Texas Population Projections by City; 51 million by 2070

[Mark Senior]

Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj

Maybe Dallas is so prosperous in the future that Grand Prairie and Mesquite decide to merge with it. Who knows?

Surprised to see someone comment on my post from well over 1 and 1/2 years ago. Just to add, it's much more costly, for a city like Dallas to dense up, or densify, than it is for Fort Worth to just annex. I don't really know if, in the last 1 1/2 years, Fort Worth has annexed anymore, stopped or what? Does anyone know?

I haven't talked with my cousin in Fort Worth about that, he at one time closely kept up with everything Fort Worth, as I do everything Tyler.

[NigerianNightmare]

Also for people wondering why certain cities grow only 1,000 people. Their is the very real chance that the average age of Americans is so high that some inner suburbs that are very anti-large densification projects hit those 200,000 numbers in Houston or 300,000 for Plano and then start's to decline and by 2070 it doesn't look like they've grown much but they've actually grown and declined as they got walled of and the people within these cities went against multi-family of any kind.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

I calculated the MSA and CSA numbers based on the Board's projections. This, of course, assumes the metro areas stay fixed from their current delineation: pop_county - Report Viewer

Dallas MSA
2020: 7,495,656
2030: 8,672,197
2040: 9,960,610
2050: 11,329,258
2060: 12,753,894
2070: 14,250,678

Dallas CSA (excluding Bryan County, OK)
2020: 7,916,856
2030: 9,130,166
2040: 10,463,372
2050: 11,897,715
2060: 13,477,750
2070: 15,197,588

Houston MSA
2020: 7,135,275
2030: 8,002,749
2040: 8,808,639
2050: 9,641,142
2060: 10,530,061
2070: 11,498,771

Houston CSA
2020: 7,342,746
2030: 8,222,195
2040: 9,035,847
2050: 9,874,703
2060: 10,769,982
2070: 11,744,110

For some reason they project that Houston will start to fall behind.

The difference, is Houston’s CSA is expected to absorb more counties. By then College Station would possibly be in the MSA and Beaumont would possibly be in the CSA

[ParaguaneroSwag]

https://www.bizjournals.com/bizjourn...sdatabase.html

Here’s a different projector that projects HOU to pass up DFW by 2035. Is it correct? Is the one listen here correct? Most likely neither is. Only time will tell. We can’t predict trends. Just a few years ago, we wouldn’t have thought Houston to take its tech industry seriously, and Sylvester Turner turned that around. But what if Buzzbee wins the runoff election and halts future projects. Or what if he wins and improves them. What if DFW attracts a major media conglomerate? What if HOU does? This is why projections are innacurate when you start projecting too many decades in advanced.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by Trainwreck20

Heh, according to the actuarial people, I have about a 11% chance of being around to worry about the population in 2070.

I'll be 90 then if I'm blessed to be alive and probably won't give a damn about the population of Texas lol!

[lipbalm]

Originally Posted by brock2010

I'll be 90 then if I'm blessed to be alive and probably won't give a damn about the population of Texas lol!

I will be dead, so who cares!!!

[Mr. Clutch]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

The difference, is Houston’s CSA is expected to absorb more counties. By then College Station would possibly be in the MSA and Beaumont would possibly be in the CSA

That's interesting. Honestly, I think it's inevitable that San Jacinto and Grimes County will eventually get added to the MSA, and probably Walker County as well.

With that said, I'm not sure B/CS will ever get added to the MSA, but it definitely makes sense as part of the CSA, even today. I'd argue Beaumont does too - it seems ridiculous until you realize that Caddo, OK is part of the DFW CSA and is 108 miles to downtown Dallas. The distance from Orange (on the Louisiana border) to downtown Houston? 113 miles.

If Walker, San Jacinto and Grimes were part of the Houston MSA and B/CS and Beaumont were part of the CSA now (well as of 2018), the population numbers would be:

Houston MSA: 7,327,442
Houston CSA: 7,999,399

DFW MSA: 7,539,711
DFW CSA: 7,957,493

DFW probably also has some additional counties that could be added to its MSA/CSA, but in many ways the methodology of determining MSAs and CSAs is so arbitrary there is no perfect comparison. Interesting nonetheless.