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Old 03-14-2014, 01:05 PM
 
99 posts, read 229,036 times
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I am looking to buy a Town Home somewhere in Tucson, around the $200K range. I was wondering what will happen to the realestate market here in Tucson if the A-10 program was shutdown. The news reports said that if that happens, Tucson will lose thousands of jobs at DMAFB, and thousands of people will leave Tucson.
Just wondering !

Also, a comment about HOA cost. There are some TownHomes near Sunrise and Sabino Canyon road that charge $275 per month for HOA. Just a couple of miles down the road at Cloud and Sabino Canyon road they charge about half that. Seems that if you are anywhere near Sunrise or Ina road, you have to pay twice what most other places charge. Is water and trash really that much more expensive as you get closer to the Foothills ?
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:21 PM
 
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Some places that charge more also cover painting the exterior. If you see all the townhomes one color then it includes painting. Also larger grounds with large common space drives up the cost as does any place where they have grass. Some places that are gated may also have some security. I think $150-$210 is pretty normal.

If DM loses the A-10 it wont help things but I doubt if you will see prices drop that much. Right now is a good time to buy.
Heres one that has a good walk score thats pretty convenient near Tanque Verde.

7275 E Camino Bacelar, Tucson, AZ 85715 | Listing Information | Long Realty
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Old 03-14-2014, 01:36 PM
 
Location: Southern Arizona
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New2Tucson View Post
I am looking to buy a Town Home somewhere in Tucson, around the $200K range. I was wondering what will happen to the realestate market here in Tucson if the A-10 program was shutdown. The news reports said that if that happens, Tucson will lose thousands of jobs at DMAFB, and thousands of people will leave Tucson.
Just wondering !

Also, a comment about HOA cost. There are some TownHomes near Sunrise and Sabino Canyon road that charge $275 per month for HOA. Just a couple of miles down the road at Cloud and Sabino Canyon road they charge about half that. Seems that if you are anywhere near Sunrise or Ina road, you have to pay twice what most other places charge. Is water and trash really that much more expensive as you get closer to the Foothills ?
Interesting question, New2 . . .

No expert here, however, if a large group of the financial support would disappear from an area, any area, it would only make sense that the demand as well as the price of real estate would suffer. The number of individuals affected either directly or indirectly would need to be determined prior to any determination.

As for HOA dues . . . it all depends on what benefits are covered. As an example, my Patio Home's HOA dues cover trash pick-up, water, building insurance and common area including pool maintenance and taxes. At 124 bucks a month I feel the dues are fair.

Bottom line . . . comparing just the HOA dues without knowing the "benefits" is unfair.
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Old 03-16-2014, 03:11 PM
 
Location: Tucson for awhile longer
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Having a pool (or more than one) jacks up the price a lot, too. Not so much maintenance as the insurance that's required. That's the secret to the low HOA fee where I live. No pool, no tennis courts. But for a lot of people who don't have a place for a private pool, the cost is worth it. Also, some townhomes include roof maintenance in the HOA fee. Sometimes if you add up all that's covered, even fees in the 200s are fair.
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Old 03-17-2014, 02:09 AM
 
Location: West of the Catalinas East of the Tortolitas
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My HOA dues are $181/mo but it includes water, trash, recycling, all exterior maintenance (roof, exterior painting), common elements, monthly landscaping company contract, insurance, clubhouse with meeting rooms, fitness center, pool, carports, management company contract, and tons of other small, miscellaneous expenses our complex has to cover from postage to security. We also pay $20 a month of that for the Master Community which includes several other subdivisions besides ours.
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Old 03-17-2014, 11:07 PM
 
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If they mothball the A-10, the F-35 might replace it. One reason they might do that is because Tucson is such a repository of mothballed aircraft, i doubt they will let it moulder. But they could.

There are always rumors, but the real deal will be known when and if base people start getting PCS notifications later this year. Many of the base people are renting. So if you own rental property it's more of a question than if you are selling.

That said, the market had been rising a bit, mostly on the strength of low inventory. Not that there aren't a lot of places that could be sold, but they're held unlisted by hedge funds and other investors, waiting for the market to rise a bit more, they're thinking 2-3 years yet. The low-inventory price rise has flushed some of that inventory out, esp. from lenders who don't want to hold deeds, but new construction is leveling prices right now. I've been getting invitations to new construction frequently. Duh.

Meanwhile, what a lot of investors are doing with those homes is renting them to keep the flow going. So it's more nuanced than usual if the base closes, what would you do if you had a hundred rentals in an unsteady market that suddenly weren't making anything? Mil-specs get out of a lease at any time if they gotta go, so you can't even plan that far ahead.

In one possible scenario, if the base loses a lot of people, investor homes might pop up on the market in a scramble for limited numbers of buyers before other investors do the same. So there could be, in the coming years, some ups and downs as those kinds of actions and reactions take place. Even if there were official pronouncements, there are enough factors that the pricing could be unstable. Aftershocks.

Best thing I can suggest is have financing completely hair-trigger ready so you can pounce if something perfect pops up in a price dip. And don't dote on the pricing for a year or two after you buy, just get the best deal you can and buy roomy shoes so you can cross your toes as well as your fingers. If you are certain Tucson is where you want to be. Because reselling might be an adventure if the market undergoes some unpredictable changes. So flipping is crazy to me right now, but thinking longer-term doesn't sound bad.

As they say in the motion picture racket, No one knows anything.
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:28 PM
 
99 posts, read 229,036 times
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Thank you all for the responses. I appreciate them.

A couple of days after my original post, I noticed that some of the HOA fees on the TownHomes I have been considering buying, looking at, were reduced by as much as $100 a month. I am quite sure it was not because of my post in this forum. Anybody have an idea why this has happened ? I don't know much about living in a HOA community. I think I read somewhere that sometimes a HOA will raise their fees for a while to build up their reserve money.

Thanks Again
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Old 03-23-2014, 07:55 AM
 
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The plan right now is to bring in F-16s to replace the A-10s. This assumes that congress approves the Pentagon's proposed budget.
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Old 03-24-2014, 03:38 PM
 
Location: GoJoe
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so, to recap DMAFB, not all the people lose jobs, many of them get transferred out. it means the local economy loses opportunity to capture revenue from these folks.

and, there are no definitive plans to replace a-10's with anything else, its all speculation at this point. the city folks had meeting recently and they are hoping the pentagon replaces a-10's with another program, but nobody knows at this point.

bottom line is, the city/county needs to stop relying on DMAFB, or at least be able to be in-the-know when cutbacks will happen so they can plan accordingly. having Ron beg & cry on the hill was a day late and $ short. the city needs forward thinkers, not ambulance chasers.

DMAFB has been "iffy" for years.


rental prices are indeed climbing as many of those who cant afford to pay their mortgage now step into rentals.
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Old 03-25-2014, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Colorado - Oh, yeah!
833 posts, read 1,632,143 times
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To focus on the OP's questions and real estate issues only...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Home_Kid View Post
so, to recap DMAFB, not all the people lose jobs, many of them get transferred out. it means the local economy loses opportunity to capture revenue from these folks.
This is especially true with regards to the rental market as many (if not most) military rent because they don't want to be saddled with a home when they get orders to go somewhere else.


Quote:
and, there are no definitive plans to replace a-10's with anything else, its all speculation at this point. the city folks had meeting recently and they are hoping the pentagon replaces a-10's with another program, but nobody knows at this point.
Any replacement is going to be louder which will affect property values at either end of the runway and as far away as Rita Ranch and Vail.

Quote:
bottom line is, the city/county needs to stop relying on DMAFB, or at least be able to be in-the-know when cutbacks will happen so they can plan accordingly. having Ron beg & cry on the hill was a day late and $ short. the city needs forward thinkers, not ambulance chasers.
Every city has a few industries it relies on; Tucson is no exception, but I think the degree to which we rely on military/government funds may be out of line. I don't think you can fault Tucson for taking advantage of what DM has to offer, but you certainly can blame Tucson for not reaching beyond that.

Quote:
DMAFB has been "iffy" for years.
I don't see DM going away completely, the boneyard alone makes it unique, but it certainly could be scaled back considerably in the future.

Quote:
rental prices are indeed climbing as many of those who cant afford to pay their mortgage now step into rentals.
I haven't been keeping up with rental prices, but I know I am finally able to sell my home without taking a big loss. Given my worries about the future of Tucson and the possibility of losing the A-10s I am more than happy to sell it now for a little less instead of waiting another year or two and hoping to get another 5-7%.

I do wonder what will happen to all of the investors if the rental market suddenly goes away. Will they try to sell off and kill the market for purchases as well or will they ride it out for a few years. Personally, I am hoping my place sells soon so I can just sit on the sideline and be nothing more than an observer.
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