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I agree all four metros will grow significantly, I'm just predicting that DFW will boom even more making the gap between it and the other three metros even larger.
I mean, long term (let's say next 20-40 years), I think the fastest growing area in % terms will actually be San Antonio just because it has the room to grow moreso than any of the rest of the metros and it still hasn't hit its recent economic boom yet. That happening is not a matter of if, it's a matter of when imo.
In terms of raw numbers, it will either be Houston or DFW, but that's really hard to say. Since 2000, Houston has actually added more people than DFW in total. During this past decade, DFW has grown faster by only 35,000 people. When comparing the timeframes 2000-2010 and 2010-now, DFW has added about the same number of people (~1.2 million) in both decades, despite the view of this decade being economically transformative for the region. The reality is that long term, both have risks.
In DFW's case, the economy is diverse, but still very domestically based and a lot of recent job growth has been based on relocation of corporate offices and HQs. This works for now for two reasons - one, the state has a robust subsidy program for companies that would consider relocating to Texas and two, DFW gives a good value given its cost vs. its amenities. It's a winning combination.
But long term, DFW is going to become more expensive and less competitive with some of its peer metro areas. What is now a great deal may not be as great of a deal as other inexpensive inland metros like Nashville, Charlotte, Columbus, San Antonio, etc. grow and develop amenities of their own and DFW continues getting more expensive. The risk is that those companies eventually go elsewhere as DFW does not have what I consider to be a single "anchor industry" to fall back on (I'd say aviation via airlines and professional services is the closest), and growth slows over time as the area increases in costs.
In Houston's case, the economy is less diverse, but its also less dependent on the health of the U.S. economy while being more dependent on external factors like international trade and the energy market. The flip side of being less diverse is that Houston has more primary industries that tend to result in job growth over time - oil hasn't been as robust lately in terms of adding jobs, but the other two primary industries (medical and import/export) have been doing well. Houston's inherent higher birthrates and higher international migration rates explain why despite generating somewhat less job growth than DFW recently, population growth this decade has been about the same.
Houston's biggest risk is that the oil industry starts shedding jobs long-term or that the local energy industry loses preeminence as energy mixes shift and oil and gas becomes a smaller share of the total energy pie. Healthcare is a growing industry and I don't see the medical field slowing down soon, and the import/export business should grow as the Port continues to grow and other shipping facilities come online in the region.
Unless something major changes, I expect DFW to remain bigger because Houston hasn't really closed the gap with it despite growing at about the same pace. Houston getting bigger will require an economic explosion in the Houston region (think 100K-150K + jobs per year for a decade straight), or a severe recession that hits America harder than the rest of the world. Neither are that likely in my view.
Excellent write-up Clutch. I'm not very familiar with the local economy in Houston, so I appreciate your insight and thoughts on both DFW and the Houston MSA. Based on what people have said, it sounds like I underestimated Houston and this next decade we'll see Houston and DFW both continue to thrive as they have been. What I would really like to see is see the HSR come to fruition so the two behomoths can feed off of each others' growth and take things to the next level.
I am also curious what happens when a region like DFW starts to become more expensive as that will mean it is less attractive to businesses and people. I suppose it'll mean that it will have to become attractive for other reasons other than cost to continue to attract people.
Yeah but the Amenities you get in Chicago blow Austin out of the water.
Yeah the house is smaller, but you can ride the train to work or to a world-class museum a real international airport, or a major league sports event.
I would take less land for the same price in Chicago every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Chicago is a world-class city and Austin is the 3rd City in Texas behind Chicago in terms of what it offers.
Also 23 miles of lakefront, almost all of which is public park land.
Quote:
Originally Posted by earthisle
Poor government and conservative ideology is affecting Texas negatively. The chickens have been coming home for a while now.
We have the highest uninsured rate, and related problems like rural hospitals shutting down. We also have pollution going unchecked because the state regulators are in league with the fossil fuel and chemical industries. We've got massive flooding problems caused by lack of planning and allowing suburban sprawl without enough requirements to reduce runoff
Speaking of Chicago... Crime and violence continues unabated in many neighborhoods, even while a sliver of the city gentrifies and previously unsafe neighborhoods turn into unaffordable neighborhoods. Many hospitals have also shut down in Chicago as well, but this is due to changes in the way medical care is delivered.
I think it is being underestimated.
San Antonio has a very resilient economy.
It is not poaching big name companies like DFW and it doesn't have a signature field such as Energy in Houston or Tech like Austin; but it is great in key areas that are more resilient to economic cycles.
San Antonio does very well in these sector (among others):
Military
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Tourism
San Antonio housing costs are also lower than DFW and much lower than Austin. I think it makes an attractive choice for someone who wants to move to Texas but hasn't decided where.
I don't think SA and Austin will be considered one area, but I think SA northern burbs will continue to rapidly grow. The Growth in New Braunfels has been phenomenal.
San Antonio is a very chill place. It has less of a rat race feel than the other big cities. It's roadways are less cramped, and it's not a shabby place to raise a family.
I think SA is going to pick up steam this decade. I don't think it will be as much steam as Austin had last decade, but I think it's going to surprise us.
As for Houston, OP mentioned he doesn't know much about the economy. There so much more to it than energy. Energy brings in the coin, but other industries keep it running.
1. Houston is the number one US metropolitan area for manufacturing. And this is a very diverse area in itself. They manufacture plastics, fertilizers, metals, oil related products...
2. Logistics- I don't know if you know. But DFW economy is highly linked to Houston (LA too). A huge portion of DFW $$$ comes from distribution of goods that cans in from Houston. Houston is consistently investing in that port and I think they had their best year last year. The Port generates over $800 Billion to the US economy and sustains over 3M jobs in the US (many in Dallas). The port is just a Beast.
3. Biomedical/ Healthcare- Houston was already HUGE and is set to be bigger in the coming years. When the Texas Medical Center was founded, the charter stated the member institutions were not able to generate profit. Cities like Boston, SF, Philadelphia have been raining in Venture Capital dollars but Houston has not because all that research being done in TMC was not for profit. With the new phase of the medical center under construction, the TMC is going to double its area with new developments geared specifically to for profit research.
In addition to that an independent project called Levit Green is being built adjacent to TMC that will also aim to reap the benefits of Biomedical and Biotechnology $$$. It's incubators like this that had driven Boston's economy in recent decades.
4. Energy is self explanatory in the Texas forum, but don't think it's just oil and gas. Don't think these people are clinging on to outdated technology like the coal people in West Virginia. These companies are investing in alternatives so they can adapt with the times.
5. Technology is not one of Houston's strengths right now but the city is trying to change that with multiple investments in incubators for start ups. The most talked about is the new Ion District stated by Rice University. At full build out it will be like a mini TMC3 for tech.
Something also to consider is that Houston Houston costs did not increase like the other major cities. It's still pretty cheap. It's something to consider, not only for people relocating, but also for corporate relocations. DFW has been killing everywhere else on corporate relocations but Houston has been right there in the top 3-5 too.
I think Texas is the future of the United States. As far as the economy goes, Texas is the way America is suppose to be. It already serves as a role-model state to other states. Many states want their state to be run like Texas..
FYI, factories in Texas are full of Mexicans
And that’s one of the things that makes Texas great
I mean, long term (let's say next 20-40 years), I think the fastest growing area in % terms will actually be San Antonio just because it has the room to grow moreso than any of the rest of the metros and it still hasn't hit its recent economic boom yet. That happening is not a matter of if, it's a matter of when imo.
In terms of raw numbers, it will either be Houston or DFW, but that's really hard to say. Since 2000, Houston has actually added more people than DFW in total. During this past decade, DFW has grown faster by only 35,000 people. When comparing the timeframes 2000-2010 and 2010-now, DFW has added about the same number of people (~1.2 million) in both decades, despite the view of this decade being economically transformative for the region. The reality is that long term, both have risks.
In DFW's case, the economy is diverse, but still very domestically based and a lot of recent job growth has been based on relocation of corporate offices and HQs. This works for now for two reasons - one, the state has a robust subsidy program for companies that would consider relocating to Texas and two, DFW gives a good value given its cost vs. its amenities. It's a winning combination.
But long term, DFW is going to become more expensive and less competitive with some of its peer metro areas. What is now a great deal may not be as great of a deal as other inexpensive inland metros like Nashville, Charlotte, Columbus, San Antonio, etc. grow and develop amenities of their own and DFW continues getting more expensive. The risk is that those companies eventually go elsewhere as DFW does not have what I consider to be a single "anchor industry" to fall back on (I'd say aviation via airlines and professional services is the closest), and growth slows over time as the area increases in costs.
In Houston's case, the economy is less diverse, but its also less dependent on the health of the U.S. economy while being more dependent on external factors like international trade and the energy market. The flip side of being less diverse is that Houston has more primary industries that tend to result in job growth over time - oil hasn't been as robust lately in terms of adding jobs, but the other two primary industries (medical and import/export) have been doing well. Houston's inherent higher birthrates and higher international migration rates explain why despite generating somewhat less job growth than DFW recently, population growth this decade has been about the same.
Houston's biggest risk is that the oil industry starts shedding jobs long-term or that the local energy industry loses preeminence as energy mixes shift and oil and gas becomes a smaller share of the total energy pie. Healthcare is a growing industry and I don't see the medical field slowing down soon, and the import/export business should grow as the Port continues to grow and other shipping facilities come online in the region.
Unless something major changes, I expect DFW to remain bigger because Houston hasn't really closed the gap with it despite growing at about the same pace. Houston getting bigger will require an economic explosion in the Houston region (think 100K-150K + jobs per year for a decade straight), or a severe recession that hits America harder than the rest of the world. Neither are that likely in my view.
It’s a inland metro away from the sea. It’s not going to lose jobs & the infastructure is arguably the best in the country. It will just reinvent itself, no different than Chicago has over & over. Also, the U.S. birthrates are slowing down to historic lows. The country population might actually start to stagnate. What pushes people away from areas is crime & lack of jobs. That’s not going to happen in DFW. It will never be as expensive NYC or LA or DC. Companies just don’t up & leave the DFW area. As long as the state remains business friendly it won’t be a mass exodus from the state. I actually see places like Abilene & San Angelo becoming more popular. As climate change becomes more pronounce where going to see a lot of land that becomes unavailable for development IMO as the country takes drastic measures to prevent the extinction of the human race.
You're definitely right, I didn't mean to say that the rest of the state will stand still. Texas (as a whole) will continue to boom as it has been, but I perceive that Austin will likely fall behind
.
Auston has the fastest growth rate 1of nearly 30% which will continue as will DFW and Houston and SA all of which had a 19% growth rate that will continue. So Austin will close the gap between them and the other three on a rate basis. So,DFW gap in size over SA and Houston will increase.
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