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Old 07-22-2020, 12:48 AM
 
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While I have not studied this topic extensively, I want to throw out to you guys a thought that crossed my mind after watching a documentary on her disappearance. Does anyone else think her plane may have been sabatoged by her husband (to leak gas)? As I recall, wasn't he having an affair at the time of her departure? If I'm off base in this thought process, I will gladly delete this!
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Old 07-22-2020, 02:42 AM
 
Location: VA, IL, FL, SD, TN, NC, SC
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So just a few tidbits to put things in context, and to me, in a sort of horrifying context.

The first thing to thing about is the enormity of the task itself. Earhart and Noonan were attempting to fly a plane from Lae Airfield and hit a target 2,556 miles away that was only 6,500 ft long and 1,600 ft wide and at its tallest point ten feet 3 inches tall! Think about that for a moment. This amounts to a grain of sand on the beach.

Compounding this was a few circumstances. It seem that low cloud cover likely forced Earhart down to 1000 feet, meaning she could only see a short distance in front of her before the curvature of the earth blocked her vision, that would be about 20 miles maximum. Moreover she was flying into the sun, which would only have been a bit above the horizon, so her vision would be reduced by the glare of the sun off the water and of course the sun's low position in the sky. Moreover, the low clouds would cast dark shadows on the water that would mimic the shape and size of Howland itself, and remember, at its highest point, Howland was on 10ft tall so it would be hard to distinguish from the shadows on the water from the clouds.

In addition Earhart's overall health was suspect, she had been sick, suffering from diarrhea, stress, and fatigue going into the flight (I do not think Noonan's alleged drinking was a factor), She would have have been tired from flying all night long, after 18 hours of flying the eye strain must have been tremendous, especially given she was now flying into the sun. More importantly, as I mentioned in my post above, Earhart would have been looking over her right shoulder with a large portion of her natural range of vision blocked by the wing.

When you take the size and lack of height of the island, the cloud reflections on the surface of the ocean, the position of the sun, eyes strain, and her reduced scope of vision, I don't think it is surprising she missed this tiny speck of an island.

Understand she flew almost the entire trip, up until she was about about one hour from Howland(when she was 200 miles out), thinking that the Itasca would be able to give her a bearing to guide her in, but they could not. She made one more attempt 30 minutes later,, when 100 miles out still likely thinking she would receive a bearing, but only got silence. It was probably at that point panic began to set in. Without getting a bearing they had no way of knowing how to correct their course, realizing even a tiny navigational error early on could have been greatly magnified over the 2,500 miles plus they had flown. They were searching for tiny speck of sand in a great ocean. No one knows what they did once the horror of the situation dawned on them, there were many search options they could select from, but the most likely course of action was to fly a ladder search pattern and that would be consistent with her transmission. The end must have been horrifying for them to contemplate. Earhart was really not an expert pilot in terms of ditching capabilities, and the Electra was far from an ideal plane to ditch in, moreover most people do not believe there was a life raft on board, a concession yielded for weight considerations. It is no wonder one of the radio men reported that Earhart's voice was in near hysterics in her last transmission.

Now having set the stage, I offer this brief video clip. What is is of is of someone taking a helicopter into Howland, flying at 1000 feet, facing into the sun as Earhart was The difference is the video picks up when they are only 18 miles out from Howland and know where it is at, and still cannot see it. Note the clouds reflecting on water and when they finally see Howland how flat and desolate it is. The latter is important because even if Earhart and Noonan had managed to land somewhere else after missing Howland it would likely be very similar to Howland, 100 degrees plus temperature, no water at all, and desolate. I can't imagine in those last 30 minutes to an hour either felt anything but despair. A truly tragic ending.

Here is a video, as you watch it, imagine how it must have been for Earhart and Noonan as they vainly searched the water below for a tiny speck of land in a vast ocean.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9c3yZ0xeHw

Last edited by GhostOfAndrewJackson; 07-22-2020 at 03:06 AM..
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:36 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
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Originally Posted by GhostOfAndrewJackson View Post
So (non-sarcastically), are you then asserting that the transmissions to the Itasca were faked? Since we are dealing with FDR, it would not surprise me.

I like the Japanese theory. However, it seems to me you need to disregard the Itasca transmissions. Are you accounting for that? Which Japanese controlled area are you having them found in and how did they get there? And once again what about the Itasca transmissions? Curious...
I'm coming back to this after a long hiatus, so the details aren't fresh in my mind. But the Japanese theory, IIRC, has them crashing just off an atoll east of Saipan: Jaluit Island, a couple of eyewitnesses interviewed called it. From there, Earhart, Noonan, and the plane were picked up and shipped to Saipan. IIRC, the plane was loaded onto a Japanese aircraft carrier. The two aviators were taken separately. They stopped on Kwajalein Is., on the say to Saipan, where they were transferred to another ship (trying to re-activate my memory banks, here).

As to the transmissions to the Itasca, how far can radio transmissions travel? A woman in New York claims to have heard Earhart's distress call. I don't know enough about the technical aspects of that, to respond.

Last edited by Ruth4Truth; 07-22-2020 at 11:59 AM..
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Old 07-22-2020, 11:57 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
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[youtube]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5kf13KI4oc

Earhart on Saipan.
See first video on this site. War vets talking about their experience on Saipan, seeing her plane, having her briefcase in hand, etc.


Richard Martini is a filmmaker, who interviewed eyewitnesses and adult children of eyewitnesses on several visits to Saipan, and around the US. A few years ago, he had plans to make a feature film out of his research footage, but that project apparently didn't come to fruition. But for awhile, he had a long video including some of his interviews of locals, on youtube.

Last edited by Ruth4Truth; 07-22-2020 at 12:08 PM..
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:47 PM
 
Location: VA, IL, FL, SD, TN, NC, SC
1,417 posts, read 728,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
I'm coming back to this after a long hiatus, so the details aren't fresh in my mind. But the Japanese theory, IIRC, has them crashing just off an atoll east of Saipan: Jaluit Island, a couple of eyewitnesses interviewed called it. From there, Earhart, Noonan, and the plane were picked up and shipped to Saipan. IIRC, the plane was loaded onto a Japanese aircraft carrier. The two aviators were taken separately. They stopped on Kwajalein Is., on the say to Saipan, where they were transferred to another ship (trying to re-activate my memory banks, here).

FYI, I have watched that video several times, and the History channel's Lost Evidence episode once, which covers some of the same material.

As to the transmissions to the Itasca, how far can radio transmissions travel? A woman in New York claims to have heard Earhart's distress call. I don't know enough about the technical aspects of that, to respond.
The reason I mention the radio transmissions is the transmissions are/were noted by radio specialists on the Itasca, they rate them S1 to S5 (s = signal strength/quality). Blind test after blind test has demonstrated that, for a qualitative assessment, there is very little disagreement when assigning values to the signal strengths. In other words radio specialist concur on what is a S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5. And specifically they concur on the difference between a S4 and a S5 signal.

The significance isn't how far a radio signal can travel (as they can skip like crazy under certain conditions) but the actual signal strength itself which deteriorates with distance even in skips.

So here is the issue, a part of why the prevalent view is that they went down north east of Howland island.

01) Earhart's signals grew stronger coming in until the were a S5 (the highest signal strength) within the signal strength there is still variance, i.e. At one point the signal was so strong members of the Itasca thought she had to be one them and stepped outside the cabin expecting to not only hear, but see the plane itself (remember she was among the most famous people in the world at the time, setting a world record so the motivation to see her flying in was very high). A S5 indicates you are in very close proximity.

02) After that, the signal though a S5 was less strong, this indicates she had flown past the Itasca before she began a ladder search pattern (also indicated by the signals(you would expect them to increase in intensity, then decrease as you flew the ladder search pattern))

03 If Earhart flew away to go to somewhere other than Howland the signal strength should have steadily decreased (S5 to S4 to S3 etc), it didn't, is vacillated slightly, as expected in a ladder search pattern

04)-- the following are from the Itasca logs:

at 7:30–7:40 am states:
EARHART ON NW SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HOUR LEFT CANT HR US AT ALL / WE HR HER AND ARE SENDING ON 3105 ES 500 SAME TIME CONSTANTLY[163]

at 7:42 am states:
KHAQQ [Earhart's plane] CLNG ITASCA WE MUST BE ON YOU BUT CANNOT SEE U BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW BEEN UNABLE TO REACH YOU BY RADIO WE ARE FLYING AT A 1000 FEET[164]

So Earhart indicated she was low on fuel, approximately 1/2 an hour left, a few points:

One, her navigator was widely considered the greatest navigator around, confidence in him had to be high

Two, it defies logic if you are lost, which essentially means you don't know where you are, to fly off to somewhere else because you have no idea where you are in order to chart a destination. If Noonan blew it (an we know he did not, based on the radio signals) they would have been lost, so how do you then determine where to go to, and if you did what are the odds you would find it given you had no idea where you were and were about out of fuel.

Three, Earhart's own statement tells you they thought they were on the Itasca (remember Noonan knew his stuff), the signals indicate they were doing a ladder search pattern, which was the correct thing to do.

So all the above is where I run into difficulty with all other theories. It all comes down to the Itasca logs. In order to believe any other theory you need to believe Earhart was:

01) wrong about the amount of fuel she had
02) wrong when she thought she was 200 miles west of Howland
03) wrong when she thought she was 100 miles west of Howland
04) wrong about being near the Itasca
05) was flying a ladder search pattern to the north of Howland for no reason and burning the very fuel she said she was low on before heading to somewhere else when she had no idea where she was in the first place

and all of the above is documented by the radio logs of the professionally trained radio operators on the Itasca.

So that is why I asked about the radio logs. Personally I like the Japanese capture theory and the Buka hypothesis, but in order to subscribe to either theory you have to discredit the Itasca radio logs and all the witnesses on that ship. I cannot do that, so to me crash and sink makes the most sense and is what I would bet on.

Anyways, Earhart, Flight 19, D.B. Cooper, Bigfoot, the 1946 Texarkana murders, and the Anglin brothers escape from Alcatraz are things I have followed for 40 some years.

The one thing that has been a game changer to me is it has increasingly become clear to me that the Government cannot be trusted. It is clear they lied about the Anglin brothers, lost DNA evidence in the D.B Cooper case, and to me that also opens the door to doubts with Earhart, especially given the lawless FDR was President at the time. It even puts the Bolam theory in play, given the docs used to refute the theory come from the government Which is to say I am opened minded on the topics, just with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Cheers.
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:08 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth View Post
That's exactly what they want you to think, my little chickadee.
What would the purpose of deceiving people to believe that, be though? How would they gain or benefit from people believing one thing over the other in regards to where she ended up?


Thats the thing with 'conspiracy theories'...someone has to gain or benefit from lots of people falling for the deception, (with other conspiracy theories, its easy to see who benefits and why, but with this one...I dont see anyone benefiting either way).
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Old 07-23-2020, 05:23 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rstevens62 View Post
What would the purpose of deceiving people to believe that, be though? How would they gain or benefit from people believing one thing over the other in regards to where she ended up?


Thats the thing with 'conspiracy theories'...someone has to gain or benefit from lots of people falling for the deception, (with other conspiracy theories, its easy to see who benefits and why, but with this one...I dont see anyone benefiting either way).
The US was concerned about Japan's activities in the Pacific. They outfitted her plane with a spy camera, in case she few over Japanese territory (some say that was her secret mission--to deliberately fly over Japanese-held islands). They didn't know what the Japanese were up to over there, and wanted to know, as there were rumors Japan was preparing for war, IIRC. They'd already taken over Manchuria a few years before, and initiated war against China mere days after Earhart went down.

Those presenting her capture theory say, the US government didn't want the public to know that Japan had taken her. Especially so, after the war, when the US was rebuilding its relationship with Japan. That's why, when the US regained Saipan and found her plane stored there (much to everyone's surprise), orders were given to burn it; all evidence that she'd been there was to be destroyed. One GI ended up with her briefcase, full of papers of hers, that had been stored in a safe they blew open. But that, too, disappeared. That GI was later interviewed on film about what he saw on Saipan, and how he came to have her briefcase. You might be able to find that interview on youtube. It was done sometime in the early 2000's I think, as part of an investigation into the matter.

Last edited by Ruth4Truth; 07-23-2020 at 05:36 PM..
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Old 07-25-2020, 08:24 AM
 
12,282 posts, read 13,185,829 times
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Originally Posted by aboom View Post
while i have not studied this topic extensively, i want to throw out to you guys a thought that crossed my mind after watching a documentary on her disappearance. Does anyone else think her plane may have been sabatoged by her husband (to leak gas)? As i recall, wasn't he having an affair at the time of her departure? If i'm off base in this thought process, i will gladly delete this!

no
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Old 07-25-2020, 10:27 AM
 
Location: VA, IL, FL, SD, TN, NC, SC
1,417 posts, read 728,109 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aboom View Post
While I have not studied this topic extensively, I want to throw out to you guys a thought that crossed my mind after watching a documentary on her disappearance. Does anyone else think her plane may have been sabatoged by her husband (to leak gas)? As I recall, wasn't he having an affair at the time of her departure? If I'm off base in this thought process, I will gladly delete this!
Nope, it is well known that Earhart and Putnam had an open marriage from the first day of marriage, so no need to hide an affair or get out of the marriage. And the idea of the open marriage was Earhart's.

In a letter written to Putnam given to him on the day of their wedding, Earhart wrote:

"I want you to understand I shall not hold you to any midaevil code of faithfulness to me nor shall I consider myself bound to you similarly."
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Old 07-25-2020, 11:38 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostOfAndrewJackson View Post
The reason I mention the radio transmissions is the transmissions are/were noted by radio specialists on the Itasca, they rate them S1 to S5 (s = signal strength/quality). Blind test after blind test has demonstrated that, for a qualitative assessment, there is very little disagreement when assigning values to the signal strengths. In other words radio specialist concur on what is a S1, S2, S3, S4, and S5. And specifically they concur on the difference between a S4 and a S5 signal.

The significance isn't how far a radio signal can travel (as they can skip like crazy under certain conditions) but the actual signal strength itself which deteriorates with distance even in skips.

So here is the issue, a part of why the prevalent view is that they went down north east of Howland island.

01) Earhart's signals grew stronger coming in until the were a S5 (the highest signal strength) within the signal strength there is still variance, i.e. At one point the signal was so strong members of the Itasca thought she had to be one them and stepped outside the cabin expecting to not only hear, but see the plane itself (remember she was among the most famous people in the world at the time, setting a world record so the motivation to see her flying in was very high). A S5 indicates you are in very close proximity.

02) After that, the signal though a S5 was less strong, this indicates she had flown past the Itasca before she began a ladder search pattern (also indicated by the signals(you would expect them to increase in intensity, then decrease as you flew the ladder search pattern))

03 If Earhart flew away to go to somewhere other than Howland the signal strength should have steadily decreased (S5 to S4 to S3 etc), it didn't, is vacillated slightly, as expected in a ladder search pattern

04)-- the following are from the Itasca logs:

at 7:30–7:40 am states:
EARHART ON NW SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HOUR LEFT CANT HR US AT ALL / WE HR HER AND ARE SENDING ON 3105 ES 500 SAME TIME CONSTANTLY[163]

at 7:42 am states:
KHAQQ [Earhart's plane] CLNG ITASCA WE MUST BE ON YOU BUT CANNOT SEE U BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW BEEN UNABLE TO REACH YOU BY RADIO WE ARE FLYING AT A 1000 FEET[164]

So Earhart indicated she was low on fuel, approximately 1/2 an hour left, a few points:

One, her navigator was widely considered the greatest navigator around, confidence in him had to be high

Two, it defies logic if you are lost, which essentially means you don't know where you are, to fly off to somewhere else because you have no idea where you are in order to chart a destination. If Noonan blew it (an we know he did not, based on the radio signals) they would have been lost, so how do you then determine where to go to, and if you did what are the odds you would find it given you had no idea where you were and were about out of fuel.

Three, Earhart's own statement tells you they thought they were on the Itasca (remember Noonan knew his stuff), the signals indicate they were doing a ladder search pattern, which was the correct thing to do.

So all the above is where I run into difficulty with all other theories. It all comes down to the Itasca logs. In order to believe any other theory you need to believe Earhart was:

01) wrong about the amount of fuel she had
02) wrong when she thought she was 200 miles west of Howland
03) wrong when she thought she was 100 miles west of Howland
04) wrong about being near the Itasca

05) was flying a ladder search pattern to the north of Howland for no reason and burning the very fuel she said she was low on before heading to somewhere else when she had no idea where she was in the first place

and all of the above is documented by the radio logs of the professionally trained radio operators on the Itasca.

So that is why I asked about the radio logs. Personally I like the Japanese capture theory and the Buka hypothesis, but in order to subscribe to either theory you have to discredit the Itasca radio logs and all the witnesses on that ship. I cannot do that, so to me crash and sink makes the most sense and is what I would bet on.

Anyways, Earhart, Flight 19, D.B. Cooper, Bigfoot, the 1946 Texarkana murders, and the Anglin brothers escape from Alcatraz are things I have followed for 40 some years.

The one thing that has been a game changer to me is it has increasingly become clear to me that the Government cannot be trusted. It is clear they lied about the Anglin brothers, lost DNA evidence in the D.B Cooper case, and to me that also opens the door to doubts with Earhart, especially given the lawless FDR was President at the time. It even puts the Bolam theory in play, given the docs used to refute the theory come from the government Which is to say I am opened minded on the topics, just with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Cheers.
Thank you for your contributions to this discussion, and for spending the time to present your detailed info.

There was a video in which a flying expert, I think it was a former airforce guy, looked at all the info on the case and analyzed it in light of his experience. If I find it, I'll post it here; haven't been able to find it today.
But the conclusions he came to were, indeed, that she'd misjudged the amount of fuel she had. Also, that she'd been blown off course, and had missed Howland, and therefore, was, indeed wrong about her location. Some say, she'd taken on extra cargo at her previous stop, which weighed down the plane, causing her to burn more fuel.

Your argument hinges on the fact, that the blown-off-course theory doesn't jibe with the radio logs. Fair enough. Maybe at some point in the future, someone will come along with an explanation for the discrepancy. In the meantime, I'll keep looking for that one video.

Nice exchanging with you.
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