Texas Population Projections by City; 51 million by 2070 (Houston, Dallas: live, station)

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

I calculated the MSA and CSA numbers based on the Board's projections. This, of course, assumes the metro areas stay fixed from their current delineation: pop_county - Report Viewer

Dallas MSA
2020: 7,495,656
2030: 8,672,197
2040: 9,960,610
2050: 11,329,258
2060: 12,753,894
2070: 14,250,678

Dallas CSA (excluding Bryan County, OK)
2020: 7,916,856
2030: 9,130,166
2040: 10,463,372
2050: 11,897,715
2060: 13,477,750
2070: 15,197,588

Houston MSA
2020: 7,135,275
2030: 8,002,749
2040: 8,808,639
2050: 9,641,142
2060: 10,530,061
2070: 11,498,771

Houston CSA
2020: 7,342,746
2030: 8,222,195
2040: 9,035,847
2050: 9,874,703
2060: 10,769,982
2070: 11,744,110

For some reason they project that Houston will start to fall behind.

So what's going to happen in the DFW region to make its population explode so much faster in the next decades than it is now ? Can anybody show any other credible data that would corroborate these ridicules projections ?

[manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

So what's going to happen in the DFW region to make its population explode so much faster in the next decades than it is now ? Can anybody show any other credible data that would corroborate these ridicules projections ?

I don't know, but ridiculous or not these are the projections being used by the state government to determine water infrastructure investments with your taxpayer dollars. So I would hope and imagine there's some logic behind them.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

I don't know, but ridiculous or not these are the projections being used by the state government to determine water infrastructure investments with your taxpayer dollars. So I would hope and imagine there's some logic behind them.

It doesn't talk about their methodology does it ? Looks to me like they're trying to justify some massive water project for North Texas without similar projects elsewhere.

[NigerianNightmare]

From what I’m seeing-
Dallas is surrounded by much larger cities than Houston. The closest large cities to Houston within reach of MSA is El Campo, Bay City, Brenham and maybe Huntsville compared to Dallas with.

Dallas not only have the Sherman-Denison area sorta within reach it has Waxahachie, Ennis, Weatherford, Granbury and much larger towns in general around it.

About Houston not a single suburb will ever reach 200,000 people and their is a good reason why. Houston doesn’t allow much of it suburbs to incorporate or annex large amounts unincorporated land in Harris County and Fort Bend County. Only suburb that has the possibility of reaching 200,000 at this point is Conroe if the city annexes north.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare

From what I’m seeing-
Dallas is surrounded by much larger cities than Houston. The closest large cities to Houston within reach of MSA is El Campo, Bay City, Brenham and maybe Huntsville compared to Dallas with.

Dallas not only have the Sherman-Denison area sorta within reach it has Waxahachie, Ennis, Weatherford, Granbury and much larger towns in general around it.

About Houston not a single suburb will ever reach 200,000 people and their is a good reason why. Houston doesn’t allow much of it suburbs to incorporate or annex large amounts unincorporated land in Harris County and Fort Bend County. Only suburb that has the possibility of reaching 200,000 at this point is Conroe if the city annexes north.

Just looking at the MSA numbers it shows a difference of only about 300k in their 2020 numbers, but these projections seem to indicate that they expect some catalyst for population growth in DFW to accelerate after 2020 that is not happening now. As we all know DFW has been on fire as far as major corporate relocations in the past few decades so I find it hard to believe that DFW can perform any better going forward than it has in the past 30 years or so.

The other large cities that you refer too would account for the CSA of DFW being about 1 million more than their MSA pop in 2070 and Houston only getting an additional 300k or so from its CSA which seems muted to me, but the MSA's have stayed roughly equivalent with Houston actually gaining population on DFW in the census between 2000 and 2010 and Census data show population estimates between 2010 and the present that Houston is still gaining on DFW at a slow rate.

So maybe they know something we don't or maybe this is a political projection intended to show why a very thirsty North Texas needs more State and Federal funding than a wetter Southeast Texas which is in a much better position when it comes to water resources.

[rynetwo]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

Austin MSA (there is no CSA)
2020: 2,287,050
2030: 2,800,024
2040: 3,351,342
2050: 3,863,795
2060: 4,435,384
2070: 5,073,152

San Antonio MSA (there is no CSA)
2020: 2,524,228
2030: 2,913,546
2040: 3,267,498
2050: 3,608,137
2060: 3,928,794
2070: 4,226,319

I averaged the growth using census Bureau numbers since 2010 and the number shake out like this...(they severely understated Bexar County and grossly over estimated Bastrop and Hays county)

San Antonio Metro 2070
4,955,159

Austin Metro 2070
4,875,198

Dallas
12,991,991

Houston
14,072,976

[die Eichkatze]

They appear to have nailed the 2020 population estimate...from 1968 (50 years ago).
On page 25: Estimated 2020 population: 30,500,000 https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publicati...=1520826575466

Granted this is for the state as a whole and not city specific, but still impressive.

[manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by die Eichkatze

They appear to have nailed the 2020 population estimate...from 1968 (50 years ago).
On page 25: Estimated 2020 population: 30,500,000 https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publicati...=1520826575466

Granted this is for the state as a whole and not city specific, but still impressive.

Considering Texas had about 10,000,000 in the mid-60s, predicting a tripling of the population was a gutsy prediction back then.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by die Eichkatze

They appear to have nailed the 2020 population estimate...from 1968 (50 years ago).
On page 25: Estimated 2020 population: 30,500,000 https://www.twdb.texas.gov/publicati...=1520826575466

Granted this is for the state as a whole and not city specific, but still impressive.

It was a different world in 1968 totally different mentality. The three members of this board now are recent appointees and some were probably not even born in 1968.

[KoNgFooCj]

Originally Posted by Mark Senior

Dallas, is all but land locked, has been for years, so no surprise that Fort Worth will be larger than Dallas. Fort Worth can annex, like they have been, on up to Oklahoma, if they wish, lol Soooo, boom boom, sure. And to the Dallas comment, that is likely an over estimate, unless they high rise everywhere, and become as dense as other older, mega cities, likely, maybe?

Maybe Dallas is so prosperous in the future that Grand Prairie and Mesquite decide to merge with it. Who knows?