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Old 03-06-2018, 10:55 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
19,397 posts, read 29,012,200 times
Reputation: 10673

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There will be a day where FW slows down. Right now, from an urban and large population factor, Dallas is more prepared than Fort Worth. Better public transport and larger urban bones, as well as infrastructure, than Fort Worth. If the nation continues to become more popular with dense urban development, Dallas is better equipped to handle it. Most of these are well to optimistic, though. Especially Laredo. 600,000? I think it's best to just take anything after 2030 with a grain of salt.
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Old 03-06-2018, 01:43 PM
 
2,070 posts, read 1,537,054 times
Reputation: 2396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Senior View Post
Dallas, is all but land locked, has been for years, so no surprise that Fort Worth will be larger than Dallas. Fort Worth can annex, like they have been, on up to Oklahoma, if they wish, lol Soooo, boom boom, sure. And to the Dallas comment, that is likely an over estimate, unless they high rise everywhere, and become as dense as other older, mega cities, likely, maybe?

These "guesses" of population are good for planning on water needs, sure, but estimating populations some 52 years out, heck, who knows what the Chinese will have America looking like by then, lol, or even if any of "this" will exist.
Dallas will most likely grow via density and urbanity. I don't think it will end up like the Northeast, but more like LA-style density/urbanity. A lot of people forget that there's a lot of land south of Downtown and plenty of opportunities to grow. Oak Cliff proper is technically the size of Boston. You can easily urbanize it. And frankly who care if Fort Worth ends up technically "larger." Jacksonville, FL's population is heavily skewed due to massive city limits, but does that make it a "better" city? I would hope Fort Worth would focus more on smarter growth than annexation.

I do agree with your last paragraph though.
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Old 03-06-2018, 05:45 PM
 
1,315 posts, read 712,113 times
Reputation: 1480
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Senior View Post
yes, and no, Irving has no land to annex to grow substantially. Celina, booming because of mega Fort Worth close by. You know its not hard to boom from 100 - to 10,000 lol.
That's true but extending growth trends from these small places for that long will result in rediculously exponential values. Look at Pearland for example that has gone from a sleepy town to a major burb. Look at Missouri City. These areas doubled their population but for the next 50 years will barely grow?

Places like Laredo will fuel growth indefinitely but not one Houston suburb passes 200k?

No one finds it strange tHe fast growing burbs of the last 20 years just gained in the next 50 what it gained in the last 5?


Celina is growing at a high percentage now because the base population is small.
By the time it gets to 50k the rate will be much slower even though it may be gaining the same or more in raw numbers.

Pearland went from 37k in 2000 to 120k now but projected to only hit 174k in 2070.
League City went from 45k in 2000 to over 100k now and only projected to hit 150k while Leander his 345k
Laporte is projected to gain only 1000 people in the next 50 years.
Conroe grew from 35 in 2000 to 80k now and it's not projected to hit 90k till 2030?


It's really weird to me that not one of the Houston burbs pass 200k. Not even the ones over 100k such as Pasadena, league City, Pearland, Sugar Land.

Sugarland went from 25k in the 90s to 100k now but the projection has it at 122k by 2040.
Don't know why cities like Sugar land with massive job growth would show down so rapidly and others like leander and Celina would explode without as much job growth or physical numbers

Last edited by atadytic19; 03-06-2018 at 06:40 PM..
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Unplugged from the matrix
2,514 posts, read 1,301,713 times
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League City, Conroe, and Pearland especially as they have a lot of land left in their city limits. Sugar Land and Missouri City can annex their way to 120-150k now if they wanted to.
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Old 03-07-2018, 10:23 AM
 
2,930 posts, read 4,130,176 times
Reputation: 1804
Quote:
Originally Posted by DTXman34 View Post
Dallas will most likely grow via density and urbanity. I don't think it will end up like the Northeast, but more like LA-style density/urbanity. A lot of people forget that there's a lot of land south of Downtown and plenty of opportunities to grow. Oak Cliff proper is technically the size of Boston. You can easily urbanize it. And frankly who care if Fort Worth ends up technically "larger." Jacksonville, FL's population is heavily skewed due to massive city limits, but does that make it a "better" city? I would hope Fort Worth would focus more on smarter growth than annexation.

I do agree with your last paragraph though.

Yes, I too, agree with your "better" city response. Good post, yes Dallas, would seem to be better prepared for density/urbanity.
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Old 03-07-2018, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
1,422 posts, read 2,849,243 times
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I don't see Ft. Worth passing both SA and Austin in population.
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:47 PM
 
1,315 posts, read 712,113 times
Reputation: 1480
Quote:
Originally Posted by DabOnEm View Post
League City, Conroe, and Pearland especially as they have a lot of land left in their city limits. Sugar Land and Missouri City can annex their way to 120-150k now if they wanted to.
New Texas laws make annexation harder than it used to be.

Fort Worth and Austin annexation growth is going to slow down.

I don't see Fort Worth passing Dallas for 3rd largest in Texas but I think Austin might even without annexation.

Sugar Land completed two major annexations before the law went into effect.
Pearland wasn't as successful with it's annexations. San Antonio had major annexations in the eyes but I don't know how that worked out
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
2,158 posts, read 1,558,189 times
Reputation: 2922
I calculated the MSA and CSA numbers based on the Board's projections. This, of course, assumes the metro areas stay fixed from their current delineation: pop_county - Report Viewer

Dallas MSA
2020: 7,495,656
2030: 8,672,197
2040: 9,960,610
2050: 11,329,258
2060: 12,753,894
2070: 14,250,678

Dallas CSA (excluding Bryan County, OK)
2020: 7,916,856
2030: 9,130,166
2040: 10,463,372
2050: 11,897,715
2060: 13,477,750
2070: 15,197,588

Houston MSA
2020: 7,135,275
2030: 8,002,749
2040: 8,808,639
2050: 9,641,142
2060: 10,530,061
2070: 11,498,771

Houston CSA
2020: 7,342,746
2030: 8,222,195
2040: 9,035,847
2050: 9,874,703
2060: 10,769,982
2070: 11,744,110

For some reason they project that Houston will start to fall behind.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
2,158 posts, read 1,558,189 times
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Austin MSA (there is no CSA)
2020: 2,287,050
2030: 2,800,024
2040: 3,351,342
2050: 3,863,795
2060: 4,435,384
2070: 5,073,152

San Antonio MSA (there is no CSA)
2020: 2,524,228
2030: 2,913,546
2040: 3,267,498
2050: 3,608,137
2060: 3,928,794
2070: 4,226,319
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Commonwealth of Virginia
2,158 posts, read 1,558,189 times
Reputation: 2922
Webb to Cameron County Corridor
2020: 1,891,778
2030: 2,300,375
2040: 2,706,906
2050: 3,114,360
2060: 3,519,703
2070: 3,913,929
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