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View Poll Results: Where will Texas' population max out?
40+ million 9 26.47%
50+ million 15 44.12%
60+ million 10 29.41%
Voters: 34. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-07-2022, 10:33 AM
 
Location: Houston
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dopo View Post
It all goes down to cost of living,
The moment cost of living gets too high, people will stop coming to Texas
Thing is, it's relative. People will make the job opportunity vs. housing cost calculation comparing different areas of the country. For decades, even though California was clearly more expensive housing-wise than elsewhere, it still grew rapidly - it really had to get to the extreme situation it's now in for growth to slow dramatically.

Texas still does well in opportunity vs. housing cost calculation relative to West Coast and the Northeast, and apart from Austin is comparable to many areas in the South. However, if the Midwest or Plains start to really grow the job base, Texas (which has become more expensive than much of those areas) won't look as good in the calculation.
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Old 11-07-2022, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
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Unless the U.S ramps up immigration again, while Texas is a relatively young state. Even with all the growth the number of live births in the state has stayed around 370,000-410,000 since 2005, because fertility has been dropping as the population has expanded. Ignoring Covid numbers, the number of deaths in Texas has gone from 155,000 in 2005 to 200,000 in 2019. So in real numbers growth is slowing, even though we are a really fertile state. We could also get a local migrant boom which currently is about 30% of our growth (International immigration is 20% and babies are 50%). This could help fuel our numbers to higher heights but I doubt Texas gets much over 50,000,000.

Dallas- 13 million
Houston- 12 million
Austin- 4.5 million
San Antonio- 4.5 million
I can see these cities hitting these population and the rest of Texas growing from around 10 million to 16 million.
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Old 11-07-2022, 06:04 PM
 
Location: Belton, Tx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atadytic19 View Post
The long term growth rate has not been linear though.
Seems like Texas doubles it's population every 40 years.

In 1900 it was 3M
That doubled to 6.5M in 1940
Doubled again to 14M in 1980
And doubled again to 29M in 2020

So if long term trends continue till you are 83 that should be 60M not 47M.

30M seems like a lot. That's what, 750K a year? I think 500k is doable, but not 750k. 500k would be closer to your calculation of modern trends but 40 years is so long that the historical trends numbers are still possible.

At its fastest California took 70 years to gain 30M people. So 30M in 40 years would be faster than the US has ever seen. If both states growth rates remain the same, both will have similar populations in about 20 years.
I didn't know that about how quickly Texas' population doubles. I did a little more searching and saw this article that said if Texas were a country, it'd rank 9th ahead of Australia. I know that's off topic but still interesting.
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Old 11-07-2022, 06:20 PM
 
Location: Belton, Tx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Unless the U.S ramps up immigration again, while Texas is a relatively young state. Even with all the growth the number of live births in the state has stayed around 370,000-410,000 since 2005, because fertility has been dropping as the population has expanded. Ignoring Covid numbers, the number of deaths in Texas has gone from 155,000 in 2005 to 200,000 in 2019. So in real numbers growth is slowing, even though we are a really fertile state. We could also get a local migrant boom which currently is about 30% of our growth (International immigration is 20% and babies are 50%). This could help fuel our numbers to higher heights but I doubt Texas gets much over 50,000,000.

Dallas- 13 million
Houston- 12 million
Austin- 4.5 million
San Antonio- 4.5 million
I can see these cities hitting these population and the rest of Texas growing from around 10 million to 16 million.
I could see those numbers for those cities/regions. I wonder if El Paso will do well with growth in the future or will it's location in the desert hinder it especially with global warming and more intense droughts thrown in the mix?
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Old 11-07-2022, 08:11 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brock2010 View Post
I could see those numbers for those cities/regions. I wonder if El Paso will do well with growth in the future or will it's location in the desert hinder it especially with global warming and more intense droughts thrown in the mix?
El Paso was passed by McAllen as the #5 metro in the state. I see McAllen continuing to grow while El Paso being so so.

Apart from that Texas has a handful of metros (Corpus, Brownsville, Killeen) that are about 500k and (Midland/Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo, Tyler, Longview, College Station, Waco) that are about 300K.

There are a ton of options in Texas, but outside the Texas Triangle I would look to the Valley or East Texas for future growth. For all the talk of nice weather areas West Texas & the Panhandle have been stagnant compared to the more humid eastern half of the state.
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Old 11-07-2022, 09:22 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atadytic19 View Post
El Paso was passed by McAllen as the #5 metro in the state. I see McAllen continuing to grow while El Paso being so so.

Apart from that Texas has a handful of metros (Corpus, Brownsville, Killeen) that are about 500k and (Midland/Odessa, Lubbock, Amarillo, Tyler, Longview, College Station, Waco) that are about 300K.

There are a ton of options in Texas, but outside the Texas Triangle I would look to the Valley or East Texas for future growth. For all the talk of nice weather areas West Texas & the Panhandle have been stagnant compared to the more humid eastern half of the state.
Future growth areas for Texas: smaller metros in the triangle.

So Killeen-Temple, Waco and College Station being the big 3

The Valley and possibly El Paso if further integration economically with Mexico happens.

Tyler probably gonna be the fastest growing city outside the triangle and you could probably say fastest growing outside of College Station/Bryan for cities outside the big 4.

Corpus Christi- largely because it had big city attributes and is a secondary port after Houston. Coastal Texas needs more love and I don’t think the Valley with its tourist coast is gonna fulfill that, as well as ports in mexico just over the border.

Lubbock- largely because of Texas Tech’s prominence is gonna be related to the prominence of Texas as a state and as arguably number 3 (competing with U of H) of the big public schools it will take over especially for the Non-UH going Texans in the triangle who couldn’t get into A and M or UT. Texas State and UNT could catch up given the size of Denton and San Marcos as edge cities going into the future.
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Old 11-07-2022, 09:59 PM
 
Location: Houston/Austin, TX
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I could see College Station getting a major construction boom as a result of the Aggie Highway
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Old 11-07-2022, 10:48 PM
 
Location: Belton, Tx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NigerianNightmare View Post
Future growth areas for Texas: smaller metros in the triangle.

So Killeen-Temple, Waco and College Station being the big 3

The Valley and possibly El Paso if further integration economically with Mexico happens.

Tyler probably gonna be the fastest growing city outside the triangle and you could probably say fastest growing outside of College Station/Bryan for cities outside the big 4.

Corpus Christi- largely because it had big city attributes and is a secondary port after Houston. Coastal Texas needs more love and I don’t think the Valley with its tourist coast is gonna fulfill that, as well as ports in mexico just over the border.

Lubbock- largely because of Texas Tech’s prominence is gonna be related to the prominence of Texas as a state and as arguably number 3 (competing with U of H) of the big public schools it will take over especially for the Non-UH going Texans in the triangle who couldn’t get into A and M or UT. Texas State and UNT could catch up given the size of Denton and San Marcos as edge cities going into the future.
Right, most of the metros are growing with the exception of 3 Texarkana (my hometown), Wichita Falls and Beaumont-Port Arthur which lost population or just stagnant. I know the Lufkin or Nacogdoches areas aren't a metro but I can see it becoming one. San Angelo seems stable. Don't know much about Amarillo or Victoria. As for Midland-Odessa looks like it's still growing despite the oil slowdown.
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Old 11-08-2022, 08:53 AM
 
Location: Houston
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brock2010 View Post
Right, most of the metros are growing with the exception of 3 Texarkana (my hometown), Wichita Falls and Beaumont-Port Arthur which lost population or just stagnant. I know the Lufkin or Nacogdoches areas aren't a metro but I can see it becoming one. San Angelo seems stable. Don't know much about Amarillo or Victoria. As for Midland-Odessa looks like it's still growing despite the oil slowdown.
San Angelo is growing. Amarillo has had steady incremental growth for a long time.

No one has mentioned Laredo, but it has grown a fair bit and should continue doing so.
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Old 11-08-2022, 10:28 AM
 
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I really don't know about those west of 35 cities growing much without major water issues.

As I said before, McAllen has replaced El Paso as #5, and together with Brownsville the RGV has about 1.5M people.

That's a sizeable area that's not often talked about. It's the lowest income metro area in the state so we are not going to see a flood of domestic migrants there, but natural increase and international migrants are fueling growth.

Also, people cross between Texas and the Mexican State of Tamaulipas every day. The trans-border metropolitan areas in the lower RGV make up an area over 4M people.
In 2020 Reynosa- McAllen had a population about 1.8M
Matamoros - Brownsville about 1.4M
Nuevo Laredo- Laredo about 800k

So technically that area has about the same number of people as central Texas.

It would definitely be nice if Texas had another major metro (1M+) on the coast. From a logistics point of view, Corpus is halfway between Houston and the Valley and about the same distance away from central Texas. It's amazing how empty that triangle made by those three 4M plus population centers is. Being equidistant from those 3 Corpus should be able to exploit that.

College Station is right outside Houston MSA and a stone's throw from Killeen, Austin and Waco, with SA just down the road. I used to wonder why it isn't bigger, but I'm mainly familiar with the college area and the people I interacted with made me leave with the impression that the place is filled with weirdos.

Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Tyler, Marshal, basically Jefferson down to Lake Livingston is highly underrated. I am more attracted to East Texas scenery than the Hill Country.
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