Where do you think Texas' population will ultimately reach? (Houston: how much, construction)

[brock2010]

Texas' population is currently fast approaching the 30 million milestone. Where do you think the population will ultimately max out?

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Good question. I sometimes wonder about this myself. I think the second derivative growth may have already peaked.

[malcorub16]

For context, Texas population went from 25 million in 2010 to 29.5 million today. CA population is currently 39 million.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by malcorub16

For context, Texas population went from 25 million in 2010 to 29.5 million today. CA population is currently 39 million.

That's true. The amount of growth in such a short period is crazy.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

Good question. I sometimes wonder about this myself. I think the second derivative growth may have already peaked.

A lot of people talk about how much land we have to build on but sooner or later we'll have to begin worrying about our water supply. I think the population will either get to 45 million or close to it before things start to stabilize.

[Dopo]

It all goes down to cost of living,
The moment cost of living gets too high, people will stop coming to Texas

[atadytic19]

Originally Posted by Dopo

It all goes down to cost of living,
The moment cost of living gets too high, people will stop coming to Texas

Home prices are already going down in Texas.
I think it will continue to decrease.

There are stats on the Texas housing market that are published quarterly. It detail housing increases and construction.

There was tightening during covid and the supply had dwindled. I think the last report I saw showed that San Antonio was the only one that wasn't building enough and DFW and especially Houston was building in excess. I think prices across the board were down.

It's an interesting report. It sometimes gives economic data for the metros. It even gives percentage of people in metros likely to default on their mortgage.

[NewMexicoCowboy]

Originally Posted by brock2010

Texas' population is currently fast approaching the 30 million milestone. Where do you think the population will ultimately max out?

I think the population of Texas will be at least 50 million by the time I am a really old man.

[brock2010]

Originally Posted by NewMexicoCowboy

I think the population of Texas will be at least 50 million by the time I am a really old man.

I'm 44 now and just hypothetically if I live to be 83 in 39 years, based on current growth trends could add another 16 million or so by 2062 for a population of 47.5 million.

[atadytic19]

Originally Posted by brock2010

I'm 44 now and just hypothetically if I live to be 83 in 39 years, based on current growth trends could add another 16 million or so by 2062 for a population of 47.5 million.

The long term growth rate has not been linear though.
Seems like Texas doubles it's population every 40 years.

In 1900 it was 3M
That doubled to 6.5M in 1940
Doubled again to 14M in 1980
And doubled again to 29M in 2020

So if long term trends continue till you are 83 that should be 60M not 47M.

30M seems like a lot. That's what, 750K a year? I think 500k is doable, but not 750k. 500k would be closer to your calculation of modern trends but 40 years is so long that the historical trends numbers are still possible.

At its fastest California took 70 years to gain 30M people. So 30M in 40 years would be faster than the US has ever seen. If both states growth rates remain the same, both will have similar populations in about 20 years.