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Old 05-06-2010, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
4,530 posts, read 12,353,435 times
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The parties:

Conservatives (3??), Labour (2??), Liberal Dems (??), SNP (6), DUP (8), SF (5), SDLP (3), Plaid Cymru (3), Alliance (1), Green (1), and a lone independent from Northern Ireland.

650 MPs, 326 for a majority, but if the Sinn Fein members don't sit would a government really only need 323?

If Labour tries to form a coalition government which parties (and in order of likeliness) would be willing to ally with Labour?

The first and necessary partner for Labour are of course the Liberal Democrats, but that probably won't get them to 323 or 326, depending on how you C-D folks can answer my question about the number needed for a working majority. For this discussion I'm counting silent acquiescence to not bring down the government as 'coalition' even though it's not formally the same thing.

I'll take a wild stab that the DUP and Labour won't be forming a coalition.

Of the SNP, SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Alliance, Green, and the independent from Northern Ireland, which parties, and in which order would be most agreeable to forming a coalition with Labour? From most likely to unlikely?

And do the minor parties have any strong feelings about proportional representation? Would any minor party be unwilling to form a coalition with Labour, if Labour accedes to the Liberal Dems demand for proportional representation? Or, are all of the minor parties in favor of proportional representation?

To look at this from the other direction, are there any parties other than the DUP who would do some kind of deal with the Tories? (For this discussion, I'm presuming the Conservatives won't give on proportional representation, and there won't be a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition).

Well, we'll probably know all of the answers to this in 2 to 3 days. But, it's more fun to speculate beforehand.

So, let the speculation begin!!
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Old 05-07-2010, 02:42 AM
 
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IMHO:

a) Lib Dems aligning with either of the two big parties will form a majority party.
b) Nick Clegg has been spouting "change change change" from the get go.
c) If Clegg facilitates Labour continuing to run the country (and I use the term "run the country" very loosely) he will effectively be denying the British people the CHANGE they want and need. The British public have CLEARLY said they want a change in government.
d) I would HATE to see Clegg sell his soul for electoral reform concessions (and crawl into bed with Labour to get it )
e) Electoral reform aside, it is the ECONOMY that is the crucial element at this time. Business leaders have no confidence whatsoever in a Labour government's ability to pull the UK out of the mess it is in.

In summation: I hope the King Maker is listening to the British people and their votes, set aside his own mandate for electoral changes at this point in time, and will align with the Conservatives to get the economy moving again.
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Old 05-07-2010, 03:32 AM
 
Location: England.
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Can you imagine an unelected American president losing an election, but still clinging for dear life onto power?

Just one more reason not to vote in democratic Britain.
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Old 05-07-2010, 03:59 AM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
4,530 posts, read 12,353,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sunshineleith View Post
In summation: I hope the King Maker is listening to the British people and their votes, set aside his own mandate for electoral changes at this point in time, and will align with the Conservatives to get the economy moving again.
I understand what your hope might be, but do you really think the Lib Dems would forgo their first chance in a generation to force the adoption of proportional representation? And would the Conservatives EVER agree to proportional representation? It would be catastrophic for the Tories' long term political interests.

Side note: I'm hearing on the news that one of the electoral reforms is the "equalization of constituencies." What is this? Does this mean that constituencies have wildly varying populations? In the U.S., within states, constituencies can't vary by more than 10% in population, and typically vary only by about 1%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sunshineleith View Post
IMHO:

a) Lib Dems aligning with either of the two big parties will form a majority party.
Yes, but Lab-Lib alone doesn't get to a majority. If it's Lab-Lib plus SDLP because I've now learned from the BBC that SDLP are essentially the Labour Party in Northern Ireland, and the Alliance seat is essentially the Liberal Democrats in Northern Ireland, that only adds 4 seats to the Lab-Lib combination. Some sort of accommodation would then need to be made with SNP, PC, and/or the Greens.

Con-Lib would make a solid majority, but the issues differences between them, even beyond PR, are quite large.
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Old 05-07-2010, 09:51 AM
 
14,249 posts, read 17,866,292 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kettlepot View Post
The parties:

Conservatives (3??), Labour (2??), Liberal Dems (??), SNP (6), DUP (8), SF (5), SDLP (3), Plaid Cymru (3), Alliance (1), Green (1), and a lone independent from Northern Ireland.

650 MPs, 326 for a majority, but if the Sinn Fein members don't sit would a government really only need 323?

If Labour tries to form a coalition government which parties (and in order of likeliness) would be willing to ally with Labour?

The first and necessary partner for Labour are of course the Liberal Democrats, but that probably won't get them to 323 or 326, depending on how you C-D folks can answer my question about the number needed for a working majority. For this discussion I'm counting silent acquiescence to not bring down the government as 'coalition' even though it's not formally the same thing.

I'll take a wild stab that the DUP and Labour won't be forming a coalition.

Of the SNP, SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Alliance, Green, and the independent from Northern Ireland, which parties, and in which order would be most agreeable to forming a coalition with Labour? From most likely to unlikely?

And do the minor parties have any strong feelings about proportional representation? Would any minor party be unwilling to form a coalition with Labour, if Labour accedes to the Liberal Dems demand for proportional representation? Or, are all of the minor parties in favor of proportional representation?

To look at this from the other direction, are there any parties other than the DUP who would do some kind of deal with the Tories? (For this discussion, I'm presuming the Conservatives won't give on proportional representation, and there won't be a Conservative-Lib Dem coalition).

Well, we'll probably know all of the answers to this in 2 to 3 days. But, it's more fun to speculate beforehand.

So, let the speculation begin!!
See bold.

It all hinges on PR. Labour appear more willing to do a deal on PR than do the Tories. Also, Labour are already speaking to the SNP:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/p...nd/8668114.stm

With regard to PR, it really depends on what form the PR will take. PR could very easily be used to marginalise the minor parties including those who are strong regionally like the nationalists but, at a UK level, are still quite small.

On the other hand, PR could give a parliamentary voice to the likes of the BNP and UKIP.

So, as ever, the devil will be in the detail.

Finally, Labour should be able to count on the single Green MP. All she needs is a couple of "green bones" flung her way which will not be too hard even for Brown. Then, she can show her electors how successful she has been and quietly support Labour for the other stuff.
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Old 05-07-2010, 01:06 PM
 
Location: Hillsboro, OR
2,200 posts, read 4,407,960 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hengist View Post
Can you imagine an unelected American president losing an election, but still clinging for dear life onto power?

Just one more reason not to vote in democratic Britain.
That is an unbelievably ignorant position to take.
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Old 05-07-2010, 04:09 PM
 
Location: NC
9,984 posts, read 10,361,384 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hengist View Post
Can you imagine an unelected American president losing an election, but still clinging for dear life onto power?

Just one more reason not to vote in democratic Britain.
Here you go.

United States presidential election, 1876 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not quite an unelected American president, but at that time the Republican party had held power since 1868 and was successful in trying to keep it despite having lost the popular vote, (and some claim election) by a 200,000+ vote margin.
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Old 05-07-2010, 07:00 PM
 
5,719 posts, read 6,426,089 times
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I feel like strategically, it's smarter for Lib Dems to try to go with Labour. If they go with the Conservatives, the Conservatives will just wait a few months and try to win outright, stripping Lib Dems of any power. But if Lib Dems go with Labour, no way in hell will Labour risk another election for a while. So Lib Dems would have more power in a Labour coalition.
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Old 05-07-2010, 08:05 PM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
4,530 posts, read 12,353,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by juppiter View Post
I feel like strategically, it's smarter for Lib Dems to try to go with Labour. If they go with the Conservatives, the Conservatives will just wait a few months and try to win outright, stripping Lib Dems of any power. But if Lib Dems go with Labour, no way in hell will Labour risk another election for a while. So Lib Dems would have more power in a Labour coalition.
Your analysis on the bolded point makes sense to me. However, a Lab-Lib & SDLP, and probably N Ireland Alliance and Green coalition (258+57+3+1+1) would still need the acquiescence of at least 3 other MPs.

SNP would give them 3 to spare, but why were the BBC analysts raising their eyebrows about the difficulty of a Labour-SNP hook up? What is the issue between these two parties? I believe the SNP and Labour are bitter competitors in local Scottish elections? Would this local competition hinder the possibility of an agreement?

Of course all of the above is moot if there is a Conservative - Lib Dem coalition, but I just can't see how they can do a deal on the issues that really matter to the LDs.

And if a Conservative - Lib Dem coalition is nixed, is there any other way for a Conservative - DUP coalition to get the 8 other votes it would need from SNP, PC, the Green or the NI independent Unionist?

For the record the final numbers are:

Conservative: 307
Labour: 258
Liberal Democrats: 57
DUP: 8
SNP: 6
SF: 5
PC: 3
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Green: 1
Other: 1

Last edited by kettlepot; 05-07-2010 at 08:14 PM..
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Old 05-07-2010, 08:50 PM
 
14,249 posts, read 17,866,292 times
Reputation: 13807
Quote:
Originally Posted by kettlepot View Post
Your analysis on the bolded point makes sense to me. However, a Lab-Lib & SDLP, and probably N Ireland Alliance and Green coalition (258+57+3+1+1) would still need the acquiescence of at least 3 other MPs.

SNP would give them 3 to spare, but why were the BBC analysts raising their eyebrows about the difficulty of a Labour-SNP hook up? What is the issue between these two parties? I believe the SNP and Labour are bitter competitors in local Scottish elections? Would this local competition hinder the possibility of an agreement?

Of course all of the above is moot if there is a Conservative - Lib Dem coalition, but I just can't see how they can do a deal on the issues that really matter to the LDs.

And if a Conservative - Lib Dem coalition is nixed, is there any other way for a Conservative - DUP coalition to get the 8 other votes it would need from SNP, PC, the Green or the NI independent Unionist?

For the record the final numbers are:

Conservative: 307
Labour: 258
Liberal Democrats: 57
DUP: 8
SNP: 6
SF: 5
PC: 3
SDLP: 3
Alliance: 1
Green: 1
Other: 1
I think the Nationalists can be wooed by Labour. Salmond is playing hard-to get but if Brown offered him more power for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and/or a referendum on independence then he could probably be bought.

Labour are probably in a better position to build a coalition than the Tories. With the exception of the DUP, the Tories have no other natural allies in Parliament. Their position is not helped by their unwillingness to go for electoral reform. That is a trump card that Brown can play and it is noticeable that senior Labour figures like Mandelson were already talking about it last night.

In addition, Labour can usually count on the SDLP and the Green MP can probably be bought fairly cheaply.

So, lets assume that the Lib-Dems go with Labour, that Brown can buy the Nats and the Green and the arithmetic is as follows:

258+57+9+1+3 = 328

Also, although the theoretical absolute majority is 326, Sinn Fein never show up at Westminster. So that reduces the number of seats needed to 324.

So what happens then. probably another election within 12 months.

Scenario 1: Brown gives the Lib Dems PR. Lib Dems then decide to scupper the government so they can have another election with PR and get the seats they are entitled to.

Scenario 2: Brown offers PR and doesn't deliver. The LIb Dems leave the government and there is another FpTP election.

Scenario 3: The coalition is strong. We get PR, and Brown/Clegg go to the country to strengthen their majority.

Right now, I don't see a lot of good options for the Tories. Probably the best is to let Brown/Clegg form a government and hope that he screws up.

Last edited by Jaggy001; 05-07-2010 at 09:00 PM..
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