Is Texas becoming a swing state? (Houston, San Antonio: homes, school, move to)

[lonestar2007]

Originally Posted by RJ312

How much energy can a nearly 80 year old man have? Beto is at least in his late 40s and would have a very good chance of living through an 8 year presidential term.

lol No one could accuse O'Rouke of not having enough energy regardless of however it's generated. With all of his fast talking, body gyrating and overly intensified energy, I'd lay odds he's a spitter.

[supfromthesite]

Originally Posted by jpdivola

Looking over the exit polls from the 2018 Senate race two things stuck out votes by race and age.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/ex...s/texas/senate
Beto won younger voters and non-white voters handily. Cruz won older voters and white voters by the exact opposite margin.

Now, the age is open to interpretation. It looks like good news for the Dems given generational churn. But, young voters might become more conservative as they age so its hard to say for sure.

But, the race one is hard to interpret as anything but good news for Dems. Given that non-whites are growing as a share of the population, the GOP has to increase it performance with one or both groups to keep getting their total margins.

Which isn't going to happen unless they completely change their message. Diversity really is our stength

[supfromthesite]

Originally Posted by RJ312

Beto O'Rourke was hardly tuned out in Texas. He only lost by 2.7%. Some of his positive results were as a result of Ted Cruz being unlikable. As a side note, I think this is Cruz's last term as O'Rourke exposed him.

Beto O'Rourke is hardly a centrist. He's pretty far left. However, both parties have ideologically moved further apart in the last 2 decades or so.

I do not know how he will do nationally. He's not tremendously qualified. He only has 6 years of experience as a U.S. House Representative. Joe Biden has 36 years as a U.S. Senator and 8 years as a Vice President. Joe Biden is more qualified to be President than Beto. Bernie Sanders had 16 years of U.S. House experience and 12 years of U.S. Senate experience. He's also more qualified. However, both Biden and Sanders are old. They are both older than Trump. They might die during a potential 8 year presidential term. How much energy can a nearly 80 year old man have? Beto is at least in his late 40s and would have a very good chance of living through an 8 year presidential term.


I see Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party consensus candidate. She's in her 50s, has good experience, and is both not white and not male, which is more of the profile of the Democratic Party supporter at this time.

I do think Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, and Harris are the top tier of candidates, and the rest are just mainly noise with little potential of getting the nomination.

If you ask the younger generation of "progressives" he actually isn't far left enough. He doesn't want to completely disband ICE. He doesn't want complete open borders. This actually makes him not "progressive" enough. Even Bernie is too centrist because he doesn't support reparations.

[RJ312]

Originally Posted by supfromthesite

If you ask the younger generation of "progressives" he actually isn't far left enough. He doesn't want to completely disband ICE. He doesn't want complete open borders. This actually makes him not "progressive" enough. Even Bernie is too centrist because he doesn't support reparations.

Everything you have said is technically correct, which is sad. There is no nation with open borders. Open borders are an invitation to be conquered.

[turkeydance]

of course....Texas Swing.
Bob Wills is the Governor.

[thenewtexan]

We can analyze it to death. All I know is it is gradually leaning less red as time goes on due to changing demographics. If and when it actually goes blue in a presidential election, Republicans will be screaming.

[tcualum]

Beto is more qualified than Trump was. I'm not saying this as someone who wants Beto as the Democratic candidate.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by RedneckRebel

That is an interesting observation. I feel the same thing has happened in Florida. Florida used to be a solid blue state, and has since turned red(ish).
A lot of New Yorkers (and other yankee states) have moved to Florida. The interesting thing that I have noticed is, that alot (not all, but probably most) of them leaving the Blue North, are, what I call "political refugees". They are leaving because of the high-tax policies of Democrats, and are fleeing to Florida for the low tax, lower regulations of our state. And, as such, it is turning the state redder.

Democrats in Florida, about 25 years ago, used to outnumber us by about 1,000,000 registered voters. Today, they only outnumber us Republicans by about 235,000. Curious to know what the trend in Texas is. I cant seem to find registered voter info on the Supervisor of Elections website for Texas. Any thoughts on that?

That will change as Florida as a Blue state really never was. I have family there. If it were Democrat it was blue dog variety. With the newly won referendum to given state felons the right to vote, most believe that will have Florida lean Democrat for sure.

Texas is blue to purple in its six big metro regions with Tarrant County/Fort Worth, historically, the most red but Ted Cruz LOST Tarrant Country to Beto which was SMELLING salts for the GOP. Also, the local GOP elected a religious minority to seat of authority that had some wanting to oust him (he's middle eastern). Some people forget Texas is a Majority-minority state. For the GOP there is no bigger challenge, especially, with an influx of more liberally minded west coast folks and a birth rate amongst latinos that surpasses the Anglos. That said, I don't think Texas will ever be like the west coast states or Colorado. I see it being more like Minnesota in 25 years or Virginia.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by RJ312

Beto O'Rourke was hardly tuned out in Texas. He only lost by 2.7%. Some of his positive results were as a result of Ted Cruz being unlikable. As a side note, I think this is Cruz's last term as O'Rourke exposed him.

Beto O'Rourke is hardly a centrist. He's pretty far left. However, both parties have ideologically moved further apart in the last 2 decades or so.

I do not know how he will do nationally. He's not tremendously qualified. He only has 6 years of experience as a U.S. House Representative. Joe Biden has 36 years as a U.S. Senator and 8 years as a Vice President. Joe Biden is more qualified to be President than Beto. Bernie Sanders had 16 years of U.S. House experience and 12 years of U.S. Senate experience. He's also more qualified. However, both Biden and Sanders are old. They are both older than Trump. They might die during a potential 8 year presidential term. How much energy can a nearly 80 year old man have? Beto is at least in his late 40s and would have a very good chance of living through an 8 year presidential term.


I see Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party consensus candidate. She's in her 50s, has good experience, and is both not white and not male, which is more of the profile of the Democratic Party supporter at this time.

I do think Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke, and Harris are the top tier of candidates, and the rest are just mainly noise with little potential of getting the nomination.

Harris has no chance of winning. Biden, Beto, Booker for various reasons are better against Trump.

[walker1962]

Originally Posted by earthisle

The majority of native born Texans voted for Beto. Transplants voted for Ted. So if people keep coming here, Texas will get redder.

Really, all those California residents moving here are now staunch GOP? Not even. Some likely will lean toward better tax spending but socially they aren't changing.