notch for its price range.

The engineering isn’t really all that special. The Macan, Cayenne, and BMW X are far larger and more versatile vehicles.
The Model Y is the answer to a problem that didn’t exist. Hence the stock actually went down when it was released.
I am willing to bet that the software development in particular, but also the hardware that's used in the Tesla interior costs more than the switch gear in a Mercedes or Porsche. First class custom software development costs a lot of money. And though I am sure Tesla didn't develop the electronics hardware from earth, fire and water, that's not just an iPad glued to the dash, and that wouldn't be cheap either. How much do you think it really costs to develop a dash with conventional rotary switches and rocker switches?
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