Could Texas go BLUE? (Houston, Dallas: high crime, house, school)

[Mom2Feebs]

My opinion is that it is doubtful, but possible.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

I doubt that will happen anytime soon also, but it is possible. Too many people with property to let the government take control of it, too many people with guns , so I don't see it turning blue for a while.

Houston has a lot of diversity, and a lot of transplants, but they are concentrated in certain areas of town, most of the surrounding area is deep red, or as Murtha said, 'a bunch of rednecks'. Not that there is anything wrong with rednecks.

The concentrated areas of Houston is where you find poor blacks, Latinos and Asians, this is where your blue comes from. It's hard not to vote for the hand that feeds you.

I work the elections in my county as an election judge, and I can assure you, Texas is not going blue for a long time.

[Spade]

Originally Posted by Metro Matt

You are wrong

Whites represent 48.9% of the population in Texas according to the 2006 Census. How fair is it to compare one demographic group to five others?

I think you are misunderstanding him. Texas, along with Hawaii, New Mexico, and California, are the only states that have a larger minority population than the majority population. The majority population is obviously White. The minorities equal the population of the rest of Texas. So in actuality, it is fair. Besides, there are still more Whites in Texas than Hispanics.

Anyway, to answer the question. It could happen. It all comes down to how he does in his first couple years of his first term and if the democrats really have an interest in the state by spending money. I believe they will start spending money now since the demographics are changing. For Texas to go blue, the democrats MUST hit the suburbs. Ft. Bend County and maybe even Galveston county I believe will be blue in 2012 and so will Tarrant (not a suburban county but still a huge change).

[Spade]

That's not true. Houston is a magnet for college educated kids and many of the Rice U and UH students went to Obama. It wasn't just poor hispanics, blacks, and whites. Everybody that voted for Obama is not poor and it wasn't concentrated. Obama won the city of Houston just like Kerry did in 2004.

And you are selling Texas short when it comes to changing. McCain barely won Ft. Bend County and the republicans had closer than normal percentages in Galveston and Tarrant County. With the exception of Comal County, the Austin-San Antonio area is also going blue. Again, the republican had closer than normal percentages in Williamson AND Bell County which is home to Ft. Hood.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

Originally Posted by Spade

That's not true. Houston is a magnet for college educated kids and many of the Rice U and UH students went to Obama. It wasn't just poor hispanics, blacks, and whites. Everybody that voted for Obama is not poor and it wasn't concentrated. Obama won the city of Houston just like Kerry did in 2004.

And you are selling Texas short when it comes to changing. McCain barely won Ft. Bend County and the republicans had closer than normal percentages in Galveston and Tarrant County. With the exception of Comal County, the Austin-San Antonio area is also going blue. Again, the republican had closer than normal percentages in Williamson AND Bell County which is home to Ft. Hood.

I agree with you spade, there are many educated people in Houston. Perhaps you misunderstood what I said, which is that there are large concentrations of poor ethnic groups who will always vote for Democratic for obvious reasons, and not that it was just poor voters.

Based on my years of working the elections, I've seen this trend. It happened after H., the pendulum swung in Clinton's favor, then it swung in W.'s favor, and as expected, it swung again to Democrats. I will predict that it will swing for Republicans in 2012, or 2016.

I think both sides need to be careful, because this pendulum swings harder with each swing, not softer.

[malamute]

I think now that Obama is going to give citizenship to those here illegally from Mexico and allow them to start bringing in family members that are still back home, which is going to be a significant number of people moving in, Texas will very likely go blue.

[Bike4Life]

It's the end of GOP. We are tired of grumpy old pals.

[HookTheBrotherUp]

Originally Posted by malamute

I think now that Obama is going to give citizenship to those here illegally from Mexico and allow them to start bringing in family members that are still back home, which is going to be a significant number of people moving in, Texas will very likely go blue.

'Very well could happen. This is the kinetic energy that drives the pendulum I am speaking of.

[Smooth from ELP]

Not all of Austin is Blue. Just Travis county is blue (where all the "Keep Austin Weird" crowd lives). You have the majority of long time Austinites, hippies, and alternative lifestyles live in this county. Williamson, Hays, and Bastrop are red counties. This is where the good ol' boys, rednecks, and some transplants live.

[usc619]

I hope not, I kind of like living behind enemy lines