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Old 07-09-2016, 04:12 PM
 
Location: Toronto
15,106 posts, read 15,757,609 times
Reputation: 5196

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachF View Post
NYC was a crime-ridden, bankrupt, declining dump in the 70s though.


The longer the bubble goes on and larger it gets, the worse the bust is gonna be.... just ask Japan.


Canadian home prices are more out of whack than ours were at the 2007 peak.


Canadian real estate IS in a bubble, along with Australia. This time is NOT different.
Well its hard for me to really be all that concerned about it. Even a bubble bursting isn't going to stop the growth in Toronto. about 250K to 300K immigrants and refugees will most likely continue to come to Canada yoy decade after decade. The GTA will continue to get about 25 percent of those immigrants and refugees (its still better living here with a burst bubble than where the are coming from). They need to be housed somewhere! There is already an uptick in rental buildings being constructed in Toronto again along with condo's etc. Detached homes are super expensive in Toronto - Condo's and apartment buildings not so much.

So again regarding the bubble like most Torontonians its a big MEH. I mean I can't even underscore how much of a MEH it is to us lol.. Did I say MEH

As for NYC - I have no long term concerns about its prominence. It'll always be a prominent global city. On a smaller scale I have no long term concerns about Toronto. It'll continue to be a prosperous, large and growing metropolis.

Last edited by fusion2; 07-09-2016 at 04:22 PM..
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Old 07-09-2016, 04:22 PM
 
Location: NH/UT/WA
283 posts, read 257,764 times
Reputation: 437
Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
Well its hard for me to really be all that concerned about it. Even a bubble bursting isn't going to stop the growth in Toronto. about 250K to 300K immigrants and refugees will most likely continue to come to Canada yoy decade after decade. The GTA will continue to get about 25 percent of those immigrants and refugees (its still better living here with a burst bubble than where the are coming from). They need to be housed somewhere! There is already an uptick in rental buildings being constructed in Toronto again along with condo's etc. Detached homes are super expensive in Toronto - Condo's and apartment buildings not so much.

So again regarding the bubble like most Torontonians its a big MEH. I mean I can't even underscore how much of a MEH it is to us lol..
If the bubble bursts, immigration will certainly slow down greatly. It happened in the US, Ireland, and others, it will happen to Canada. Canada as a whole relies on immigration now for population growth more than the US does. Immigrants won't come if there aren't any jobs, and a bursting bubble has pushed down the currency so much that wages aren't nearly as attractive as they once were (this is important to immigrants because they often like to send surplus earnings back home to their families)

The reason immigration to Canada was so high over the last few years was the twin engines of real estate and oil pushing up the currency/wages and plentiful jobs. If both of those disappear, immigration will disappear. It will hurt, but Canada will come out stronger, just like the US did after our bubble bursts. It will have an economy that makes and invents things instead of just digging things out of the ground and building empty investment condos while the real economy hollows out.

Toronto will likely still grow if the bubble bursts, just likely at about half the rate or less that it used to.
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Old 07-09-2016, 04:48 PM
 
Location: Toronto
15,106 posts, read 15,757,609 times
Reputation: 5196
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZachF View Post
If the bubble bursts, immigration will certainly slow down greatly. It happened in the US, Ireland, and others, it will happen to Canada. Canada as a whole relies on immigration now for population growth more than the US does. Immigrants won't come if there aren't any jobs, and a bursting bubble has pushed down the currency so much that wages aren't nearly as attractive as they once were (this is important to immigrants because they often like to send surplus earnings back home to their families)

The reason immigration to Canada was so high over the last few years was the twin engines of real estate and oil pushing up the currency/wages and plentiful jobs. If both of those disappear, immigration will disappear. It will hurt, but Canada will come out stronger, just like the US did after our bubble bursts. It will have an economy that makes and invents things instead of just digging things out of the ground and building empty investment condos while the real economy hollows out.

Toronto will likely still grow if the bubble bursts, just likely at about half the rate or less that it used to.
Ummmm yeah... We'll see.. If things happen as you predict by all means report back.. Of course if they don't happen as you predict by all means report back as well

You can do that right? I'll keep a close eye on the growth rate of the Toronto CMA over the next years. I always look at it bubble or no bubble so if the bubble goes POP - i'll look at subsequent statscan figures for CMA growth yoy and i'll be the first to say ZachF said this would happen and he was right

I know someone in here who said to me definitely based on models that Stephen Harper WILL win the election yet again in 2015 and will be the next PM lalalalalala...
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Old 07-09-2016, 04:55 PM
 
10,275 posts, read 10,266,692 times
Reputation: 10644
Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
I already posted at length why Toronto Pearson is a global hub. Look at these airports you are posting about - they are far less internationally connected than Pearson.
Yes, obviously, because they are in a much bigger domestic market. Just like Toronto is far less internationally connected than Amsterdam, using your logic. It doesn't mean that Toronto has a less important airport than Amsterdam; it's just that there are no domestic flights in Netherlands.

Similarly, Canada is largely empty and Toronto is a huge border metropolis, so flights will go mostly to the U.S. There are few Canadian population centers of any consequence.

Your logic is that airport size is irrelevent to importance; what matters is % of flights that aren't domestic. If that's the case, than the most important airports on earth are in countries where there are no domestic flights. So the Luxembourgs and Singapores of the world are most important, and the JFK, LAX, CDG, Pudong, Haneda type airports, with large domestic markets, are somehow less important, despite being bigger air hubs.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Toronto
15,106 posts, read 15,757,609 times
Reputation: 5196
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Yes, obviously, because they are in a much bigger domestic market. Just like Toronto is far less internationally connected than Amsterdam, using your logic. It doesn't mean that Toronto has a less important airport than Amsterdam; it's just that there are no domestic flights in Netherlands.

Similarly, Canada is largely empty and Toronto is a huge border metropolis, so flights will go mostly to the U.S. There are few Canadian population centers of any consequence.

Your logic is that airport size is irrelevent to importance; what matters is % of flights that aren't domestic. If that's the case, than the most important airports on earth are in countries where there are no domestic flights. So the Luxembourgs and Singapores of the world are most important, and the JFK, LAX, CDG, Pudong, Haneda type airports, with large domestic markets, are somehow less important, despite being bigger air hubs.
I said Toronto was a global hub airport. I didn't say it was a bigger global hub airport than Amsterdam, JFK, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Narita (Haneda isn't much of a global hub), Beijing etc etc. I also didn't say strong domestic traffic isn't important it just doesn't make the case that if most of your traffic is domestic that you are a global hub airport. You're not. That said, if you are an airport that has direct flights to all populated continents in the world and you have the second largest international connectivity in N.A - yes you are a global hub airport.

Atlanta is the busiest airport in the world but its got feeble international connectivity compared to the Toronto's, JFK's or Chicaogo's of the world. It doesn't mean it isn't busier or isn't important to Delta airlines' domestic transportation hub and spoke system - it just means it isn't all that when it comes to International flow of pax or goods.. Toronto is more that (even eliminating U.S cities) when it comes to international connectivity. It isn't the most that but it is more that and yes - it is a global hub. If you don't consider it that you don't know what you're talking about.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:07 PM
 
2,829 posts, read 3,156,810 times
Reputation: 2266
Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
Well its hard for me to really be all that concerned about it. Even a bubble bursting isn't going to stop the growth in Toronto. about 250K to 300K immigrants and refugees will most likely continue to come to Canada yoy decade after decade. The GTA will continue to get about 25 percent of those immigrants and refugees (its still better living here with a burst bubble than where the are coming from). They need to be housed somewhere! There is already an uptick in rental buildings being constructed in Toronto again along with condo's etc. Detached homes are super expensive in Toronto - Condo's and apartment buildings not so much.

So again regarding the bubble like most Torontonians its a big MEH. I mean I can't even underscore how much of a MEH it is to us lol.. Did I say MEH

As for NYC - I have no long term concerns about its prominence. It'll always be a prominent global city. On a smaller scale I have no long term concerns about Toronto. It'll continue to be a prosperous, large and growing metropolis.
I think both of you miss the bigger picture here - that is how rising real estate prices in the two major Canadian cities is increasingly outpacing real wage and income growth to the extent where many millenial workers in the years to come will find it increasingly difficult in terms of rental and home ownership in Toronto city proper.

Vancouver is a prime example of that and has recently drawn national attention to its housing crises. Sure, rising real estate prices along with a construction boom can be a good thing for the local economy - it creates jobs, boosts local and national GDP, and along with a nice skyline. But the downside is that it has the potential to make the area more costly and increasingly UNattractive for first time buyers and renters of the millenial generation - the very people we need to power a 21st century economy:

CBC Toronto: Toronto-area home sale price jumps by staggering 16.8% in June
Vancouver's soul-crushing real-estate market is now forcing renters to compete in bidding wars
Federal High Commission on Housing Crisis: Home ownership an unaffordable dream in Toronto and Vancouver
CBC Toronto: Real estate chaos sends millennials scrambling before they're priced out
Canadian Finance minister speak at global economic summit on housing crisis


And before one points out how economically beneficial a construction boom can be, keep in mind that a disproportionate amount of the boom is fueled by foreign investment, essentially "hot money" that come and go as Canada's economic fortunes change, as Stats Canada finds:

CBC: New condo ownership by foreign buyers most prominent in Toronto and Vancouver

Vancouver just saw a mind-boggling 31% year on year rise in real estate prices in 2016, where as Toronto also saw 17% increase in home sale price during the same period. The flip side is that, real median household income both cities only increased by 0.5~2% during the same period, tampered by higher inflation due to the slump in CAD foreign exchange rate. Which begs the question: is this a sustainable development strategy? Not just economically but also the social and political implications for the Canadian government when 1 million+ first time buyers and even more renters are priced out of the market while real household income trend falls far, far, far behind the real estate price surge.

So perhaps we could all tone down the usual chest-thumping booster talk or the bubble-waiting end-of-world predictions, and focus on how an unaffordable and increasingly unsustainable housing market is and will drastically impact the livelihood of millions of middle-class Canadians and millenial workers. We can all be proud of the fact that Canada boasts several of the world's most livable cities by UN/Economist standards, but how relevant are these rankings when the vast majority of our middle-class are and will no longer be able to benefit from these world class cities and their associated amenities? I truly hope that the Trudeau and future Canadian governments can address the above issues with urgency before they evolve into bigger social and political crises.

Last edited by bostonkid123; 07-09-2016 at 05:28 PM..
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:09 PM
 
10,275 posts, read 10,266,692 times
Reputation: 10644
Quote:
Originally Posted by fusion2 View Post
NToronto has had a pretty solid head start in the DT core development game.
You're acting like there's some "competitive race" to build the most generic condo boxes in various cities.

Yes, Toronto has had an impressive, and enviable boom, in its core, and yes, the boom is greater than that in American cities (excepting NYC). But what you're not mentioning is the why.

Toronto has a very limited rail and road network. It's a very congested city, and very difficult to commute across long distances. Also, homes are much more expensive relative to income. This means that there's a STRONG preference for people to live in multifamily close to work, meaning close to the core. In the U.S. there's generally no such preference, since regional mobility is so much easier.

In Chicago, for example, many of the wealthy live along the North Shore, or in the Western suburbs. Commuting downtown is quite easy and fast, and isn't much different from commuting in equivalent neighborhoods within the city downtown. But Toronto doesn't have such equivalents. The rich neighborhoods are clustered along Yonge, close to easy road and rail connections downtown.

So a prosperous family in the Toronto area will be HIGHLY incentivized to live in a condo close to the core if they want decent quality of life. A prosperous family in the Chicago area will have no such incentive, unless they specifically prefer urban living.

Even in NYC, there's little commuting/mobility incentive to live in the core. A commute from prime suburbs in Westchester is about the same as a commute from the best parts of Brownstone Brooklyn. Hence the wealthy who live in the core specifically value urban living, and those that don't generally live elsewhere. Toronto doesn't have a Westchester/Connecticut typology, "those folks" are already clustered along Yonge.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:25 PM
 
Location: Toronto
15,106 posts, read 15,757,609 times
Reputation: 5196
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
You're acting like there's some "competitive race" to build the most generic condo boxes in various cities.

Yes, Toronto has had an impressive, and enviable boom, in its core, and yes, the boom is greater than that in American cities (excepting NYC). But what you're not mentioning is the why.

Toronto has a very limited rail and road network. It's a very congested city, and very difficult to commute across long distances. Also, homes are much more expensive relative to income. This means that there's a STRONG preference for people to live in multifamily close to work, meaning close to the core. In the U.S. there's generally no such preference, since regional mobility is so much easier.

In Chicago, for example, many of the wealthy live along the North Shore, or in the Western suburbs. Commuting downtown is quite easy and fast, and isn't much different from commuting in equivalent neighborhoods within the city downtown. But Toronto doesn't have such equivalents. The rich neighborhoods are clustered along Yonge, close to easy road and rail connections downtown.

So a prosperous family in the Toronto area will be HIGHLY incentivized to live in a condo close to the core if they want decent quality of life. A prosperous family in the Chicago area will have no such incentive, unless they specifically prefer urban living.

Even in NYC, there's little commuting/mobility incentive to live in the core. A commute from prime suburbs in Westchester is about the same as a commute from the best parts of Brownstone Brooklyn. Hence the wealthy who live in the core specifically value urban living, and those that don't generally live elsewhere. Toronto doesn't have a Westchester/Connecticut typology, "those folks" are already clustered along Yonge.
I'm not saying there is a competitive race to build the most condo boxes. Toronto sure has a lot of those but they're getting better. In any event its the people in those boxes that make a difference to a place. When they live in those and close to the core that means they go out and shop and eat and engage in activities in the core and nabe's around it instead of living in their house an hour away spending time in the backyard barbequing hamburgers and drinking a Bud. They work close to where they live. It increases the dynamism of the core instead of them living in some house far away and simply commuting back and forth to work.

Ask Botti if he'd rather live in some big a** house in the burbs or in his condo in DT Toronto. He works and lives DT and prefers that and you can't blame him. After work he can go to a restaurant or go out with friends, take in theatre or go to Chinatown etc etc. That isn't something he could do if he had to get on some GO train and travel an hour north to Bradford.

Hey if that is the preference of an individual that is fine but it certainly isn't everyone's preference. I think Torontonians and Canadians in general (as is the case with many countries in the world) have more of a penchant for living in more dense urban areas than most Americans. You make it look as though living in some house far away from the urban heart of a city is the pinnacle of human lifestyle achievement and everyone is in a competitive race to live in some big house away from the urban action.

A lot of people simply choose and prefer to live in or close to the DT core of Toronto. The only reason I don't is because my partner and I don't work DT and we don't want to commute too far to/fro work. If people In Toronto are highly incentivized to live in more dense quarters twist our rubber arms lol! Its great! I'm actually considering moving back to the core simply because transit options are improving. What used to take me an hour and fifteen minutes each way has been almost cut in half - thus i'm tempted... My partner has given the green light as he will either commute or go back to school anyway. We live only 5 minutes from the subway and that gets us DT in 25 minutes but its not the same as walking out the front door and being at Woody's in 5 minutes walk.

Why are you so obsessed with the wealthy and their experience btw? Most people aren't wealthy. I read yours and Botti's exchange and I must say - his commentary made me smile and proud of him.

Last edited by fusion2; 07-09-2016 at 05:46 PM..
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:30 PM
 
Location: Toronto
659 posts, read 895,430 times
Reputation: 549
I think we need a Toronto vs Chicago sub forum.
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Old 07-09-2016, 05:37 PM
 
Location: Toronto
15,106 posts, read 15,757,609 times
Reputation: 5196
Quote:
Originally Posted by bostonkid123 View Post
I think both of you miss the bigger picture here - that is how rising real estate prices in the two major Canadian cities is increasingly outpacing real wage and income growth to the extent where many millenial workers in the years to come will find it increasingly difficult in terms of rental and home ownership in Toronto city proper.

Vancouver is a prime example of that and has recently drawn national attention to its housing crises. Sure, rising real estate prices along with a construction boom can be a good thing for the local economy - it creates jobs, boosts local and national GDP, and along with a nice skyline. But the downside is that it has the potential to make the area more costly and increasingly UNattractive for first time buyers and renters of the millenial generation - the very people we need to power a 21st century economy:

CBC Toronto: Toronto-area home sale price jumps by staggering 16.8% in June
Vancouver's soul-crushing real-estate market is now forcing renters to compete in bidding wars
Federal High Commission on Housing Crisis: Home ownership an unaffordable dream in Toronto and Vancouver
CBC Toronto: Real estate chaos sends millennials scrambling before they're priced out
Canadian Finance minister speak at global economic summit on housing crisis


And before one points out how economically beneficial a construction boom can be, keep in mind that a disproportionate amount of the boom is fueled by foreign investment, essentially "hot money" that come and go as Canada's economic fortunes change, as Stats Canada finds:

CBC: New condo ownership by foreign buyers most prominent in Toronto and Vancouver

Vancouver just saw a mind-boggling 31% year on year rise in real estate prices in 2016, where as Toronto also saw 17% increase in home sale price during the same period. The flip side is that, real median household income both cities only increased by 0.5~2% during the same period, tampered by higher inflation due to the slump in CAD foreign exchange rate. Which begs the question: is this a sustainable development strategy? Not just economically but also the social and political implications for the Canadian government when 1 million+ first time buyers and even more renters are priced out of the market while real household income trend falls far, far, far behind the real estate price surge.

So perhaps we could all tone down the usual chest-thumping booster talk or the bubble-waiting end-of-world predictions, and focus on how an unaffordable and increasingly unsustainable housing market is and will drastically impact the livelihood of millions of middle-class Canadians and millenial workers. We can all be proud of the fact that Canada boasts several of the world's most livable cities by UN/Economist standards, but how relevant are these rankings when the vast majority of our middle-class are and will no longer be able to benefit from these world class cities and their associated amenities? I truly hope that the Trudeau and future Canadian governments can address the above issues with urgency before they evolve into bigger social and political crises.
I definitely think that affordable housing is an important thing to address in Toronto. As it would be in many large cities. I read an article recently that some guy in S.F had his rent raised something like 400 percent and he is in dire straights so I don't want to see Toronto turn into a place where most people can't even afford to rent a commie block apartment in the city. I don't care about affordable detached homes.. Toronto doesn't need any more of those. What it needs is affordable housing options in general. Affordable condo's and affordable apartments. If that doesn't happen you are right - things will get gloomy for a lot of people.
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