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Look at the median rent price for urban NYC, Denver, Bay area, cities like that; all down.
I would not lump NYC in the dead zone.
The median rent is down slightly from 'insane' to 2.77% 'less insane' (one year ago) and that is for all of NYC including the 50% of the apartments that are under some kind of rent control laws. These controlled apts always skew the numbers. Median rents have been slightly lower since they hit highs back in Sept, 2019. There are probably many neighborhoods where rents are up slightly. https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-new-york-rent-trends/
Development does not equal rural, it is literally the opposite. It is a misguided boomer that will flee services and medical care.
We have been living in a village of less than 500 for over 3 years now. We are about 30 miles from the nearest medical facility. Bobby and I both have serious medical issues. And, I am NOT a gambler.
I do know that if I were to call 911 that an ambulance would be at our home within 5 minutes. I know that over a third of the people in our village are trained in CPR[ because most of the town at one time or another has been a fire department volunteer]. I have also been advised that in an extreme emergency that the initial steps to stabilize can be done in an ambulance and by the time that ambulance gets to the hospital [30 miles, but no traffic and no speed limit]that the emergency room will be informed and ready to take over.
The EMTs here all know our medical issues and that if it looks to them that if we go in an ambulance, that we will be going into a hospital to die, that they will leave us be to die in our home.
I believe that our tiny village differs little than the majority of rural towns. And so, I respectfully disagree.
I never could understand why many rural/small town people are so eager to see cities/civilization fail. If all those "city slickers" get fed up and move out then what was once pristine land will quickly (d)evolve into a mass of highways, strip malls, office parks and subdivisions. Along with that will come all the social ills and alienation country folk seek to escape. More people taking up farming will crater food prices that much more, draining rural areas of already small incomes.
If cities fall backward people will filter out into suburbs/smaller cities which frankly are urbanizing themselves for both good and bad. We are not going to see a mass return to agrarian lifestyles.
The average young millenials starting out with families would not be able to survive in legit rural areas. Neither would most Americans who are used to city/suburban living for the vast majority of their lives. So far cut off from resources they're so used to in big cities. Stores in nearby towns not being open past 7pm, bad internet, not enough people to chat up with nearby etc. Even with COVID, nobody wants to drive a dozen or more miles just to get to the grocery store. The myth of city people in mass moving out to the secluded countryside with a big lot and farm is just not true, and probably never will be.
People are however moving to smaller cities and the suburbs. I think mid-size, lower profile cities will keep growing. I do think urbanist forced out of big cities however will continue to value historic, pre-war cities/suburbs with urban amenities (like commuter rail access, walkability, downtowns) over sprawling, characterless exurbs.
This right here.
Most city people will go nuts in small town USA. I worked in small towns when I did line-work. 7pm....you’re lucky the gas station is open to get beer and cigarettes.if you're really lucky they have a Saddle Sore honkytonk saloon and if you are somewhere heaven there may be a tittie bar somewhere nearby.
Retirees aren’t moving in podunk town. They may move outside a big city but they will stick close to amenities and medical services.
Some may move to a suburban area or buy a second home in a suburban area. But most city people wil in the city.
I never could understand why many rural/small town people are so eager to see cities/civilization fail. If all those "city slickers" get fed up and move out then what was once pristine land will quickly (d)evolve into a mass of highways, strip malls, office parks and subdivisions. Along with that will come all the social ills and alienation country folk seek to escape. More people taking up farming will crater food prices that much more, draining rural areas of already small incomes.
If cities fall backward people will filter out into suburbs/smaller cities which frankly are urbanizing themselves for both good and bad. We are not going to see a mass return to agrarian lifestyles.
Exactly.
It seems as though they want to have their cake and eat it too.
Rural here, and I see acreage being cut up into minimum lot sizes and new houses being built.
However, it *is* a dozen miles to get to a small grocery store, and 20 to get to one of a major size. Small establishments are generally open to 8/9PM.
Even so, some houses are sold, and then go back up for sale less than a year later. I think a lot of people will fall somewhere mid-way. It's a big change to go from a bustling city to a small town like this. Some people won't be able to handle it. For others, it's a dream come true.
Let's factor in the lowering of the fertility rates.
One of the pluses, if there's an exodus, it the smart ones will stay in, say NYC, and given the fall in RE prices, they'll be able to buy 2 condo's on a particular floor, and join them together.
With Tokyo's 1.2 fertility rate, they're fleeing the rural areas for Tokyo, due to lack of medical care in the rural areas which hardly exists. In France and Spain, a number of rural towns have become ghost towns, due to the low fertility rate. Why drive 50-100 miles to see a Doctor?
I voted "Cheaper Urban Areas," but I think that the suburbs will benefit equally.
Working from home will make a wider range of places acceptable to some people who suddenly feel too crowded in the city, but the percentage of the workforce who can actually do this will remain a minority — probably no more than one-third of the total.
The remainder will need to remain within commuting distance of their worksites. You won't be seeing any of those people pulling up stakes and "heading out for the territory" (i.e., becoming small-town/country folk) unless they can find small towns or more rural places that they can still commute to work from — and want to live in.
If they're urbanites, or even used to suburban living, lack of amenities close at hand will likely sour them on rural/small town living should they make the move.
I happen to live in the core city of a large Northeastern metropolis that happens to be situated not far from the country's premier "superstar city." Real estate agents in its collar counties, especially one that still has lots of open space and lies close enough to that city's hinterlands to cause its residents to consider it, tell me* that people from that city are inquiring about (usually luxury or near-luxury) properties. Such properties here go for a good bit less than their counterparts 90 miles up the road would.
And within this metropolitan real estate market, interest in suburban real estate has risen of late. But interest in urban properties hasn't yet ebbed, either, thanks in part to record low inventories across the market.
Cities aren't going anywhere; they've survived other pandemics and will survive this one. The reason? They have a lock on one quality that many of us don't appreciate or understand but is essential to sparking the creativity and innovation that drives economic growth:
Serendipity.
This is the quality that has you running into people you may know from outside your work or family by chance as you're just going about your business, or encountering a professional colleague when both of you happen to be at the same restaurant, or spying something while walking around that gets you to thinking about something that had been lodged in your brain.
Yes, you can find this in the suburbs, but usually, you have to seek it out or plan it in some way. At which point it ceases to be serendipitous.
And you really can't produce it in a Zoom meetup either.
*They tell me this because I write about real estate.
NYC and other 1st tier cities might not be going anywhere but this will hurt the 3rd/4th tier cities that had massive white flight in 1960s and have not seen people interested in downtown until the millennial generation. The millennials are getting older & naturally moving out to grownup location. This Pandemic will push them out of city faster and the momentum toward "city is cool, suburbs is boring" might die down.
I don't see city people moving too far away from city & wanting lot of land. I wouldn't know what to do with all that land, even traditional suburbs has too much lawn for my liking. But having own back yard & not having to share a building entrance door with other people & having spare room for home office is a big driver. One can find all that in inner city suburbs or small walkable town. some who have family in exurbs might move there to be close to family. but nothing further than that.
I live in a NYC suburbs. Sales of 1m+ homes are up 151% it’s all city buyers. They are either getting a 3k sq ft new construction home on 70x100 lot and 5 min from a 37min train ride. Or the smarter ones are getting 3.5-4k sq ft on an acre with a pool and country club backyard for same price and 10 min longer commute.
Using rent prices as a data point to suggest people are fleeing cities can be misleading.
We're in the midst of the worst downturn since the Great Depression. With tens of millions of folks on the verge of being evicted due to job losses, of course the demand for places to lives will be low, which in effect would lead to a decline in prices.
Last edited by citidata18; 08-07-2020 at 11:50 AM..
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