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Tesla's 2020 guidance was to exceed 500,000 vehicle deliveries. Things got off to a rough start with Covid19 and they delivered ~180,000 vehicles for Q1 and Q2 combined. Troy Teslike's twitter estimates Q3 to be around 140,000 deliveries, which should put us at around 320,000 deliveries for the first three quarters.
If that's the case, then I would expect that Tesla makes a strong push to deliver over 180,000 cars during Q4. I'm not sure if they even have the capacity to make that happen. But if they do, I see some price cuts coming to induce demand. The Model Y appears to be the prime candidate for a lower configuration (rear drive). The Model Y already took a $3k price cut recently which saw its base price drop to $50k. But I think there's a strong likelihood that Tesla announces a Model Y rear wheel drive long range model at around $46-$47k in the very near future, perhaps by the start of Q4. In fact, Tesla's recent Model Y price cut of $3k happened at the start of Q3. This could cascade to price cuts with higher level trims of the Model 3 to maintain the price difference with the Y.
I don't see how they would have the capacity to make 180K vehicles in one quarter unless the factory in China somehow completes its expansion way ahead of schedule.
Tesla's 2020 guidance was to exceed 500,000 vehicle deliveries. Things got off to a rough start with Covid19 and they delivered ~180,000 vehicles for Q1 and Q2 combined. Troy Teslike's twitter estimates Q3 to be around 140,000 deliveries, which should put us at around 320,000 deliveries for the first three quarters.
If that's the case, then I would expect that Tesla makes a strong push to deliver over 180,000 cars during Q4. I'm not sure if they even have the capacity to make that happen. But if they do, I see some price cuts coming to induce demand. The Model Y appears to be the prime candidate for a lower configuration (rear drive). The Model Y already took a $3k price cut recently which saw its base price drop to $50k. But I think there's a strong likelihood that Tesla announces a Model Y rear wheel drive long range model at around $46-$47k in the very near future, perhaps by the start of Q4. In fact, Tesla's recent Model Y price cut of $3k happened at the start of Q3. This could cascade to price cuts with higher level trims of the Model 3 to maintain the price difference with the Y.
Coincidentally I saw a rumor (just a rumor) that they are going to raise the Model Y price $3000 soon.
Coincidentally I saw a rumor (just a rumor) that they are going to raise the Model Y price $3000 soon.
It doesn't sound likely, based on Elon's tweet:
“We have reduced pricing on Model Y LR dual motor & will offer a LR single motor Y in a few months, which improves affordability, while still keeping the product excellent,” said Musk in a tweet on July 12.
A few months from that tweet would be around October, and he notes improved affordability via the single motor Y.
How about make them better quality before upping the numbers. Too many Model Ys are just slapped together quickly and then have all kinds of issues leaving the factory. Poor QC. Of course they rely on their mobile techs to go out and fix these problems afterwards.
How about make them better quality before upping the numbers. Too many Model Ys are just slapped together quickly and then have all kinds of issues leaving the factory. Poor QC. Of course they rely on their mobile techs to go out and fix these problems afterwards.
It makes me wonder what pace and processes Tesla has for iterating on what's essentially their public beta testing with their rollouts. Supposedly there's a lot of parts sharing with the Model 3 so it's probably not as messy as what that was, but it'd still be great to see actual data on issues for each iteration as well a s how many iterations to the vehicle and production line have been pushed through since the first Model Y was created.
They're sending Standard Range+ Model 3s with LFP batteries (a battery chemistry that is cheaper, but with lower energy density than what Tesla has been using for other vehicles) made in China to Europe now. I've read some guesses at the first lower price Model Y's being available will be LFP Model Y's made in China as they have the LFP battery sourcing already and the Tesla Shanghai factory is in the midst of building their Model Y production lines. It may take Tesla having a somewhat local source of LFP batteries in the US before they launch a cheaper Model Y in the US.
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