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I don't think we are there yet, but if we are severely undercounting then perhaps NYC has already reached some level of heard immunity that has significantly slowed down the R0 when coupled with social distancing/wearing masks?
Location: New Albany, Indiana (Greater Louisville)
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COVID spread is mostly about personal hygiene decisions. I think NYC was heavily affected and people there became far more cautious about spreading germs. In the Sunbelt most people heard of COVID on the news but knew no one sick from it and over time became less cautious. NYC mirrors places like Lombardy, Italy which were hit hard and fast but then saw a decline to nearly zero new cases.
Let's also remember though that New York had devastating numbers before flattening the curve, and if the rest of the country is on trend toward corresponding numbers it is a pretty high bar. Over 32,000 deaths in NY alone. So I think the urban environment still presents plain issues for managing COVID. But proper leadership to direct people to take responsibility is of course how the head rules over common--now literally toxic--impulses.
All places were always going to have a (proportionately sized) spike - that was never off the table. No one should be surprised - the virus didn't arrive everywhere at the same time.
The normal course of it is to spike then subside. NY is subsiding. What's the mystery?
Herd immunity in NYC. The lockdown in NYC came a few days _after_ the peak was reached; you couldn't tell at the time because testing was very limited, but you can look at the lag between cases rising and deaths rising in the current spike, apply it to NYC, and see what happened. These other states locked down before the virus got as bad, and as a result delayed the epidemic. They couldn't keep the lockdown forever, so when people went out and spread the virus (especially around May 31 - Jul 7), they got their spike.
Exactly right. We forgot too easily that the purpose of the lockdown wasn't to prevent the spread but to slow it down and mitigate the impact on our hospitals. It was always going to be an epidemic. Unfortunately we did not prepare--no PPE stockpiling, dismantling extra beds, REFUSING to develop a consistent message about interpersonal safety measures and even (astonishingly) counterprogramming against them(!)
With their death counts, NYC/NJ/CT are not a success story, let's be clear. They are A story of COVID-19, and one in which footsteps we didn't have to follow. But it seems we are following suit. What a massive failure of leadership.
With their death counts, NYC/NJ/CT are not a success story, let's be clear. They are A story of COVID-19, and one in which footsteps we didn't have to follow. But it seems we are following suit. What a massive failure of leadership.
I'm baffled by the notion that any city or state's experience has either be regarded as either 100% success or 100% failure. I guess I shouldn't be surprised since politics are at play.
The reality is that if people are capable of utilizing even a shred of critical thinking, they can find examples of things a place did right, and things that the same place did wrong. My state (Massachusetts) acted fast to put guidelines in place to keep hospitals from becoming overwhelmed. They worked, and hospitals never became overwhelmed. We also managed to reduce our infection rate to manageable levels and provide easy and affordable (free, in most cases) testing for the vast majority of the residents of the state (I've taken two PCR and one antibody test, had results in 24 hours each time - including last week - and haven't paid a dime) which will help isolate future spikes. However, like New York, Massachusetts mishandled policies and guidelines for assisted living facilities (where 40% of our deaths occurred) and absolutely deserves to be held accountable for that failure.
States like Florida, which has one of the oldest populations in the country, have managed to do a much better job at protecting the at-risk populations in assisted living facilities. While death rates are rising there, they are so far being spared the disproportionate mortality rates that MA, NY and others saw at assisted living facilities. However, Florida (and several other states) have done poorly at ensuring capacity for processing tests which has lead to costly delays in getting results. They've also done poorly when it comes to widespread application and enforcement of practices like social distancing, mask wearing, etc.
Good leadership should be able to look at things that have worked elsewhere and repeat them. They should also be able to look at what has failed elsewhere ensure that they don't make the same mistakes. It seems most are too wrapped up with politics and back patting/finger pointing. It's disgraceful.
Let's also remember though that New York had devastating numbers before flattening the curve, and if the rest of the country is on trend toward corresponding numbers it is a pretty high bar. Over 32,000 deaths in NY alone. So I think the urban environment still presents plain issues for managing COVID. But proper leadership to direct people to take responsibility is of course how the head rules over common--now literally toxic--impulses.
It comes down to education, policy/preparedness, enforcement, leadership, and personal responsibility. The issues are all intertwined, but ultimately leadership and personal responsibility are the bare minimum...and we don't have any. Our leadership downplays the problem and the average American is selfish.
Plenty of high-density cities in poorer countries with less resources are handling this just fine.
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