Texas Political landscape going into the 2020 elections (Houston, Dallas: to live in, centers)

[EDS_]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

As an economist surely you’d recognize in the numbers that the migration out isn’t solely based on taxes. Once you’ve accepted that and it’s net inflow and outflow are less than 3% so ignore historical norms if you want but the truth is most people aren’t moving simply because of an increase in taxes, period.

You really should calm down. Reread what I wrote and maybe take 15 minutes to study up on state and local tax burdens and then mentally superimpose that information on current migration trends. Hanging on to the data point that CA's negative domestic migration numbers aren't as bad as in the past is silly and you are using it to hide from an economic point that you don't like.

Extra credit.......you might want to consider what was happening in CA the last couple of times the migration numbers you are so fond of were worse...........compare what was going to there to TX maybe?

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by Lowexpectations

As an economist surely you’d recognize in the numbers that the migration out isn’t solely based on taxes. Once you’ve accepted that and it’s net inflow and outflow are less than 3% so ignore historical norms if you want but the truth is most people aren’t moving simply because of an increase in taxes, period.

You know the biggest problem with intelligence? When people get too caught up in numbers they forget to use simple reasoning. Analytics doesn’t determine everything. Some people swear by it but there are outside factors. Here’s something that your analysis isn’t explaining: why is Texas turning more and more liberal fairly quickly for the past decade every single election?

Anyway, I’m actually on your side. I don’t think people are moving to Texas to get to a conservative state. But just like EDE numbers don’t tell the full story, we have to be fair and remember our numbers don’t either.

[Lowexpectations]

Originally Posted by EDS_

You really should calm down. Reread what I wrote and maybe take 15 minutes to study up on state and local tax burdens and then mentally superimpose that information on current migration trends. Hanging on to the data point that CA's negative domestic migration numbers aren't as bad as in the past is silly and you are using it to hide from an economic point that you don't like.

Extra credit.......you might want to consider what was happening in CA the last couple of times the migration numbers you are so fond of were worse...........compare what was going to there to TX maybe?

Point me to the proof the migration is due solely or in large part to taxes.

[atgss]

Okay then, reading and reading without any definitive "direction" politically via the posts I ask these questions: Will Texas ever turn Blue? Will the governorship ever turn Blue?


I like RED btw.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by atgss

Okay then, reading and reading without any definitive "direction" politically via the posts I ask these questions: Will Texas ever turn Blue? Will the governorship ever turn Blue?


I like RED btw.

The big cities in Texas are already solid blue. The suburbs are 50/50 but are trending blue. The counties along the border are also blue. The mid-sized cities, small cities, towns and rural areas are red.

I would say Texas won’t get redder than it is now. It’s future is probably a light red or purple state.

[Foamposite]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

The big cities in Texas are already solid blue. The suburbs are 50/50 but are trending blue. The counties along the border are also blue. The mid-sized cities, small cities, towns and rural areas are red.

I would say Texas won’t get redder than it is now. It’s future is probably a light red or purple state.

The only way I can see Texas getting redder in an election is if the next GOP nominee isn't racially divisive like Trump, and especially if they're from Texas.

[supfromthesite]

There will never be a Republican who is not racially divisive. Even hispanic Republicans get called racist. Even George Bush was called a racist. The media has figured out that they can play up the racist Republican boogieman and they aren't just going to let it go.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

The big cities in Texas are already solid blue. The suburbs are 50/50 but are trending blue. The counties along the border are also blue. The mid-sized cities, small cities, towns and rural areas are red.

I would say Texas won’t get redder than it is now. It’s future is probably a light red or purple state.

Well, to be fair, only Fort Bend County and Hays county have turned blue. Fort Worth and Tarrant County is still light red. Forth Worth is the last remaining big city that's red, though. Maybe by the election Tarrant County will flip.

Next suburban counties likely to shift blue:

-Tarrant County, the last remaining red big city.
-Williamson County, to be Austin's second suburban blue county, after Hays.
-Collin County, likely to be the first suburban county in DFW, probably not in the upcoming elections.
-Denton County, won't go blue next elections but is headed in that direction
-Brazoria County, the biggest surprise on the list since its home to Lake Jackson & company. But the southern Houston suburbs such as Pearland are growing, shifting it blue recently.

[atgss]

Thanks all, the way it looks to me from your comments that eventually Texas overall will only get bluer and bluer with a blue governor.

Then "bye-bye" Texas IMO.


I already live in a State Of Tyranny in NJ that I wasn't responsible for by my vote and don't want to potentially "walk" into another one.

[Foamposite]

Originally Posted by atgss

Thanks all, the way it looks to me from your comments that eventually Texas overall will only get bluer and bluer with a blue governor.

Then "bye-bye" Texas IMO.


I already live in a State Of Tyranny in NJ that I wasn't responsible for by my vote and don't want to potentially "walk" into another one.

So why not move to Texas and vote red? Texas is way more conservative than New Jersey, that's for sure.