Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Maybe it's about time people stop insisting that kids sharing bedrooms is simply not an option. Similarly with having one in the living room.
Maybe it's about time people stop insisting that families have their own bathroom. Whatever was wrong with down the hall? Having kids sleep in the living room? Are you really serious?
Since you're looking for something more concrete, I figured I'd offer up some evidence in Chicago. The biggest piece of evidence that Mill/Y Gen will stay in the city and raise their families is what has already occurred. Professional Xers have already started the process and we can measure it.
We don't have perfect census numbers that tell us that n yuppie households are now raising pre-school or school-aged kids in the city, but we can make some statistical inferences. A pretty good place to start is non-Hispanic white married couples with children. We can look at the stroller brigade (those with kids under 6+none 6-17) and we can also look at the same group with kids between 6-17, all courtesy of the census 2000 v 2010. 2000 is just early enough to avoid all but the very front end of professional Xers raising school-aged kids while 2010 is pretty close to mid-stream.
The neighborhoods in Chicago that are further up the gentrification ladder are located north of the river and south of Montrose more or less (the River North's, Lakeviews, and Lincoln Parks, in addition to their respective "sub neighborhoods" like Gold Coast, Roscoe Village, Boystown, Wrigleyville, North Center, Streeterville, Old Town, etc). From 2000 to 2010, the number of NHW married couples with only young kids increased 42.5%. Those with school aged kids increased 32.6%. Obviously, a lot of Xers stayed. It got very expensive, and many of the younger Xers couldn't afford to stay in the immediate area. They moved to areas like Ravenswood and Lincoln Square a bit futher north (both of which are also popular for young professional families). They also moved west of the river into Bucktown, Wicker Park, East Village, etc.
In that area west of the river, the number of NHW married couples with school aged kids increased only 0.6%. Part of this is that this area further behind in the gentrification process. It's a bit rougher in terms of quality neighborhood schools over there, so people are hesitant. Another reason was because this group was booting out working class families (such as Ukrainians) who had kids of their own, so you don't see the yuppie gain when netted against the white married couple Eastern European losses. What is interesting in that part of the city is that the number of NHW married couples with kids under 6 has increased 160.6% from 2000 to 2010. Not all will stay, but a big crop will, which will substantially change the character of the neighborhood (it already has over there).
How does this relate to Gen Y? There is plenty of evidence that the Yers are even more keen to stay in the city (no generation has been more studied by marketers so early). There is a big difference between saying you'll stay and actually staying when it comes time to find a KG for junior. Some won't but many will. I expect that more will compared to the Xers, in part due to attitude, but primarily because Xers have done a lot of the heavy lifting. Xers like myself came into many of these areas when they were much less desirable to the general population. DIY rehabbing, nightlife, retail emerged. When it came time for kids to go to school, many Xers packed up and moved. Some sent their kids to private schools. Others dug in and went about lobbying for additional magnets and charters. There are more viable education options in these types of areas today than there were in 2000 and crime in these areas is also down substantially. Xers did all of this while swimming upstream demographically as well. In IL, the number of NHW married couples with kids only under 6 declined 18% from 2000 to 2010. For the same group with school aged kids, the decline was 14.5% over the same period. Imagine what those neighborhoods would look like today if those declines were increases.
Chicago isn't every metro in America. It's ahead of many and behind others when it comes to the back to the city movement. I'm in St. Louis now, and see the same pattern here, and STL is not a place that has the regional conditions necessary for huge, quick leaps. Metro population growth is slow. High wage employment is pretty middle of the road by large and medium sized metro standards. There is very little immigration to spur neighborhood change. Crime is higher here than it is in Chicago on an apples-to-apples neighborhood comparison basis. But the changes are still occurring. I'm going through the school thing with our kids now and just about every desirable school appears to have all time high wait lists/lottery participants, depsite the fact there are more desirable schools today in our area than there were 10 years ago. If these changes are occurring here, I've got to believe the same thing is occurring just about everywhere.
Charter schools are the devil's work. Snobby private schools at public school prices.
Charter schools are the devil's work. Snobby private schools at public school prices.
For profit private schools that cut corners are the devils work. One started by parents in a failing school system who sought out educational experts, got the charter through a university, requires nothing more than an app and that you live in an economically diverse area around the school? Not so much. 40% of the kids are on free lunch and they end up testing on par with publics in the wealthiest suburbs in the metro. Obviously that's an awful thing.
For profit private schools that cut corners are the devils work. One started by parents in a failing school system who sought out educational experts, got the charter through a university, requires nothing more than an app and that you live in an economically diverse area around the school? Not so much. 40% of the kids are on free lunch and they end up testing on par with publics in the wealthiest suburbs in the metro. Obviously that's an awful thing.
I grew up in a small suburb in the Duluth, Minnesota area largely consisting of large lots (often 10+ acres on the west side), graduated from high school there in 2005, and do you know where most of my classmates live now? In the 'burbs of the Cities (local colloquial for the Twin Cities). They're now marrying and forming families, and many of them have no interest in the "trendy and hip" neighborhoods of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper.
I'm well aware of those studies. In fact, I've cited them in the past on these boards. Many charters operating on a for profit model are atrocious. Many Chicago charters are very guilty of these things. I'm not in Chicago anymore. I'm in St. Louis. Some of the same issues apply here, but it's a different story. If my kids go the charter route, they will go to a school in which the charter is sponsored by a university, who audits the educational and administrative functions of the school. I don't want a school that pads its stats or counsels people out. I want a school committed to the education of its current students. Luckily there are several charters here that are on the up and up and tied into higher ed institutions rather than a home office corporation. A Montessori, a more traditional school, a math/science focused school, and three different language immersion schools (Spanish, French, and Chinese) are all within 4 miles of my house. One is actually sponsored by St. Louis public schools. STL public lost its accreditation at one point.
I'm with you when it comes to a segment of charters. Those who pay teachers horribly and offer no protections for its students. Not all are like that. You could say the same about publics. Some don't perform well, but work really hard with the student body they have. Others weed out kids by sending them to the "special school" in the district so they don't contaminate their precious mainstream school test scores. Some just plain don't care. Others are great with the well adjusted and academically driven students to prove it.
Charters here have been instrumental in attracting and retaining middle class families and offering less privileged kids better opportunities. The public school system has overwhelming poverty (90% on free lunch). Outside of about 5 selective publics/magnets, every school is over 80%. He good charters have been good about achieving about a 50-50 mix with racial and cultural diversity. If they weren't there, my kids couldn't get I diverse learning environment and instead of my house being rehabbed and occupied, it would still be what it was 3 years ago: a property abandoned over 10 years ago about 5 years away from collapse/demo.
If you don't think that relaxed arms laws discourage the criminal element, we'll find out soon enough.
If crime soars when the gun control comes down, living in cities is going to be a lot less appealing to those who can afford to leave.
You are banking on some really big ifs. So what will you be saying when these ifs don't happen? I don't see NYC skyrocketing in crime back to they 80s and 90s days.
You are banking on some really big ifs. So what will you be saying when these ifs don't happen? I don't see NYC skyrocketing in crime back to they 80s and 90s days.
The large reductions in crime in the cities is a big factor in making the areas much more attractive to people with jobs, I think we'd agree.
If proactive policing, stop-and-frisk, mandatory incarceration and relaxed firearms laws weren't the cause, what was in your estimation?
Whatever did cause the crime rate to sink is subject to change.
Identifying the reason is key to predicting when crime will go back up to historic levels.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
