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Old 11-03-2021, 01:21 PM
 
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To be fair, Austin burbs are fairly moderate to conservative. Although it’s about as blue as you get in TX in the city proper. It did shock me however that Biden won WilCo, I can’t help but feel it was largely a retaliation against Trump than approval of Biden.
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Old 11-03-2021, 01:49 PM
 
Location: West of Louisiana, East of New Mexico
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My guess is that Texas is turning purple and will start to become more of a swing state in national elections but may remain more "red" in statewide elections.

Rural whites = super duper red

Rural Latinos = red

Blacks/Asians = blue

Urban whites = light blue/light red

Suburban whites = light blue/light red

Urban Latinos = light/medium blue

Suburban Latinos = light blue/light red


I'm just scattershooting.........but it feels like the reason people vote Dem or Rep varies. Rural whites appear to vote more on culture and values. Less educated or rural Latinos vote more GOP than people expect, but I feel like this is more about jobs than cultural reasons, though the cultural stuff plays a part.


Blacks in Texas are somewhat socially conservative with high Baptist church attendance but Republicans never really try to court them and seemingly go out of their way to turn them off.

Asians are such a broad category. First generation Asians might be a bit more inclined to lean conservative and then their kids and grand kids end up leaning more liberal with time. That observation is purely anecdotal based on people I know. Not sure the average Vietnamese 40-year old would be as conservative as an Indian 40-year old, but who knows.


End of the day.......Whites in Texas are overwhelmingly Republican. Blacks/Asians are pretty strongly in the Democrat camp but makeup a fairly small percentage of the population. Latinos lean Democrat but not enough to offset the white GOP voters. Either the white population will grow a smidge more "blue" or Democrats will need to figure out how exactly to reach Latinos. Of course a 9th generation college grad Mexican-American/Tejano in San Antonio is going to view things differently from a 1st-generation El Salvadorean with an 8th grade education living on the border. Latinos comprise too many subgroups to be effectively targeted in Texas.

At some point, the Texas GOP is going to have broaden their appeal. They've been able to put it off for awhile but it'll cost them statewide races sooner rather than later. It'll be interesting to see how each side handles this.
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Old 11-03-2021, 01:59 PM
 
Location: Unplugged from the matrix
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The thing about Texas is its "blue dog democrats" that voted for Ann Richards or Clinton turned conservative to vote R at the same time the conservatives already voting Republican in the state remained the same. There's been a "woke" revolt too which is part of the reason why Republicans won in the RGV, which is definitely an urban area at over one million people.

There are millions of Texans who grew up in the state with conservative policies and they see how more accessible things are to them than people in other states. I have friends who used to have a romanticized view of California. One told me "maybe CA was always like this but we were too young to see it."
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:00 PM
 
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My neighbors, that moved from other states are almost all red voters.


The ones from MI, IL, Upstate NY and yes...CA.



I have talked with them and they came from states that were majority ruled by the blues and they want ZERO to do with blue policies. Not one of them plans on voting blue or for Beto or wants anything to do with leftism.



This is in the NW Houston suburbs.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DabOnEm View Post
The thing about Texas is its "blue dog democrats" that voted for Ann Richards or Clinton turned conservative to vote R at the same time the conservatives already voting Republican in the state remained the same. There's been a "woke" revolt too which is part of the reason why Republicans won in the RGV, which is definitely an urban area at over one million people.
The voters your are referencing are socially conservative populists. They were never progressive on social issues but were not against higher taxes on the wealthy and union bargaining. But the populist vote is firmly in the GOP now.

But it has been traded for the suburban, college educated vote. Whether or not that was a good thing for the GOP wont be known for a while.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider Scott View Post
My neighbors, that moved from other states are almost all red voters.


The ones from MI, IL, Upstate NY and yes...CA.



I have talked with them and they came from states that were majority ruled by the blues and they want ZERO to do with blue policies. Not one of them plans on voting blue or for Beto or wants anything to do with leftism.



This is in the NW Houston suburbs.
But then again this is just the counter to what Ive been saying. All the ones I know are blue voters.

In the end we cant tell which is going to be more influential in swinging the state one way or the other.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:16 PM
 
1,958 posts, read 642,439 times
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Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
But then again this is just the counter to what Ive been saying. All the ones I know are blue voters.

In the end we cant tell which is going to be more influential in swinging the state one way or the other.

But the idea that all the CA transplants are voting blue does not seem true...based on the CA people I talk to. It is actually amazing how many CA transplants live near me in Cypress.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider Scott View Post
But the idea that all the CA transplants are voting blue does not seem true...based on the CA people I talk to. It is actually amazing how many CA transplants live near me in Cypress.
The key word is "based on the CA people I talk to.". The literal exact opposite is true for me.

An easy way to look at this is the most recent redistricting maps submitted. With the exception of the DFW area which was sliced and diced beyond recognition, where the districts were drawn with the intent of packing Democrats, Republicans are going to be few and far between. It doesnt work on the inverse because all other districts were drawn with the intent of being comfortable but not exclusively Republican. Thats how gerrymandering works.

I bring that up because I live in a district that was drawn to pack Democrats into. You live in a comfortable Republican district. That is going to influence who we are around regardless of where they are from.

So which one of us is right? We both are and we arent to a degree. We cant really grasp it without looking at trends long term. Not from one election, but from what has Texas been doing over the last 10-20 years.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:49 PM
 
1,958 posts, read 642,439 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by As Above So Below... View Post
The key word is "based on the CA people I talk to.". The literal exact opposite is true for me.

An easy way to look at this is the most recent redistricting maps submitted. With the exception of the DFW area which was sliced and diced beyond recognition, where the districts were drawn with the intent of packing Democrats, Republicans are going to be few and far between. It doesnt work on the inverse because all other districts were drawn with the intent of being comfortable but not exclusively Republican. Thats how gerrymandering works.

I bring that up because I live in a district that was drawn to pack Democrats into. You live in a comfortable Republican district. That is going to influence who we are around regardless of where they are from.

So which one of us is right? We both are and we arent to a degree. We cant really grasp it without looking at trends long term. Not from one election, but from what has Texas been doing over the last 10-20 years.

I live in a district represented by Lizzie Fletcher. Hardly a Republican.
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Old 11-03-2021, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
7,368 posts, read 4,037,090 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raider Scott View Post
I live in a district represented by Lizzie Fletcher. Hardly a Republican.
Did you not see the redistricting maps?

You will more than likely be in district 38 which will be comfortable Republican.
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