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Old 06-13-2020, 09:53 PM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
9,851 posts, read 6,566,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Foamposite View Post
White conservative voters have yet to make any city redder. White transplants into cities (at least major cities) tend to be ultra liberal.

Also, Hispanics are increasing population wise pretty much everywhere in the country, so I don't really believed that they're being "pushed out" en masse.
Agreed, I was wondering where that came from. Fort Worth is the last major city to join the blue wave, but is headed that way.
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Old 06-14-2020, 10:31 AM
 
6,222 posts, read 3,593,062 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
Agreed, I was wondering where that came from. Fort Worth is the last major city to join the blue wave, but is headed that way.
If anything, white transplants make cities more actively liberal.
NYC in the 1990s elected Rudy Giuliani. That would NEVER happen in today's NYC or even 10 years ago.
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Old 06-14-2020, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,180 posts, read 19,449,121 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brock2010 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
It’s going to come down to the suburbs. Democrats have no shot in the rural, small, or medium size cities like Lubbock and Amarillo. Republicans have no shot in the actual cities of Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and in the future, Fort Worth. They are trying their best to hold on to Tarrant county but it is going to be very tough. Fort Worth is likely already blue.

Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, and Williamson counties could be the counties that swing Texas either red, purple, or blue. I don’t know if we see that happen in 2020. But 2024 will be very interesting. The urban counties of Harris, Travis, Dallas, Bexar, El Paso, and maybe Tarrant are going to become even more blue each cycle. Fort Bend I think is blue from now on. The others could very well be toss ups in the very near future.
I can definitely see this happening. We hear often about red states becoming blue or bluer but are there blue states that have become red over time?
West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas would certainly fit into that category, as all three were fairly Democratic through the 90's.

More recently, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania might eventually lead that way, however a bit too early to tell. None of those went GOP since the 80's and Trump won them all, however it was less than 1 point and they all experienced some level of pull back in the 2018 midterms.

There has certainly been a bit of a trend in the suburbs nationwide, although some areas certainly did go through it before others. Suburbs have become increasingly more diverse, and white college educated suburbanites, which were once a key base of the GOP have become increasingly Democratic. Whites without a college degree on the other hand have increasingly become more and more Republican (especially in rural areas) This trend generally predates Trump, but he has accelerated it.


Putting the demographic changes aside, which is an issue for the GOP, another problem for Republicans is white suburbanites continue to trend towards the Democrats (even areas like Montgomery County while still very heavily GOP isn't quite as Republican as it was). Rural whites and whites without a college degree nationwide are trending Republican, and in some areas help counteract the Democratic trend in the suburbs (see Pennsylvania), or even lead to a Republican trend. In Texas, those voters are already voting so heavily Republican there isn't much room with them to gain in order to counterbalance the Democratic trends in the metro areas.
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Old 06-15-2020, 05:51 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,514 posts, read 33,513,431 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tstone View Post
There are a few from the NE and W. coast, but the majority of the suburban transplants I've encountered in different neighborhoods I've lived in are from red states in the Deep South and Great Plains that have stagnant economies. They ''got out'' by having good grades and bachelors degrees but they still bring their religious right-wing belief systems with them-- some of which would make native Texans cringe. I don't think any red suburbs (around Houston) are turning blue for 2020 or even 2024.
Yeah I would bet Collin and Denton turn blue before Brazoria, Galveston, and especially Montgomery counties. That said, I do expect Harris and Fort Bend to be even more blue in 2020 and 2024. I could be wrong but I read that most native Texans actually voted for Beto and a great many of transplants voted for Cruz in the 2018 election.
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:32 AM
 
976 posts, read 1,055,489 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Yeah I would bet Collin and Denton turn blue before Brazoria, Galveston, and especially Montgomery counties. That said, I do expect Harris and Fort Bend to be even more blue in 2020 and 2024. I could be wrong but I read that most native Texans actually voted for Beto and a great many of transplants voted for Cruz in the 2018 election.
True, I am a native that voted for Beto over Cruz. I'd rather Texas become a purple moderate state than a deep red or deep blue state. Cruz was way too far right to move Texas in the right direction.
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Old 06-15-2020, 12:25 PM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
9,851 posts, read 6,566,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by H'ton View Post
True, I am a native that voted for Beto over Cruz. I'd rather Texas become a purple moderate state than a deep red or deep blue state. Cruz was way too far right to move Texas in the right direction.
that’s why he was nearly dethroned.
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Old 06-15-2020, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
9,851 posts, read 6,566,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Yeah I would bet Collin and Denton turn blue before Brazoria, Galveston, and especially Montgomery counties. That said, I do expect Harris and Fort Bend to be even more blue in 2020 and 2024. I could be wrong but I read that most native Texans actually voted for Beto and a great many of transplants voted for Cruz in the 2018 election.
My take is Collin will for sure turn blue before HOU gets its second suburban blue county. DFW has 0 suburban blue counties, it will get one before HOU gets its second.

I’m not so sure about Denton going blue before Brazoria. Obviously when you think Brazoria, you think Lake Jackson so it throws you off. But the Southern Houston suburbs portion of the county are pushing it blue already.

Galveston I dont see going blue anytime soon, as it’s not a big bedroom community. Galveston County has a fairly strong job market, but so many of those workers live in Pearland, Pasadena etc. Many don’t even want to live in Texas City.
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Old 06-15-2020, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Clear Lake, Houston TX
8,376 posts, read 30,691,505 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
Galveston I dont see going blue anytime soon, as it’s not a big bedroom community. Galveston County has a fairly strong job market, but so many of those workers live in Pearland, Pasadena etc. Many don’t even want to live in Texas City.
Most of them live in League City, which is a small town turned into a large bedroom community of 110k. That place has grown by leaps & bounds over the past 15 years and still has plenty of room left. Dickinson was also growing fast- until Harvey sunk it. But you're right about Galveston Co. staying red... You can count on that. The Galveston Co. side of Friendswood helps it out as well.
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Old 06-15-2020, 06:05 PM
 
6,222 posts, read 3,593,062 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
that’s why he was nearly dethroned.
Cornyn is just as conservative as him and I bet he'll win by a larger margin than Cruz did.
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Old 06-15-2020, 07:11 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
20,514 posts, read 33,513,431 times
Reputation: 12147
Quote:
Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag View Post
My take is Collin will for sure turn blue before HOU gets its second suburban blue county. DFW has 0 suburban blue counties, it will get one before HOU gets its second.

I’m not so sure about Denton going blue before Brazoria. Obviously when you think Brazoria, you think Lake Jackson so it throws you off. But the Southern Houston suburbs portion of the county are pushing it blue already.

Galveston I dont see going blue anytime soon, as it’s not a big bedroom community. Galveston County has a fairly strong job market, but so many of those workers live in Pearland, Pasadena etc. Many don’t even want to live in Texas City.
Well. People like to talk about Collin County goin blue in the near future by looking at the 2018 senate results. Collin County was so by Cruz by 6.2%. But Denton County wasn’t that far behind with Cruz only winning by 8.2%. Brazoria went to Cruz by nearly 18%. Brazoria may indeed become competitive soon. But I don’t see that happening before Denton.
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