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Old 12-12-2019, 08:44 AM
 
311 posts, read 442,599 times
Reputation: 973

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Mid size city, affordable, flies under the real estate radar especially after the 2008 crash......

And then BAM! It's discovered. Prices leap 30% and keep going up with no end in sight, taxes sky rocket for locals and those that were born and raised there who now can't afford to buy a house there.

Boise Id is in an expansion crisis right now with one of the new mayor candidates even going so far as to charge a massive tax on anyone who recently moves there...

This really started about 8 years ago, I know because my wife and I were looking to relocate there. However, the massive increase in house prices over those years has priced us out.


So my question is this...I see the same thing starting to happen in Tucson. House prices are leaping up, and with them, property taxes. Is Tucson the next mid sized city to become....unaffordable?
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Old 12-12-2019, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
7,188 posts, read 10,492,173 times
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I think Tucson is a primed city for that to happen. But I think a few things hold it back.

*Overall poverty rate is high
*Lack of multiple universities/colleges to fuel boom sector
*Huge retirement haven
*Close Proximity to Phoenix (100 miles)
*Close Proximity to Mexico (68 miles)

It is a jewel in the rough though, I'll give it that. I love Tucson and lived there 7 years. I'd move back in the future for sure.

I hope it does not boom, and remains the way it is, honestly. But change is always the constant, so it very well could become another hot spot.
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Old 12-12-2019, 10:29 AM
 
3,414 posts, read 7,666,757 times
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I've lived in both cities. Tucson will not boom like Boise has. Many similarities between the two, I met a lot of ex-Tucson residents up there.

Because Boise is the state capital and it is very isolated (next largest city with over 100,000 residents is SLC, a 6-7 hour drive)it feels like a big city despite only having around 700,000 in it's metro area. Plus Boise is a center of industry in ways that Tucson is not.

Personally I think Arizona will continue to pick up the backroom operations and employees for California companies. In my old neighborhood in Phoenix I personally knew 6-7 telecommuters that worked from home and flew to California once a month for office meetings.

Will Tucson grow? Most definitely, but not boom like other places.
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Old 12-12-2019, 07:20 PM
 
311 posts, read 442,599 times
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....and right on cue I stumble across this article...

Boise is #1 growth city in country....Tucson is #3.

Freaking wow.

I guess this answers my question.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...sts-2019-12-12
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Old 12-12-2019, 08:09 PM
 
2,999 posts, read 1,252,342 times
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This happened in Reno except for property taxes didn’t go up. But rents and real estate unaffordable for locals.
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Old 12-12-2019, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Chemnitz, Germany previous in AZ, CA, AL, NJ,
3,397 posts, read 8,541,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katera View Post
....and right on cue I stumble across this article...

Boise is #1 growth city in country....Tucson is #3.

Freaking wow.

I guess this answers my question.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...sts-2019-12-12
The posted link to an article is not based on current statistics. It is a forecast (ie estimation) of cities that a real estate web site thinks will have a lot of growth next year, in 2020. The article lists the Amazon presence as a factor in generating home sales in Tucson, but I wonder how a distribution center with relatively low paying jobs will do that. They also don't define what "growth" is predicted. Is it growth in the average sales price of homes, growth in the number of new homes constructed, or growth in the total number of existing homes that are sold?

Tucson is not much of a "big business" city. I don't see any big payroll companies that are adding high paying jobs at a fast pace. Somebody really needs to explain more about why housing prices will make a significant upward move next year in a place like Tucson. Maybe this article is just stirring the pot to try and attract home flippers and investors.
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Old 12-12-2019, 08:50 PM
 
1,716 posts, read 931,970 times
Reputation: 1388
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katera View Post
Mid size city, affordable, flies under the real estate radar especially after the 2008 crash......

And then BAM! It's discovered. Prices leap 30% and keep going up with no end in sight, taxes sky rocket for locals and those that were born and raised there who now can't afford to buy a house there.

Boise Id is in an expansion crisis right now with one of the new mayor candidates even going so far as to charge a massive tax on anyone who recently moves there...

This really started about 8 years ago, I know because my wife and I were looking to relocate there. However, the massive increase in house prices over those years has priced us out.


So my question is this...I see the same thing starting to happen in Tucson. House prices are leaping up, and with them, property taxes. Is Tucson the next mid sized city to become....unaffordable?
That Boise mayoral candidate proposal is childish. That said, Tucson benefits from having a Pac 12 school in its city limits, and closer proximity to California and is less isolated given that Phoenix is nearby. Also, Tucson has international trade that Boise doesn't. So it could happen.
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Old 12-12-2019, 08:55 PM
 
1,716 posts, read 931,970 times
Reputation: 1388
Quote:
Originally Posted by recycled View Post
The posted link to an article is not based on current statistics. It is a forecast (ie estimation) of cities that a real estate web site thinks will have a lot of growth next year, in 2020. The article lists the Amazon presence as a factor in generating home sales in Tucson, but I wonder how a distribution center with relatively low paying jobs will do that. They also don't define what "growth" is predicted. Is it growth in the average sales price of homes, growth in the number of new homes constructed, or growth in the total number of existing homes that are sold?

Tucson is not much of a "big business" city. I don't see any big payroll companies that are adding high paying jobs at a fast pace. Somebody really needs to explain more about why housing prices will make a significant upward move next year in a place like Tucson. Maybe this article is just stirring the pot to try and attract home flippers and investors.
That report is not really indicative of economic growth when I see McAllen, Texas, Rochester NY, Allentown PA and few other cities that really are not growth markets. McAllen HISTORICALLY has above average unemployment. NY State as a whole has been losing residents for the last 20 years.
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Old 12-12-2019, 09:34 PM
 
311 posts, read 442,599 times
Reputation: 973
There is no denying the rapid increase in Tucson and surrounding areas home prices in the last 3 years. It's an impressive upward trend. Not unexpected, but still....annoying since we are only a few months away from buying.
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Old 12-13-2019, 02:41 AM
 
20 posts, read 76,141 times
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There's a some other factors that prohibit growth in Tucson.

If you look at the wages, they are quite low in Tucson and probably don't compare to a city like Boise.
There will be a recession eventually, and how will Tucson respond? I don't think it will be like 2007, but cities like Tucson will be affected.

Tucson, although is not a commuters paradise (neither is Phx), but is not as large as a city.
Also, (not that it means much) the infrastructure layout in Tucson is quite cumbersome and somewhat confusing without a cross-town freeway.
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