Will Ron Paul help turn Texas PURPLE ......or....BLUE? (Dallas: closing, vs.)

[H'ton]

It is obvious to almost everyone, except Ron Paul supporters, that he is running a message campaign and does not have a realistic shot at winning the Republican nomination.

His supporters are extremely loyal and most will vote for him as a third candidate regardless of his odds.

He might even find a way to get in a Presidential debate or two vs. Obama and Romney. This will only fire up his supporters.

Most of Paul supporters, (if forced to pick one of the two major parties) would side more closely with the republicans than the democrats but their loyalties will take away from the Republican party.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama supporters and donating money to Paul's campaign to keep him viable as long as possible.

Looking at the last two presidential elections we already see that the Democrats are closing the gap in Texas but they still do have a ways to go.

2004:
Republican 61.4%
Democrat 38.4%

2008:
Republican 55.4%
Democrat 43.5%


We also know that most of the large Texas cities, with their population base, voted Democrat in the 2008 election. We also know that Texas, since 2008, has been a hot spot for Americans relocating from other states. I wonder what political attitudes they bring with them.

Not saying it will happen this election, but strong Paul support makes it more possible than without. Imagine a future where Texas is a legitimate Swing State...it would be a pretty important state to win.

[TxStorm72]

Not that it will matter, but:

Ron Paul running as 3rd candidate - bad for Mitt Romney.

[ReppingDFW]

Democrats will have to start making gains in the suburbs to have a chance. I know many of the Dallas County suburbs are blue or purple, but I don't see my county of Collin going blue ever.

[wehotex]

Originally Posted by H'ton

It is obvious to almost everyone, except Ron Paul supporters, that he is running a message campaign and does not have a realistic shot at winning the Republican nomination.

His supporters are extremely loyal and most will vote for him as a third candidate regardless of his odds.

He might even find a way to get in a Presidential debate or two vs. Obama and Romney. This will only fire up his supporters.

Most of Paul supporters, (if forced to pick one of the two major parties) would side more closely with the republicans than the democrats but their loyalties will take away from the Republican party.

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama supporters and donating money to Paul's campaign to keep him viable as long as possible.

Looking at the last two presidential elections we already see that the Democrats are closing the gap in Texas but they still do have a ways to go.

2004:
Republican 61.4%
Democrat 38.4%

2008:
Republican 55.4%
Democrat 43.5%


We also know that most of the large Texas cities, with their population base, voted Democrat in the 2008 election. We also know that Texas, since 2008, has been a hot spot for Americans relocating from other states. I wonder what political attitudes they bring with them.

Not saying it will happen this election, but strong Paul support makes it more possible than without. Imagine a future where Texas is a legitimate Swing State...it would be a pretty important state to win.

Unfortunately, Repubs are generally more cohesive than Dems. They will sheeple their vote and vote for the mormon romney. Paul will not make a significant dent in the vote.

[David Dollar]

Originally Posted by TxStorm72

Not that it will matter, but:

Ron Paul running as 3rd candidate - bad for Mitt Romney.

It really doesn't matter. Romney does not have at shot at Obama. This could be as crushing a defeat as Reagan over Mondale.

[OpenD]

The country as a whole is trending toward the Democrats, and the Republican party has just done a very good job of pissing off Hispanics, whom TIME pronounced the deciders in the next election, and women, who trend liberal anyway, and who comprise 53% of the voters.

Oh, Ron Paul? Will suck off conservative votes, turning the tide for the Democrats.

[doctorjef]

On what basis is there the apparent assumption here that Paul will run a third party/independent candidacy? If he were to do so, he would generate a great deal of Republican hatred that would risk political retaliation against his son, Rand Paul. I've heard it asserted that for that reason alone Ron Paul would be unlikely to mount an independent candidacy.

It would be lovely if he decides to do so, as it will eat in to Romney's support. However, I doubt that sufficient numbers of Texans would vote for Paul to swing the majority popular vote - and hence the State's electoral votes - to Obama.

[hoffdano]

Originally Posted by wehotex

Unfortunately, Repubs are generally more cohesive than Dems. They will sheeple their vote and vote for the mormon romney. Paul will not make a significant dent in the vote.

Is it significant to you that Romney is a Mormon? I find it odd you chose to list it that way>

[cinnamon_toast]

Originally Posted by hoffdano

Is it significant to you that Romney is a Mormon? I find it odd you chose to list it that way>

Guessing this was a typo -- just added an extra "m" in the middle (notice it was not capitalized)/

[sxrckr]

Originally Posted by David Dollar

It really doesn't matter. Romney does not have at shot at Obama. This could be as crushing a defeat as Reagan over Mondale.

I think you are very wrong here. Perhaps wishful thinking on your part?
Much of Obama's performance has been lackluster at best, he's not in a great place for an incumbent.