Texas Political landscape going into the 2020 elections (Houston, Austin: credit, home)

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by EDS_

No it's not.

My wife and I have a bailout plan.

What will happen is simple. As TX drifts left. Taxes will increase. Nearly all of those new taxes will be bundled into prices yielding increased prices. Effective buying power per dollar, especially among lower earners will decrease. As such real poverty levels will increase.

The sad part of all this is the people who likely deserve to be helped, chiefly minority workers, are the ones who really get hammered by the progressive drift left.

Right now reasonable analysis of incomes + taxes + COL shows that places like DFW, Houston etc. are better for lower wage earners than places like NYC, Boston, LA, Seattle, SF, Portland etc. All of this is underscored by the fact that minorities, especially working class black people in particular have been fleeing West Coast progressive cities for years. Blacks are also leaving Chicago but the reasons are less clear.


https://www.city-journal.org/html/bl...ter-14336.html

A different angle:
https://madison365.com/what-no-one-w...essive-cities/

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During my lifetime California has lurched left politically. During that time poverty metrics in CA have gotten far worse. CA has the worst/highest COL adjusted poverty rate in country and has for years. For a number of years nearly 1/3 of the nation's welfare population lived in CA.

Certainly, real estate costs are part of this. But CA has had very high relative RE costs since just after WWII. The sickening poverty metrics are a new thing and jibe with the political shift. And these same things to one degree of another have occurred across several states (and even countries) as they've drifted left.

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When all this hits Texas hard - and everyone here with a thimble full of honesty knows it will - I'm probably out.

Maybe you will move and others might as well but the reality is most wont even with higher taxes. Higher taxes rarely lead to large exodus of population

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

Maybe you will move and others might as well but the reality is most wont even with higher taxes. Higher taxes rarely lead to large exodus of population

I get that some people like to say that but the numbers don't lie. Many high tax areas of The US have seen flat to declining domestic growth for years. CA is beginning to see lower and middle income people leave.

https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by EDS_

I get that some people like to say that but the numbers don't lie. Many high tax areas of The US have seen flat to declining domestic growth for years. CA is beginning to see lower and middle income people leave.

https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

Did you read what you linked?

According to data from the American Community Survey, from 2007 to 2016, about 5 million people moved to California from other states, while about 6 million left California. On net, the state lost 1 million residents to domestic migration—about 2.5 percent of its total population. These population losses are low in historical terms.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by EDS_

I get that some people like to say that but the numbers don't lie. Many high tax areas of The US have seen flat to declining domestic growth for years. CA is beginning to see lower and middle income people leave.

https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265

People are leaving California because its expensive more than anything else. I wont defend their tax structure because its not what Id prefer. What I want is for Texas to be purple, not blue or red. Right now Im voting only blue in state elections. In California, Id probably be voting red in a lot of state elections.

Solid blue is bad, solid red is worse, purple is best.

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

Did you read what you linked?

Yes. Did you? Much of the "high" price structure in CA and other high cost states is taxes bundled into prices.

If you don't understand that or won't acknowledge as much you are kidding yourself.

[Foamposite]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

The major cities already there. Houston, Dallas(I’m not sure FW votes differently than Dallas) San Antonio and Austin. Texas will roll over it’s just a matter of when

It's not true because Fort Worth is already more blue than the state of Texas itself.

[Foamposite]

Originally Posted by HeimlichManure

Good luck with that. The GOP have destroyed any goodwill they had with the Hispanic community. I knew plenty of Hispanics who would've had no problem voting Republican in 2012. After Trump came around, though? Not a chance. The GOP have really shot themselves in the foot in that regard.

If that were true, then Abbott would have not have gotten a large chunk of the Hispanic vote in 2018

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by EDS_

Yes. Did you? Much of the "high" price structure in CA and other high cost states is taxes bundled into prices.

If you don't understand that or won't acknowledge as much you are kidding yourself.

Sorry I’m fact based and the net departures at 2.5% of population, well under historical averages aren’t significant. Try again to support your claim

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

Sorry I’m fact based and the net departures at 2.5% of population, well under historical averages aren’t significant. Try again to support your claim

I'm an economist who gets the facts just fine...................I thought maybe you'd dig below the surface at least a litte. Did you miss the graph indicating ~300,000 net people left CA to TX between 2007-2016. The last number I read says ~350,000 between 2007-2019.

And your point is very weak at best. CA's net migration being down vs. the past does not mean the problem has vanished.

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by EDS_

I'm an economist who gets the facts just fine...................I thought maybe you'd dig below the surface at least a litte. Did you miss the graph indicating ~300,000 net people left CA to TX between 2007-2016. The last number I read says ~350,000 between 2007-2019.

And your point is very weak at best. CA's net migration being down vs. the past does not mean the problem has vanished.

As an economist surely you’d recognize in the numbers that the migration out isn’t solely based on taxes. Once you’ve accepted that and it’s net inflow and outflow are less than 3% so ignore historical norms if you want but the truth is most people aren’t moving simply because of an increase in taxes, period.