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Old 03-30-2020, 12:51 PM
 
561 posts, read 278,754 times
Reputation: 478

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Quote:
Originally Posted by War Beagle View Post
The people who can work and are at little-to-no serious risk from COVID-19 need to be working to keep the economy and civilization going. The people who are at risk (elderly and those with existing conditions) need to isolate. The healthy need to work to allow the elderly and sick to stay home. The way we are going about this now is the nuclear option or a recipe for societal suicide.



COVID-19 is like a house getting termites. Instead of calling the exterminator, the world has decided to burn the house down. The long-term effects of these draconian actions will be worse than the effects of the actual virus. Billions will be poorer for 5 to 10 years. Suicides will increase. Health care systems will weaken, leading to more non-COVID-19 deaths. Government services will suffer due to decreased tax revenues.


People believe "whatever we have to do to save lives is worth it" are FEELING and not THINKING. It's just not that simple. Society always makes informal decisions about how many fatalities are acceptable for all kinds of things (car accidents, murders, flu, etc.). COVID-19 can't be any different in the long-term.
I definitely agree with your post, and I do think the leaders of the world feel the same way. I'm guessing they felt that a shutdown of the economy would be less catastrophic than keeping things running.

There will be a time where that will no longer be true and the leaders of the world will decide to open up the economy even if it means risking lives.
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Old 03-31-2020, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Denver via Austin
3,756 posts, read 7,051,231 times
Reputation: 4861
Quote:
Originally Posted by War Beagle View Post
The people who can work and are at little-to-no serious risk from COVID-19 need to be working to keep the economy and civilization going. The people who are at risk (elderly and those with existing conditions) need to isolate. The healthy need to work to allow the elderly and sick to stay home. The way we are going about this now is the nuclear option or a recipe for societal suicide.



COVID-19 is like a house getting termites. Instead of calling the exterminator, the world has decided to burn the house down. The long-term effects of these draconian actions will be worse than the effects of the actual virus. Billions will be poorer for 5 to 10 years. Suicides will increase. Health care systems will weaken, leading to more non-COVID-19 deaths. Government services will suffer due to decreased tax revenues.


People believe "whatever we have to do to save lives is worth it" are FEELING and not THINKING. It's just not that simple. Society always makes informal decisions about how many fatalities are acceptable for all kinds of things (car accidents, murders, flu, etc.). COVID-19 can't be any different in the long-term.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPatel304 View Post
I definitely agree with your post, and I do think the leaders of the world feel the same way. I'm guessing they felt that a shutdown of the economy would be less catastrophic than keeping things running.

There will be a time where that will no longer be true and the leaders of the world will decide to open up the economy even if it means risking lives.
So brave, y’all. I assume you’ll volunteer to help the doctors with triage yeah?
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Old 03-31-2020, 08:17 AM
 
Location: Houston
2,956 posts, read 2,436,588 times
Reputation: 2423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
So brave, y’all. I assume you’ll volunteer to help the doctors with triage yeah?
Oh please, cut the snark ("brave"?). These posters are acknowledging the grim reality. Once the medical treatment system is stabilized, we will have to decide what level of illness and fatalities we are willing to accept to restart the economy. Yes, probably before a vaccine and effective treatment are available.

Even with a vaccine and treatment, it's entirely possible that COVID-19 may be a considerably more deadly recurring phenomenon than flu, for which we already accept a considerable level of illness and suffering to keep the economy open. I would have to think that the U.S. will decide to accept the higher level of risk to maintain economic function.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:22 AM
 
Location: Denver via Austin
3,756 posts, read 7,051,231 times
Reputation: 4861
Quote:
Originally Posted by LocalPlanner View Post
Oh please, cut the snark ("brave"?). These posters are acknowledging the grim reality. Once the medical treatment system is stabilized, we will have to decide what level of illness and fatalities we are willing to accept to restart the economy. Yes, probably before a vaccine and effective treatment are available.

Even with a vaccine and treatment, it's entirely possible that COVID-19 may be a considerably more deadly recurring phenomenon than flu, for which we already accept a considerable level of illness and suffering to keep the economy open. I would have to think that the U.S. will decide to accept the higher level of risk to maintain economic function.
Snark is the only thing that can cut through the BS of rhetoric that clearly hasn’t been thoroughly thought through or simply spoken in bad faith. This thing is so explosively contagious that there really is no middle ground between significant shutdowns and triage. That’s not speculation or exaggeration. It’s observable fact. They’re clearly cool with triage, so I figured people like them can do it. I hear it’s good money, but it is a lot of hours. I figure emotional fatigue wouldn’t be an issue.

The supply chain disruptions from the rest of the world having their priorities set straight means that, at best, America will have a gimp economy while millions of our own citizens die from completely preventable circumstances. We can either rethink our definition of “essential” business and support those who were put out of work while this thing blows over (which could take anywhere from 3-18 months), or we can ask literally millions of Americans for their lives over this next year because we don’t want to change pace.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:32 AM
 
561 posts, read 278,754 times
Reputation: 478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
Snark is the only thing that can cut through the BS of rhetoric that clearly hasn’t been thoroughly thought through or simply spoken in bad faith. This thing is so explosively contagious that there really is no middle ground between significant shutdowns and triage. That’s not speculation or exaggeration. It’s observable fact. They’re clearly cool with triage, so I figured people like them can do it. I hear it’s good money, but it is a lot of hours. I figure emotional fatigue wouldn’t be an issue.

The supply chain disruptions from the rest of the world having their priorities set straight means that, at best, America will have a gimp economy while millions of our own citizens die from completely preventable circumstances. We can either rethink our definition of “essential” business and support those who were put out of work while this thing blows over (which could take anywhere from 3-18 months), or we can ask literally millions of Americans for their lives over this next year because we don’t want to change pace.
I said that as long as the healthcare system isn't overloaded, then I would be okay opening up the economy again. This is what the world leaders seem to also agree with as well.

I'm simply disagreeing with people who say they wouldn't risk anyone's life for the sake of the economy, because that is just hypocritical for people to say.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Denver via Austin
3,756 posts, read 7,051,231 times
Reputation: 4861
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPatel304 View Post
I said that as long as the healthcare system isn't overloaded, then I would be okay opening up the economy again. This is what the world leaders seem to also agree with as well.

I'm simply disagreeing with people who say they wouldn't risk anyone's life for the sake of the economy, because that is just hypocritical for people to say.
Again, you don’t seem to understand that this virus makes it impossible to have an economy functioning how it has been without a healthcare system collapse.
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Old 03-31-2020, 09:58 AM
 
561 posts, read 278,754 times
Reputation: 478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
Again, you don’t seem to understand that this virus makes it impossible to have an economy functioning how it has been without a healthcare system collapse.
At this point in time, that seems to be true, which is why we shut down the economy (which I support).
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Denver via Austin
3,756 posts, read 7,051,231 times
Reputation: 4861
Quote:
Originally Posted by DPatel304 View Post
At this point in time, that seems to be true, which is why we shut down the economy (which I support).
Right, the virus will continue to cause healthcare system collapse until either a vaccine is developed or enough of the population contracts it and builds up immunity, which slows the spread to a level that hospitals can manage. It’s called herd immunity, and experts have been estimating 40-70% of the world will contract it before herd immunity has a noticeable effect.

Granted, there are still a ton of unknowns, but the SARS-CoV-2 virus hasn’t been mutating fast enough to join the ranks of seasonal illness. The hypotheticals of this becoming another everyday risk either come from a place of ignorance or sociopathy.
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:43 AM
 
561 posts, read 278,754 times
Reputation: 478
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
Right, the virus will continue to cause healthcare system collapse until either a vaccine is developed or enough of the population contracts it and builds up immunity, which slows the spread to a level that hospitals can manage. It’s called herd immunity, and experts have been estimating 40-70% of the world will contract it before herd immunity has a noticeable effect.
It sounds like neither of those cases will happen anytime soon, so when do you predict this lockdown will end then?
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Old 03-31-2020, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Houston, TX
3,125 posts, read 1,197,002 times
Reputation: 4304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
Right, the virus will continue to cause healthcare system collapse until either a vaccine is developed or enough of the population contracts it and builds up immunity, which slows the spread to a level that hospitals can manage. It’s called herd immunity, and experts have been estimating 40-70% of the world will contract it before herd immunity has a noticeable effect.

Granted, there are still a ton of unknowns, but the SARS-CoV-2 virus hasn’t been mutating fast enough to join the ranks of seasonal illness. The hypotheticals of this becoming another everyday risk either come from a place of ignorance or sociopathy.
As to the first paragraph, there is a third possibility: treatment. With a bit of luck on our side, we should have a good one in the summer. There are several drugs in clinical trials as well as an antibody exchange that show promise. If we can get solid treatment, then yes, it can become just another everyday risk. The right treatment can be the difference between a virus being a serial killer vs. an inconvenience. Before antibiotics, cutting your hand on the wrong thing could kill you. Now nobody thinks of that as an issue. More recently, AIDS was a murderer in the worst kind of way in the 80s. Now, people get it and it doesnt even disrupt their dating life because we have treatment.

As to your second paragraph, yes actually the evidence is becoming quite clear that it will be cyclical. MIT, the University of Maryland, and the NIH among many others have all said that is what they believe. Its pretty clear from case numbers that weather plays a significant role in spread. This of course can be overcome by gathering thousands of people in one place for an event (like Mardi Gras or Spring Break) and we cannot rely on it. We still have to do the heavy lifting in the form of social distancing, but warm and humid weather can be our helping hand. Warm humid weather does slow the spread of the virus. It will not stop it completely, but it can help.
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