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Old 04-23-2021, 01:48 PM
 
9,576 posts, read 4,567,608 times
Reputation: 6706

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Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
You having almost no experience and an interesting track record of predictions and statements doesn't make him more believable, but it certainly doesn't make anyone inclined to believe you when you're saying someone else is being arrogant.

It would be great if you can explain what you mean by "current EVs use less than 10% of their capacity" though. I'm curious about what that means to you and how you think that works in the context of EV batteries.
I already answered that. The way one drives a passenger car is not the way one drives a heavy commercial truck and is not comparable. Surely even the most humble Tesla fan understands this.

For the record I have successfully forecasted Tesla’s dubious claim of “Robo taxis “not actually being viable by the end of 2020 like Elon claimed. Nor Tesla selling 500k cars a year by 2018. I’ve always been skeptical of Autopilot and quality issues which are now making a lot of news. Even China of all places is beginning to realize Tesla quality is subpar.
I’m completely aware that I’m against the grain on a Tesla thread and 100% expect some blowback which I receive even when I’m right. My goal is to dig a little deeper than an Elon tweet to find out what’s actually what.
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Old 04-25-2021, 04:08 AM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
3,007 posts, read 866,027 times
Reputation: 3683
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Here’s what Tesloop had to say about their lessons learned on battery life
That first Tesloop with the highest miles btw had two battery replacements. Anything last forever if you consider the drivetrain a consumable item.

You owning 3 Tesla’s isn’t a qualification as to how long an industrial sized battery will last.
Current batteries are 300k-500k life - data backs those numbers. The drive train is in no way a consumable on a Tesla with over 460K miles any more than an engine and tranny are for an ICE vehicle - your average gas vehicle with that many miles has had major engine/tranny work. One car is a data point, that spreadsheet shows many data points that backs the battery life claimed. (BTW - the batteries were replaced under warranty so no cost associated for driver.) Here are some more high mileage Teslas.

The next gen batteries that are being used in the Semi are in testing and have a life projected at 1M miles - info

Quote:
New, low-cost batteries designed to last for a million miles of use and enable electric Teslas to sell profitably for the same price or less than a gasoline vehicle .
Owning 3 Teslas was about having real experience, not evaluating battery life, never claimed that - you just make stuff up. But as an engineer, trained on batteries, I can evaluate the data on battery and projections of life for voracity of claims. On the other hand, you having no experience with the vehicles or these batteries and absolutely no qualifications for evaluating either one.
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Old 04-25-2021, 09:50 AM
 
Location: In the heights
29,727 posts, read 28,751,240 times
Reputation: 15952
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
I already answered that. The way one drives a passenger car is not the way one drives a heavy commercial truck and is not comparable. Surely even the most humble Tesla fan understands this.

For the record I have successfully forecasted Tesla’s dubious claim of “Robo taxis “not actually being viable by the end of 2020 like Elon claimed. Nor Tesla selling 500k cars a year by 2018. I’ve always been skeptical of Autopilot and quality issues which are now making a lot of news. Even China of all places is beginning to realize Tesla quality is subpar.
I’m completely aware that I’m against the grain on a Tesla thread and 100% expect some blowback which I receive even when I’m right. My goal is to dig a little deeper than an Elon tweet to find out what’s actually what.

Yea, you responded, but there's no reason to believe the rationale behind it and no on has claimed that the way. one drives a passenger car is exactly like the way one drives a heavy commercial truck

You make a lot of predictions--you just say a lot of things about Teslas and EVs in general despite having pretty much experience and what appears to be pretty limited knowledge on the subject. Tesla's going to miss its projections sometimes and sometimes it won't--that's fine. You throw enough things up and you'll get some of them right, but there seems to be limited ability for you to admit when you're wrong or when your arguments are faulty, but it's confusing sometimes because it's unclear if you're actually cognizant of being wrong or if you never intended a good faith argument in the first place.

There are others that are skeptical of some of the claims made by Tesla or Elon including owners like Barry and non-owners like myself. Criticism doesn't need to come in the form of a morass of hot garbage.


I do think there are going to be quite a few adjustments to the Tesla Semi after it launches, similar to how they've done so with all their production vehicles thus far even though the use case for the Semi is very different from that of their passenger vehicles. It seems pretty ingrained in the way they do things, so I don't doubt there will be more than a few kinks that exist and get worked out as they go along. The question is if dealing with those kinks are worth it with the potential benefit of lowering overall total cost of ownership. Some of the projections out there look pretty good, but you won't really know if that'll hold true for the Semi until they've been on the road in actual commercial usage for a while.

Last edited by OyCrumbler; 04-25-2021 at 10:00 AM..
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Old 04-27-2021, 06:00 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
4,978 posts, read 2,382,736 times
Reputation: 6047
The article doesn't say so specifically, but this was probably at a quarterly update for investors - Tesla saying that the semi is expected to begin deliveries later this year.
https://www.ttnews.com/articles/tesl...iver-semi-year

P.S. They'll obviously need to set up special charging stations for these things too - with a 500kWh battery in the semi, the normal car chargers for batteries in the 50-100kWh range won't be able to cut it. I imagine they're already working on it, but getting the charging network set up for the semi will also take time.

Last edited by OutdoorLover; 04-27-2021 at 06:39 AM..
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Old 05-01-2021, 08:15 AM
 
9,576 posts, read 4,567,608 times
Reputation: 6706
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Yea, you responded, but there's no reason to believe the rationale behind it and no on has claimed that the way. one drives a passenger car is exactly like the way one drives a heavy commercial truck

You make a lot of predictions--you just say a lot of things about Teslas and EVs in general despite having pretty much experience and what appears to be pretty limited knowledge on the subject. Tesla's going to miss its projections sometimes and sometimes it won't--that's fine. You throw enough things up and you'll get some of them right, but there seems to be limited ability for you to admit when you're wrong or when your arguments are faulty, but it's confusing sometimes because it's unclear if you're actually cognizant of being wrong or if you never intended a good faith argument in the first place.

There are others that are skeptical of some of the claims made by Tesla or Elon including owners like Barry and non-owners like myself. Criticism doesn't need to come in the form of a morass of hot garbage.


I do think there are going to be quite a few adjustments to the Tesla Semi after it launches, similar to how they've done so with all their production vehicles thus far even though the use case for the Semi is very different from that of their passenger vehicles. It seems pretty ingrained in the way they do things, so I don't doubt there will be more than a few kinks that exist and get worked out as they go along. The question is if dealing with those kinks are worth it with the potential benefit of lowering overall total cost of ownership. Some of the projections out there look pretty good, but you won't really know if that'll hold true for the Semi until they've been on the road in actual commercial usage for a while.
Pot calling kettle black on the “admit when you’re wrong” statement there cowboy. I’ve actually proven to be very knowledgeable on the subject. You’ve never proven me wrong and you usually go into a multi page semantics argument to prove nothing.
Likewise I’m blown away by all the electrical engineering and marketing training that Tesla owners apparently get before they can take delivery of the car to appropriately qualify them for any possible discussion on future Tesla products or sales predictions in foreign countries. Driving a Model 3 makes you no more qualified to speculate on a Tesla semi than owning a diesel Jetta does on commenting on a diesel semi. I’m allowed to be just as skeptical as you are optimistic.

Here are some battery well known and published factors affecting battery life:
1) age- average passenger vehicle life is about 12 years vs 16 for a semi. A semi will generally be expected to last longer thus see more battery age which degrades range.
2) high temperature- the average EV commuter doesn’t see the battery temps that an 80k lb semi is pulling up a mountain pass on a daily basis.
3) operating at high and low states of charge- The average EV owner may have a 300 mile battery charged to no more than 80% and discharges no more than about 60% most of it’s whole life vs a semi that will be expected to be charged to 100% and discharged to almost 0%. (I don’t need to own a Tesla to know this. )
4) high charging speeds- Tesloop (the same high mileage Tesla operators that you people use to validate anything battery age related) found that frequent direct charging was the cause of early battery failures in their highest mileage Tesla’s (yes the batteries did not last as long as the car did). A semi would be expected to “mega charge” as its primary method of charging vs a much slower home charging network that an EV commuter would use.

Here’s more for an in depth read https://getoptiwatt.com/news/the-com...-battery-life/

Or you can label it all a “morass of hot garbage” and continue to self congratulate yourself.
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:11 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
3,007 posts, read 866,027 times
Reputation: 3683
Ziggy, you have proven nothing - making statements without backed by data does not make you knowledgeable.

Show one post that agrees with your statements on the Semi batteries - a battery that no one has seen yet so life and impact of charging is unknown.

Your post also show you really do not understand how a Semi or Tesla normally operate. The average Semi does 45K miles a year according to usspecial.com - the Tesloop was doing several times that in a year without issue. The truck companies normally get rid of trucks at about 400-500K miles because of maintenance issues like turbo, transmission, clutch, etc that start to make them expensive to maintain.

When I worked on Semis (and other heavy equipment), we would normally just remove the engine and replace with a rebuild from Caterpillar or Cummings if was more than a minor issue - just like would likely do if a Tesla needed work.

It is rather funny that you say "Driving a Model 3 makes you no more qualified to speculate on a Tesla semi..." but somehow someone without even that qualification is more qualified to speculate? You also use a link about a Model 3 battery to say applies to a Tesla Semi battery, really? Pot meet kettle times 2.
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Old 05-02-2021, 02:12 PM
 
Location: In the heights
29,727 posts, read 28,751,240 times
Reputation: 15952
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Pot calling kettle black on the “admit when you’re wrong” statement there cowboy. I’ve actually proven to be very knowledgeable on the subject. You’ve never proven me wrong and you usually go into a multi page semantics argument to prove nothing.
Likewise I’m blown away by all the electrical engineering and marketing training that Tesla owners apparently get before they can take delivery of the car to appropriately qualify them for any possible discussion on future Tesla products or sales predictions in foreign countries. Driving a Model 3 makes you no more qualified to speculate on a Tesla semi than owning a diesel Jetta does on commenting on a diesel semi. I’m allowed to be just as skeptical as you are optimistic.

Here are some battery well known and published factors affecting battery life:
1) age- average passenger vehicle life is about 12 years vs 16 for a semi. A semi will generally be expected to last longer thus see more battery age which degrades range.
2) high temperature- the average EV commuter doesn’t see the battery temps that an 80k lb semi is pulling up a mountain pass on a daily basis.
3) operating at high and low states of charge- The average EV owner may have a 300 mile battery charged to no more than 80% and discharges no more than about 60% most of it’s whole life vs a semi that will be expected to be charged to 100% and discharged to almost 0%. (I don’t need to own a Tesla to know this. )
4) high charging speeds- Tesloop (the same high mileage Tesla operators that you people use to validate anything battery age related) found that frequent direct charging was the cause of early battery failures in their highest mileage Tesla’s (yes the batteries did not last as long as the car did). A semi would be expected to “mega charge” as its primary method of charging vs a much slower home charging network that an EV commuter would use.

Here’s more for an in depth read https://getoptiwatt.com/news/the-com...-battery-life/

Or you can label it all a “morass of hot garbage” and continue to self congratulate yourself.

Just this forum in a quick one minute search--I believe your worst arguments were more about EVs in general on the general automotive forum, but you have some good ones here.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Late to the game. Nikola already has a hybrid electric truck with all the benefits of electric motors without the negative benefits. Cummins already has one as well.
Hopefully this giant distraction money sucking distraction just hastens the end of Tesla.

Nikola really did an amazing job, didn't they? Tesla's end is just about there, yea?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
And now the bad news...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...waiting-buyers

The stock actually falls after Tesla finally met what they've overpromised. If you've followed Tesla's stock over the past 8 years, the only thing that's reliable about it is that is skyrockets on the slightest hint of good news. This is the first time I've seen it actually sink after good news. Despite what Elon says, Tesla does very much care about stock price, as it's their cash cow for secondary offerings. Elon even recently bought millions of shares to try and get the price higher. Another trick he uses is to promise something else in the future to keep speculation high, Tweet taunts to short sellers, and when all else fails, ask for interest free cash deposits. Pretty much all the stops were pulled this last couple weeks and still nothing.

It's clear that Tesla was just shooting for metrics and not actually sustainably building cars. Employees have been working 24 hours for the past week and Elon had to erect a tent to make another production line using leftover assembly line tooling. Needless to say, I'd hate to own any of the cars that were built this week.
Other companies simply don't have this problem. Over time Tesla will eventually sustainably be able to produce Model 3s, but not before consuming a lot more cash.

On a worse note, once the pent up demand for Model 3's is met by Tesla fans who couldn't afford a Model S, it's unlikely that they'll have much appeal within the broader market. Many of those 400K reservations are people who opted for the promised "$35K" version that will most likely not get their tax credit that had anticipated. Lack of dealerships, service centers, that polarizing interior, as well as the depreciation and other negative aspects of EVs in general, will mean the factory that's invested a lot into making half a million cars per year could find themselves without buyers and a lot of overhead cost and debt. The reviews for Model 3s outside of the EV and Tesla enthusiast markets are less than enthusiastic. Then there is the impeding loss of the federal tax credit that will coincide with other manufacturers ramping up competitive EV models that will be eligible for the tax credit, given Tesla a $7500 price disadvantage against the competition.


Looks like Model 3's are still being bought this year with more than 400K total sold in just the US, and Tesla's still selling vehicles in the US and those sales have kept increasing. Model 3 seems to be doing fine and is the best selling vehicle in its segment of entry level luxury sedans in the US.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
Name one post that I've ever been wrong or even confused.

ACTUAL production is useless. Elon pulled employees from all over his companies and made a tent to make his production happen (does buying the cars made in a tent get you discount?) Elon was obviously trying to make his numbers appear larger than they were. Profitable companies don't do this. Yes Elon has to make more cars and sell them at premium prices, yet everybody else can also make an EV to compete, and yes, the tax credit is going away for Tesla but everybody can still use it...I'm I wrong or "confused" here? . As expected Tesla has to make more money....no news there. The Model 3 is a low budget looking version of a Model S and the interior is wretched. Even you're not buying it. Your entire post pretty much just agreed with me...but whatever. I get that you want to "pick sides" and you think I'm an oil executive or something.


The question isn't if Tesla can sell 20K cars a year... a retarded monkey can do that. The question is if they can sell between 500,000 and 1 million cars a year, that's what their business case for the Model 3 is.

Can they sell 500,000 to 1 million cars a year? Yea, it's looking like this a year.


You don't seem to register when you're wrong very well, so you never end up correcting yourself or wondering why you're wrong--which then leads to you being wrong more often. It doesn't matter though, because EVs and Teslas seem to be gaining pretty decent traction no matter what you believe. Generally it's a morass of hot garbage because you just throw a mix of anything. Something might stick, but I'm not going to bite out of a good burger sitting in a pile of rotting eggs and spent diapers. It's generally not worth the trouble of sifting through unless the purpose is to revel in garbage and the wonderment that something like this can exist.
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Old 05-09-2021, 10:50 PM
 
9,576 posts, read 4,567,608 times
Reputation: 6706
Quote:
Originally Posted by OyCrumbler View Post
Just this forum in a quick one minute search--I believe your worst arguments were more about EVs in general on the general automotive forum, but you have some good ones here.






Nikola really did an amazing job, didn't they? Tesla's end is just about there, yea?






Looks like Model 3's are still being bought this year with more than 400K total sold in just the US, and Tesla's still selling vehicles in the US and those sales have kept increasing. Model 3 seems to be doing fine and is the best selling vehicle in its segment of entry level luxury sedans in the US.





Can they sell 500,000 to 1 million cars a year? Yea, it's looking like this a year.


You don't seem to register when you're wrong very well, so you never end up correcting yourself or wondering why you're wrong--which then leads to you being wrong more often. It doesn't matter though, because EVs and Teslas seem to be gaining pretty decent traction no matter what you believe. Generally it's a morass of hot garbage because you just throw a mix of anything. Something might stick, but I'm not going to bite out of a good burger sitting in a pile of rotting eggs and spent diapers. It's generally not worth the trouble of sifting through unless the purpose is to revel in garbage and the wonderment that something like this can exist.
In other words instead of addressing what I’ve posted that’s relevant to this topic, you chose to dig through years of old post desperately seeking some sort of self assurance elsewhere.

This again is proof your long winded posts ultimately bring nothing to the table. Your real reason for “not going through the trouble” is because you have nothing to say.
If those old threads were suppose to prove my early speculation entirely of base they were a poor example.

Last edited by Ziggy100; 05-09-2021 at 11:30 PM..
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Old 05-10-2021, 04:18 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas & San Diego
3,007 posts, read 866,027 times
Reputation: 3683
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ziggy100 View Post
In other words instead of addressing what I’ve posted that’s relevant to this topic, you chose to dig through years of old post desperately seeking some sort of self assurance elsewhere.

This again is proof your long winded posts ultimately bring nothing to the table. Your real reason for “not going through the trouble” is because you have nothing to say.
If those old threads were suppose to prove my early speculation entirely of base they were a poor example.
So funny - this, like many of your posts, does nothing to address the topic and you completely missed the point.
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Old 05-10-2021, 04:33 PM
 
9,576 posts, read 4,567,608 times
Reputation: 6706
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddeemo View Post
So funny - this, like many of your posts, does nothing to address the topic and you completely missed the point.
Go read post #25 and answer those questions then you can talk about “missing points” and “not addressing topics”. I dunno, try to not get distracted by attacking me for a moment and maybe your presence may offer some merit.
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