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The FBI reports that only about 2/3 of all KNOWN homicides (15,000 a year) are cleared by arrest. Note that 100% of all homicides that are NOT recognized as homicides remain unsolved, which could be any number, but very likely high. Apparent accidents, suicides, overdoses, natural causes, misadventures, simple disappearances, etc.
If one out of three obvious murders is never solved, and large numbers of those are spur of the moment and completely unplanned, we can conclude that a little bit of planning raises your chances to at least 50-50, even it you leave a scene that looks like a murder. A few days of more careful planning by a reasonable person who is not an obvious suspect raises your chances closer and closer to certainty that you will get away with it.
Several years ago, in a vanishingly rare case of investigative reporting, a San Francisco paper reported that of the 80 homicides being investigated by police so far that year, only about 5 or 10 had so far resulted in the arrest of a suspect. (I'm going from memory on those numbers.)
I would bet that if 100 city-data users got together and agreed that each of us would commit a murder within the next year, only one or two of us would get caught, and maybe none of us.
I would bet that if 100 city-data users got together and agreed that each of us would commit a murder within the next year, only one or two of us would get caught, and maybe none of us.
Are you suggesting a few of us get together and agree on a list???
I think a majority of murders that go unsolved are street crimes, where no one talks or cooperates with police. The average law abiding citizen is too stupid to get away with a murder of passion. Random hit on the street is much easier, but the real challenge is clipping someone you know.
I gleaned from my true crime readings that when a spouse is killed, historically, there's a 75-80% chance the spouse was involved. Yikes! You come home some night, your spouse is found in a pool of blood, 10 police officers show up, and 8 have Guilty stamped on their foreheads. And what if you were completely innocent? What a nightmare! It takes nothing short of an Einstein to get away with killing a spouse.
In jurisdictions, where there's been a wave of murders, the rate of solving murders drops, as one would expect. Or in very small rural towns where there's a shortage of good homicide detectives.
Solving cases is also dependent on the nagging and determination of family members, as I've also gleaned from my true crime readings. An hysterical, steely-determined family member pesters and pesters the investigators, day in/day out, until they reach the state of madness, also helps. Many merely become apathetic to the relief of the police investigators.
If my brother ever dies (worth far more dead than alive), even if it be crossing a street and hit by a car, I'll call those investigators a half-dozen times a day, 7 days a week, until she's arrested!
I think a majority of murders that go unsolved are street crimes, where no one talks or cooperates with police. The average law abiding citizen is too stupid to get away with a murder of passion. Random hit on the street is much easier, but the real challenge is clipping someone you know.
I think a lot of people get away with murdering children too, considering how many are missing and never found.
I think a lot of people get away with murdering children too, considering how many are missing and never found.
You're right. Children are such easy targets and it doesn't surprise me. I can't tell you how many really small kids (ages 4 - 8) I see out roaming the streets or playing about unattended. I'm baffled by some of these parents out there who let their children wander or walk the streets by themselves.
Most people can't keep their mouths shut. A lot of crimes are solved because somebody just can't do the deed and not tell somebody. Most of the crimes I've prosecuted involve somebody telling other people what they did, and of course, they tell two friends, and they tell two friends...!
If I were going to commit a crime, I wouldn't even whisper it to my pet or my mother.
The Lone Wolves are the smartest of the smart, the ones that never give the FBI, CIA or the homicide detectives a good night's sleep, they operate outside their radar screens. Not unusual, being loners, they have no friends to blab it to, and are distanced from their families as well.
But if you look closely, you may spot them in a crowd, with those enigmatic smiles forever plastered to their faces.
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