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Old 07-16-2020, 01:57 AM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
6,441 posts, read 4,011,790 times
Reputation: 4481

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Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
It can? The 2018 senate was was the closest the state has had in decades. Cruz won by less than 2%. Thats something that no one ever thought would happen this quickly. That goes against your point.

As for your statement that most people who move here are conservative, prove it.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dal...outputType=amp

People forget that the “born in Texas” age pyramid is like a third world country, Texas migration is so massive that the born in Texas category is much younger than the transplant category and folks who are younger are also more Asian and Hispanic and thus are more likely to vote for Democrats. Transplants actually skew conservative and have always had imo. People just think they don’t because transplants Move to formerly deep red areas in the suburbs/outskirts of the city so compared to their neighbors their much more liberal but they actually skew conservative. It’s the younger generation born in Texas or raised in Texas that is causing Texas to trend blue not the migrants. Just look at Austin as much as people talk about California migration to Austin it’s always been a blue city and where did most of those folks come from UT and Government something like 85% (Highest in the nation) Of UT and 100% of government guys in Austin are Texas born and raised yet it’s by far our bluest city. San Antonio with the least out of state transplants out of the big 5 (It might be more than FW but I’m pretty sure its less) is our 2nd bluest city.
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Old 07-16-2020, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Denver
4,716 posts, read 8,532,846 times
Reputation: 5957
Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
It’s the younger generation born in Texas or raised in Texas that is causing Texas to trend blue not the migrants.
Anecdotally, I would confirm this. It makes sense to me because for the past couple generations, Americans have been moving from their birthplaces to areas more suited to their desired lifestyle. Texas is known for being a conservative place, and it’s a common refrain in a lot of the relocation threads here about how they want to be around more conservative people. Yet, in my experience as a dreaded Millennial who moved to an outdoors mecca full of transplants, young Texans generally trend far more leftist than young people from even more stereotypically blue parts of the country. We’ve grown up in the post-Reagan neocon order, and most of us, even if we benefitted in the system, saw how the intense competition we’ve been raised in screws over our peers. We’re also crazy diverse and more likely to be cognizant of how socioeconomic background affects your performance in said competition.
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Old 07-16-2020, 11:13 AM
 
Location: Houston
5,582 posts, read 4,853,398 times
Reputation: 4528
Quote:
Originally Posted by Westerner92 View Post
Anecdotally, I would confirm this. It makes sense to me because for the past couple generations, Americans have been moving from their birthplaces to areas more suited to their desired lifestyle. Texas is known for being a conservative place, and it’s a common refrain in a lot of the relocation threads here about how they want to be around more conservative people. Yet, in my experience as a dreaded Millennial who moved to an outdoors mecca full of transplants, young Texans generally trend far more leftist than young people from even more stereotypically blue parts of the country. We’ve grown up in the post-Reagan neocon order, and most of us, even if we benefitted in the system, saw how the intense competition we’ve been raised in screws over our peers. We’re also crazy diverse and more likely to be cognizant of how socioeconomic background affects your performance in said competition.
As a Reagan-generation Gen X libertarian-minded type, I commend the younger generation on recognizing how historical oppression, racism etc. has tilted the playing field in many ways and inhibited equal opportunity, and how that needs to change.

However, I am extremely disappointed how the under-40 crowd has ignorantly and selfishly adopted a narrative of economic victimization and violation, invented out of whole cloth, and looks longingly toward socialism and mega-amplification of the execrable FDR New Deal as the way forward. I'm sure part of the blame lies on parents who decided to raise youngsters without informing them that their righteous role in society as youth and young adults is to be exploited. That is how a proper society works. Now in TX we have to face the horrifying music given that our population skews young - if we don't somehow exclude the under-40s, they will take the state and country into a terrible place regarding economic policy and federal government involvement. TX's political outlook regarding the role of government is dangerously warped by the malformed under-40 crowd.
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Old 07-16-2020, 11:56 AM
 
6,219 posts, read 3,543,383 times
Reputation: 5055
Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dal...outputType=amp

People forget that the “born in Texas” age pyramid is like a third world country, Texas migration is so massive that the born in Texas category is much younger than the transplant category and folks who are younger are also more Asian and Hispanic and thus are more likely to vote for Democrats. Transplants actually skew conservative and have always had imo. People just think they don’t because transplants Move to formerly deep red areas in the suburbs/outskirts of the city so compared to their neighbors their much more liberal but they actually skew conservative. It’s the younger generation born in Texas or raised in Texas that is causing Texas to trend blue not the migrants. Just look at Austin as much as people talk about California migration to Austin it’s always been a blue city and where did most of those folks come from UT and Government something like 85% (Highest in the nation) Of UT and 100% of government guys in Austin are Texas born and raised yet it’s by far our bluest city. San Antonio with the least out of state transplants out of the big 5 (It might be more than FW but I’m pretty sure its less) is our 2nd bluest city.

So is there some truth to the idea that the Democrats want the borders with Latin America to remain open as possible for that reason?
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Old 07-16-2020, 12:01 PM
 
Location: Denver
4,716 posts, read 8,532,846 times
Reputation: 5957
Quote:
Originally Posted by LocalPlanner View Post
I'm sure part of the blame lies on parents who decided to raise youngsters without informing them that their righteous role in society as youth and young adults is to be exploited.
LOL, this is genuinely some of the dumbest drivel I've ever read. If you want to go into DM's to keep the thread from going off topic, I'll type out a point-by-point essay of everything that's wrong with this, from the economic and physical realities that you're blind to, to the the use of "righteous role" and "exploit" being in direct conflict with "libertarian-minded".
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Old 07-16-2020, 04:37 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,006 posts, read 7,151,202 times
Reputation: 17101
Getting back to the topic of the thread - here's some analysis I did based on the recent polling in Texas:

The most reliable recent poll is CBS/Yougov, showing Trump +1, 46% to 45%. Yougov was the 2nd most accurate pollster in 2016 and also did well predicting the 2018 TX senate race - they predicted Cruz's percentage correctly.

If this poll's remaining undecideds performed according to its age crosstabs for the existing Trump and Biden respondents, this would be the result:

Trump 48.7%
Biden 47.6%
Other 3.7%

The big question mark is that "other" vote. In 2016 in Texas there was indeed an "other" vote of 4.5%, but neither the Greens nor Libertarians have good candidates this time. In 2008 and 2012 the "other" vote in TX was about 1%. In the 2018 senate race it was about 0.8%. So if some of that 3.7% swung towards Biden, or the undecideds swing more his way than I expect, and considering the 3.4% margin of error, Biden can take this.

I also looked at the Dallas Morning News poll showing Biden +5, 48% to 43%. The difference is that DMN's sample was a little bit more weighed toward under-45 voters. That gave them an extra couple points worth of non-whites - in particular, DMN sees an electorate that has 2% more blacks and 3% more young people (young being under 45) than Yougov does. They also seemed to push undecideds slightly more. DMN's demographic sample is closer to the 2018 electorate, kind of in-between 2016 and 2018. The Yougov poll was more cautious with their sample, making it more like 2012. That's what gets you Biden +5 vs. Trump +1

Taken together, these are both good polls with big samples. Trump is in TROUBLE. Let's compare their crosstabs to the 2018 senate exit polls:

The 18-29s and the over 65's are cancelling each other out and pretty similar to 2018. Where Trump is clearly getting killed is the 30-64 groups. In 2018 30-44's voted for O'Rourke by 4, and 45-64s for Cruz by 17. These polls show Biden winning 30-44s by 10, and Trump only winning 45-64s by 7. That's a huge swing.

The trend this year is pretty close. People made a mistake characterizing Texas as a solid red state. Even in the Democrats worst days which was during the early Bush years, Texas was never as solid red state like a Wyoming or a Utah. The Democrats' worst performance was 2000-2004 when Al Gore and John Kerry only got 38%. Starting in 2008 that jumped to the low 40s. Obama never tried to win Texas and got 43% in 2008 and 41% in 2012. Hillary Clinton did not campaign in Texas either but she did make some ad buys, and matched Obama's 2008 performance of 43%. Beto O'Rourke in 2018 had near-presidential level turnout for a mid-term and got 48%. So it looks like Democrats start with about 5 more points of Democratic base than they used to for most of the 2000s. They've always had a pretty decent sized Democratic base of about 40% of the voting population. Now it's more like 45%.

Looking at the trend this cycle, Texas started closer than normal since Trump was never as strong here as other Republicans or as in his better states like Tennsee or West Virginia. And the state's Democratic base is larger than it used to be. Clearly as the virus became more severe, Trump's standing suffered. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...818.html#polls

My take is that if Texas is still struggling with the virus by the Fall, Biden might well win. Trump needs to finish strong or he risks losing the state.

Last edited by redguard57; 07-16-2020 at 04:51 PM..
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Old 07-16-2020, 04:52 PM
 
6,219 posts, read 3,543,383 times
Reputation: 5055
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Getting back to the topic of the thread - here's some analysis I did based on the recent polling in Texas:

The most reliable recent poll is CBS/Yougov, showing Trump +1, 46% to 45%. Yougov was the 2nd most accurate pollster in 2016 and also did well predicting the 2018 TX senate race - they predicted Cruz's percentage correctly.

If this poll's remaining undecideds performed according to its age crosstabs for the existing Trump and Biden respondents, this would be the result:

Trump 48.7%
Biden 47.6%
Other 3.7%

The big question mark is that "other" vote. In 2016 in Texas there was indeed an "other" vote of 4.5%, but neither the Greens nor Libertarians have good candidates this time. In 2008 and 2012 the "other" vote in TX was about 1%. In the 2018 senate race it was about 0.8%. So if some of that 3.7% swung towards Biden, or the undecideds swing more his way than I expect, and considering the 3.4% margin of error, Biden can take this.

I also looked at the Dallas Morning News poll showing Biden +5, 48% to 43%. The difference is that DMN's sample was a little bit more weighed toward under-45 voters. That gave them an extra couple points worth of non-whites - in particular, DMN sees an electorate that has 2% more blacks and 3% more young people (young being under 45) than Yougov does. They also seemed to push undecideds slightly more. DMN's demographic sample is closer to the 2018 electorate, kind of in-between 2016 and 2018. The Yougov poll was more cautious with their sample, making it more like 2012. That's what gets you Biden +5 vs. Trump +1

Taken together, these are both good polls with big samples. Trump is in TROUBLE. Let's compare their crosstabs to the 2018 senate exit polls:

The 18-29s and the over 65's are cancelling each other out and pretty similar to 2018. Where Trump is clearly getting killed is the 30-64 groups. In 2018 30-44's voted for O'Rourke by 4, and 45-64s for Cruz by 17. These polls show Biden winning 30-44s by 10, and Trump only winning 45-64s by 7. That's a huge swing.

The trend this year is pretty close. People made a mistake characterizing Texas as a solid red state. Even in the Democrats worst days which was during the early Bush years, Texas was never as solid red state like a Wyoming or a Utah. The Democrats' worst performance was 2000-2004 when Al Gore and John Kerry only got 38%. Starting in 2008 that jumped to the low 40s. Obama never tried to win Texas and got 43% in 2008 and 41% in 2012. Hillary Clinton did not campaign in Texas either but she did make some ad buys, and matched Obama's 2008 performance of 43%. Beto O'Rourke in 2018 had near-presidential level turnout for a mid-term and got 48%. So it looks like Democrats start with about 5 more points of Democratic base than they used to for most of the 2000s. They've always had a pretty decent sized Democratic base of about 40% of the voting population. Now it's more like 45%.

Looking at the trend this cycle, Texas started closer than normal since Trump was never as strong here as other Republicans or as in his better states like Tennsee or West Virginia. And the state's Democratic base is larger than it used to be. Clearly as the virus became more severe, Trump's standing suffered. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...818.html#polls

My take is that if Texas is still struggling with the virus by the Fall, Biden might well win. Trump needs to finish strong or he risks losing the state.
Jo Jorgensen is certainly considered a better candidate than Gary Johnson.
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Old 07-16-2020, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,006 posts, read 7,151,202 times
Reputation: 17101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foamposite View Post
Jo Jorgensen is certainly considered a better candidate than Gary Johnson.
"Better" in this case means "higher profile."

Gary Johnson and William Weld were well-regarded former governors able to get more funding and publicity than any Libertarian ticket pretty much ever. Gary Johnson fwiw was pretty good at appealing to young people with his marijuana policy. Had he not made the Aleppo faux pas they probably would have done better and possibly swung the 2016 election.

Jo Jorgensen is a psychology professor with no political experience and her running mate is a podcaster. They may be more intellectually competent when it comes to Libertarian philosophy than Johnson or Weld were, but they are not better candidates by a long shot.
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Old 07-16-2020, 05:44 PM
 
Location: Rose capitol of Texas
552 posts, read 221,107 times
Reputation: 967
Quote:
Originally Posted by LocalPlanner View Post
As a Reagan-generation Gen X libertarian-minded type, I commend the younger generation on recognizing how historical oppression, racism etc. has tilted the playing field in many ways and inhibited equal opportunity, and how that needs to change.

However, I am extremely disappointed how the under-40 crowd has ignorantly and selfishly adopted a narrative of economic victimization and violation, invented out of whole cloth, and looks longingly toward socialism and mega-amplification of the execrable FDR New Deal as the way forward. I'm sure part of the blame lies on parents who decided to raise youngsters without informing them that their righteous role in society as youth and young adults is to be exploited. That is how a proper society works. Now in TX we have to face the horrifying music given that our population skews young - if we don't somehow exclude the under-40s, they will take the state and country into a terrible place regarding economic policy and federal government involvement. TX's political outlook regarding the role of government is dangerously warped by the malformed under-40 crowd.
I accidentally gave you a rep when I meant to quote you.

I pray these under 40's that you loathe so much get out and vote against your interests.

They are not the scum you make them out to be. You collect a guaranteed check every
month as a retiree if you are because your government representatives looked out for
you and your rights.

Do you actually know anyone under the age of 40, or do you ever casually try to get to
know anyone under the age of 40 to find out their situations?

I am almost 57, mom of a 25 yr. old who lives independently and I live in the most
conservative part of East Texas. I speak to young people everyday. I meet them
working at stores and I read indeed.com to study the jobs available and how much
they pay, etc. I have full confidence in our younger generations. They are smart
and they very concerned about their future.

I'll have you know that rich white pharma lobbyists are happy to flood the streets
with their dangerous narcotics marketed to kids in order to line their pockets.
Raise their corporate tax rate and they make sure you do not get elected. If you
were under the age of 40, what on earth would the Trump administration offer
you as a voter? Trump leading the GOP has all the credibility of a crazy old
man wearing a bathrobe standing outside yelling "You kids get off my lawn!".

Your above quoted post says it all. Get rid of ALL the old dinosaurs who have entrenched
themselves in government for over 30 years. That is the swamp. All of them.
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Old 07-16-2020, 05:49 PM
 
6,219 posts, read 3,543,383 times
Reputation: 5055
Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
"Better" in this case means "higher profile."

Gary Johnson and William Weld were well-regarded former governors able to get more funding and publicity than any Libertarian ticket pretty much ever. Gary Johnson fwiw was pretty good at appealing to young people with his marijuana policy. Had he not made the Aleppo faux pas they probably would have done better and possibly swung the 2016 election.

Jo Jorgensen is a psychology professor with no political experience and her running mate is a podcaster. They may be more intellectually competent when it comes to Libertarian philosophy than Johnson or Weld were, but they are not better candidates by a long shot.
I'm seeing much more enthusiasm for JoJo among libertarians, and she is even more pro drug legalization than gary. She also wants to abolish the ATF.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tylerrose View Post
I accidentally gave you a rep when I meant to quote you.

I pray these under 40's that you loathe so much get out and vote against your interests.

They are not the scum you make them out to be. You collect a guaranteed check every
month as a retiree if you are because your government representatives looked out for
you and your rights.

Do you actually know anyone under the age of 40, or do you ever casually try to get to
know anyone under the age of 40 to find out there situations?

I am almost 57, mom of a 25 yr. old who lives independently and I live in the most
conservative part of East Texas. I speak to young people everyday. I meet them
working at stores and I read indeed.com to study the jobs available and how much
they pay, etc. I have full confidence in our younger generations. They are smart
and they very concerned about their futures.

I'll have you know that rich white pharma lobbyists are happy to flood the streets
with their dangerous narcotics marketed to kids in order to line their pockets.
Raise their corporate tax rate and they make sure you do not get elected. If you
were under the age of 40, what on earth would the Trump administration offer
you as a voter? Trump leading the GOP has all the credibility of a crazy old
man wearing a bathrobe yelling "You kids get off my lawn!".

Your above quoted post says it all. Get rid of ALL the old dinosaurs who have entrenched
themselves in government for over 30 years. That is the swamp. All of them.
I hare Trump but I'm a young dude and I'm disappointed by how many people (young and old) who want massive government.
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