Why Texas is the (U.S.) Future (Houston, Dallas: 2013, student loans)

[BeenThereDunThat]

I deal in finance and study demographics, trends, etc. and I've long ago come to the conclusion that Texas has been shaping up to what a majority of the U.S. may well look like in the next 25 to 30 years. (Hey don't kill the messenger folks, I deal in numbers, stats, Monte Carlo models, median, mean & average analysis trends... numbers simply don't lie, so there! )

Anyways... looking at how metro areas have been shaping up over the past 30 years or so (yeah, I'm that old!) ... I feel that as Texas goes, so will most of the U.S. in the next 30 years. Call me crazy but I seem to have more information to back this up. New issue of TIME Magazine seems to share this feeling... for a thumbnail sketch of what I'm talking about, it may be worth a read. I'm sure more news outlets will be covering this in the foreseeable future.

10 Reasons Texas Is America's Future | TIME.com

Is it going to be a perfect Utopia? No I don't think there will ever be such a place however when you compare the current trends of the major Texas metros, I'd have to say that they're probably in a lot better shape than some of the other major metros in the U.S. which have seen better days. And as a whole, you have to look at the state of Texas in the same vein as economic clout. Everyone knows California's significance in the world economy... Texas is definitely entering this league. It's going to be quite a shift and if you're not paying attention, you may be missing out on some tremendous benefits / opportunities in the coming decade.

My2Cents FWIW

[stanwood]

The article should be titled, "10 Reasons Texas Should Be America's Future." This country is more at odds between blue and red and ever before. The blue states are going to continue to bet bluer and the red redder.

[aznkobee]

I don't know whether Texas is the future or not but what I know from personal experience is.... Texas is the place where the American Dream still lives. People who are starting from zero or in my case huge negative in student loans, Texas is the ONLY place to be. Young people right now are strangled by absurd student loans, high unemployment, expensive housing, gas, things. We not only have to battle through all of that, but also bear the burden of baby boomer's future medicaid and social security surge. Aside from escaping U.S., the only way out is move to Texas where there's no state income tax for the working, low cost of housing and living and plenty of jobs. Here you can actually move out of parent's basement, live life with some diginity, start a family, massively save, pay off your loans and start funding for retirement before the impending increase in tax to fund entitlement and pay back american debt.

[BeenThereDunThat]

I really don't want to make this thread about Red vs Blue states but thanks to political pundits and the media trying to simplify political complexities with cut & dried analysis and visual aids... this is largely a myth. As to the question of Red and Blue States... honestly this is really an oversimplification of what is really happening. The whole "Red vs Blue" question is really a device that has been manipulated to serve the bias of each political party. And thanks to media graphics used during election coverage... the news folks have really perverted the subject to general terms. For example.... they'll use a US map showing a state as being either entirely red or blue but in fact the state is color of purple or violet.which would indicate that the leaning is not as huge a majority as the media would like us to believe.

Don't think so? Take a look at his article and get past generalities.
We Are All Purple: The Destructive Lie of Red States and Blue States — UPDATED 2012 MAPS

Based on what I know about political bents and demographics... a state is a combination of both Red & Blue.... and if you were to look on a county-by-county basis, you'd find splits are there too. Sure there are majorities in cases but by and large... America is made up of Purple, Violet, Crimson and Magenta.

Now back to Texas...it has a lot going for it politically and while it may be considered primarily as being conservative / red, the simple fact is that more folks who may lean towards liberal / blue slants are finding the Lone Star State an attractive place to live and work...so that will have some influence. AND let's face it... a lot of folks are really leaning towards being moderate in their thinking. I see this trend continuing based on what is happening now.

But I digress... in the past year I've had parents of college-bound kids ask me My2Cents about either staying in a state like Louisiana or having them move to Texas for higher education. Louisiana's hell-bent conservative "cut-everything state budget" has damaged higher education by slashing budgets, raising tuition and eliminating programs. I've had 3 families send their kids to Texas to get state residency for in-state tuition and take advantage of the state college system beginning with the community college programs which are excellent! Anyone can criticize Texas but I have to say that higher ed and the community college system is top notch. Neighboring states could learn a thing or three by paying attention to the Lone Star State's higher ed offerings. It's a real plus!

[Made_it_To_the_Metroplex]

IMHO, purple would be Libertarian - fiscally conservative in a way that makes most Republicans look like FDR, yet socially liberal. I find that most "conservatives" these days (including myself) fit that mold better than the traditional Republican label. If that's the case here in Texas, then I believe you're right BeenThereDunThat.

[JimBaker488]

Originally Posted by Made_it_To_the_Metroplex

IMHO, purple would be Libertarian - fiscally conservative in a way that makes most Republicans look like FDR, yet socially liberal. I find that most "conservatives" these days (including myself) fit that mold better than the traditional Republican label. If that's the case here in Texas, then I believe you're right BeenThereDunThat.

I consider myself a "quasi" libertarian, but I don't think libertarians are socially liberal because that implies advocating government activism at the federal level. For example, I'm definitely not a fan of gay marriage, but legalizing it locally/state level I can accept, but don't want the Feds in DC imposing their agenda on me when it comes to such issues.

[matteo81]

The article itself wasn't the best case for Texas. One example was that the author kept referring to the California's regulations in building codes and occupational licensing - which we have in Texas. He also failed to mention Prop 13's effects on the cost of California's housing market.

Also, if people want a more libertarian society, why are they moving to Dallas, Houston, Austin & San Antonio when they come to Texas? Those are the areas of Texas with the most government.

I tend to think Texas is a success far more due to its geography & geology than its public policy.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by matteo81

The article itself wasn't the best case for Texas. One example was that the author kept referring to the California's regulations in building codes and occupational licensing - which we have in Texas. He also failed to mention Prop 13's effects on the cost of California's housing market.

Also, if people want a more libertarian society, why are they moving to Dallas, Houston, Austin & San Antonio when they come to Texas? Those are the areas of Texas with the most government.

I tend to think Texas is a success far more due to its geography & geology than its public policy.

I love my home state, we have lots of beautiful spots in Texas, that said I'm fairly certain no one would argue that Texas is more beautiful than California. Also California has worlds of oil and gas that they simply will not extract because of politics. For a while I had a tiny division, six people, of my company in NorCal. Any notion that Texas' public policy towards business, especially small business, isn't light years ahead/better than Cali's is absurd.

[EDS_]

Everyone needs to read and understand the points in that piece about employment and aggregate COL in Texas.

Those were that per - X amount of income one is much better off in Texas than any other large population state. And that our average or median earnings net of taxes and COL metrics put us behind only Washington State and Virginia. And Virginia is only better than TX due to significant federal gov. employment in NOVA.

And to once and for all end the canard that all the new jobs in Texas are low paying. Note item 7 that states, over the last ~10 years 1/3 of all high paying new jobs in the nation have been created in Texas. Folks that's not luck that's the .gov staying out of the way to a large degree.

[BeenThereDunThat]

Just to toss this in for consideration: Austin, TX is not all that cheap to do business in yet corporations are attracted to the area because it has a considerable well-educated, technically-qualified workforce. Sure that's not the only reason but having sat through many an EcDev conference / meetings, companies looking to expand are really keying in on the existing workforce of an area to support their company. In Louisiana, the state gov't. provides work-force development incentives and other tax-rewards to entice a company to locate here. This is viewed with mixed opinions as not being ideal as many criticize this as not the best use for state money. So Texas seems to have value with corporations looking to expand as Texas has a desirable geographic location, a talented / skilled / educated workforce, and a state that seems to attract people to want to live there (here).

What's not to like?

As for the "Purple - Libertarian leaning mix", I don't think so. I think most people in Texas would consider themselves to be "conservative" but with a "small c". I think people are shifting more towards "conservative-moderate" or even going so far as to dropping party affiliation altogether. You would have to take a look at the demographics and pay close attention to the age groups as younger people (even Texas natives) are starting to drift away from the political affiliations of their parents and lean more towards a progressive attitude. This isn't to say they'll be extreme in their views but instead shifting away towards party-line simplicity. Just my take based on what I get from demographers and political pollsters. Forget mainstream politics as that is becoming oh so yesterday's news given the recent division in D.C.

The way I see it: Shift Happens! and it's happening as I write.