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Old 04-28-2012, 01:17 PM
 
566 posts, read 754,374 times
Reputation: 864

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It is obvious to almost everyone, except Ron Paul supporters, that he is running a message campaign and does not have a realistic shot at winning the Republican nomination.

His supporters are extremely loyal and most will vote for him as a third candidate regardless of his odds.

He might even find a way to get in a Presidential debate or two vs. Obama and Romney. This will only fire up his supporters.

Most of Paul supporters, (if forced to pick one of the two major parties) would side more closely with the republicans than the democrats but their loyalties will take away from the Republican party.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama supporters and donating money to Paul's campaign to keep him viable as long as possible.

Looking at the last two presidential elections we already see that the Democrats are closing the gap in Texas but they still do have a ways to go.

2004:
Republican 61.4%
Democrat 38.4%

2008:
Republican 55.4%
Democrat 43.5%


We also know that most of the large Texas cities, with their population base, voted Democrat in the 2008 election. We also know that Texas, since 2008, has been a hot spot for Americans relocating from other states. I wonder what political attitudes they bring with them.

Not saying it will happen this election, but strong Paul support makes it more possible than without. Imagine a future where Texas is a legitimate Swing State...it would be a pretty important state to win.
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Old 04-29-2012, 07:24 PM
 
347 posts, read 405,762 times
Reputation: 401
Not that it will matter, but:

Ron Paul running as 3rd candidate - bad for Mitt Romney.
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Old 04-29-2012, 07:28 PM
 
Location: Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas
936 posts, read 1,368,323 times
Reputation: 1178
Democrats will have to start making gains in the suburbs to have a chance. I know many of the Dallas County suburbs are blue or purple, but I don't see my county of Collin going blue ever.
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Old 04-29-2012, 08:39 PM
 
Location: San Antonio Texas
11,431 posts, read 17,331,366 times
Reputation: 5224
Quote:
Originally Posted by H'ton View Post
It is obvious to almost everyone, except Ron Paul supporters, that he is running a message campaign and does not have a realistic shot at winning the Republican nomination.

His supporters are extremely loyal and most will vote for him as a third candidate regardless of his odds.

He might even find a way to get in a Presidential debate or two vs. Obama and Romney. This will only fire up his supporters.

Most of Paul supporters, (if forced to pick one of the two major parties) would side more closely with the republicans than the democrats but their loyalties will take away from the Republican party.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama supporters and donating money to Paul's campaign to keep him viable as long as possible.

Looking at the last two presidential elections we already see that the Democrats are closing the gap in Texas but they still do have a ways to go.

2004:
Republican 61.4%
Democrat 38.4%

2008:
Republican 55.4%
Democrat 43.5%


We also know that most of the large Texas cities, with their population base, voted Democrat in the 2008 election. We also know that Texas, since 2008, has been a hot spot for Americans relocating from other states. I wonder what political attitudes they bring with them.

Not saying it will happen this election, but strong Paul support makes it more possible than without. Imagine a future where Texas is a legitimate Swing State...it would be a pretty important state to win.
Unfortunately, Repubs are generally more cohesive than Dems. They will sheeple their vote and vote for the mormon romney. Paul will not make a significant dent in the vote.
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Old 04-29-2012, 10:21 PM
 
1,576 posts, read 2,704,793 times
Reputation: 1116
Quote:
Originally Posted by TxStorm72 View Post
Not that it will matter, but:

Ron Paul running as 3rd candidate - bad for Mitt Romney.
It really doesn't matter. Romney does not have at shot at Obama. This could be as crushing a defeat as Reagan over Mondale.
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Old 04-29-2012, 10:37 PM
 
Location: Volcano
12,971 posts, read 25,267,529 times
Reputation: 10656
The country as a whole is trending toward the Democrats, and the Republican party has just done a very good job of pissing off Hispanics, whom TIME pronounced the deciders in the next election, and women, who trend liberal anyway, and who comprise 53% of the voters.

Oh, Ron Paul? Will suck off conservative votes, turning the tide for the Democrats.
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Old 04-30-2012, 08:14 AM
 
Location: Greenville, Delaware
4,726 posts, read 10,857,584 times
Reputation: 2612
On what basis is there the apparent assumption here that Paul will run a third party/independent candidacy? If he were to do so, he would generate a great deal of Republican hatred that would risk political retaliation against his son, Rand Paul. I've heard it asserted that for that reason alone Ron Paul would be unlikely to mount an independent candidacy.

It would be lovely if he decides to do so, as it will eat in to Romney's support. However, I doubt that sufficient numbers of Texans would vote for Paul to swing the majority popular vote - and hence the State's electoral votes - to Obama.
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Old 04-30-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Central Texas
13,719 posts, read 27,242,589 times
Reputation: 9241
Quote:
Originally Posted by wehotex View Post
Unfortunately, Repubs are generally more cohesive than Dems. They will sheeple their vote and vote for the mormon romney. Paul will not make a significant dent in the vote.
Is it significant to you that Romney is a Mormon? I find it odd you chose to list it that way>
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Old 04-30-2012, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Texas Hill Country
680 posts, read 1,634,970 times
Reputation: 511
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoffdano View Post
Is it significant to you that Romney is a Mormon? I find it odd you chose to list it that way>
Guessing this was a typo -- just added an extra "m" in the middle (notice it was not capitalized)/
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Old 04-30-2012, 09:35 AM
 
Location: The Lone Star State
8,030 posts, read 8,102,866 times
Reputation: 5045
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Dollar View Post
It really doesn't matter. Romney does not have at shot at Obama. This could be as crushing a defeat as Reagan over Mondale.
I think you are very wrong here. Perhaps wishful thinking on your part?
Much of Obama's performance has been lackluster at best, he's not in a great place for an incumbent.
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