Welcome, anyone from California?

[Steadykat]

Wages here have never been "good". The predominant Religion in Utah is LDS and it has been so for the entire life of this State.

IMHO: Before doing something as serious as moving yourself, and your family, into any new location it is a good idea to check on things like employment opportunities and wages. One might also question other things like local customs, religions and moral beliefs.

The medium wage for a couple in Washington County (per the local Chamber of Commerce website) was around $38,000.00 (poor) in 2003. The number today is about $43,000.00 (not much better) if I remember correctly. This information is (and has been for years) available to anyone who would like to study it online.

I'm not LDS. My wife and I moved here from SoCal a few years ago. We like it just fine.

Some advice for you home "owners" trying to sale your properties and move out of here. If you bought here in the last couple of years you paid too much for your house. You are going to have to bring some money to the "table" or price the place to sell (below what you paid) to move it in today's "market".


You better act fast, the local housing market is not trending in your, the seller's, favor (oh...you can find this information online too).


Here's some charts showing Utah's numbers:
Utah Home Price Tracker

Check out the price increases (percentages) for Washington County YOY (year over year increase/decrease in prices). Normal appreciation for a house should be about 2-3% per year (rate of inflation).

Qtr Median Price YOY
2007-1 319,000 -2.5
2006-4 333,000 6.7
2006-3 351,000 24
2006-2 350,340 29.7
2006-1 327,322 36
2005-4 309,341 40.7
2005-3 283,313 36.8
2005-2 270,078 30.2
2005-1 240.685 21.2
2004-4 219,847 22.1
2004-3 207,419 19.1
2004-2 198,558 11.7
2004-1 180,089 9.9

[dogmom]

Originally Posted by Steadykat

Wages here have never been "good". The predominant Religion in Utah is LDS and it has been so for the entire life of this State.

IMHO: Before doing something as serious as moving yourself, and your family, into any new location it is a good idea to check on things like employment opportunities and wages. One might also question other things like local customs, religions and moral beliefs.

The medium wage for a couple in Washington County (per the local Chamber of Commerce website) was around $38,000.00 (poor) in 2003. The number today is about $43,000.00 (not much better) if I remember correctly. This information is (and has been for years) available to anyone who would like to study it online.

I'm not LDS. My wife and I moved here from SoCal a few years ago. We like it just fine.

Some advice for you home "owners" trying to sale your properties and move out of here. If you bought here in the last couple of years you paid too much for your house. You are going to have to bring some money to the "table" or price the place to sell (below what you paid) to move it in today's "market".


You better act fast, the local housing market is not trending in your, the seller's, favor (oh...you can find this information online too).


Here's some charts showing Utah's numbers:
Utah Home Price Tracker

Check out the price increases (percentages) for Washington County YOY (year over year increase/decrease in prices). Normal appreciation for a house should be about 2-3% per year (rate of inflation).

Qtr Median Price YOY
2007-1 319,000 -2.5
2006-4 333,000 6.7
2006-3 351,000 24
2006-2 350,340 29.7
2006-1 327,322 36
2005-4 309,341 40.7
2005-3 283,313 36.8
2005-2 270,078 30.2
2005-1 240.685 21.2
2004-4 219,847 22.1
2004-3 207,419 19.1
2004-2 198,558 11.7
2004-1 180,089 9.9

what's with 'owners'?, is there a question as to whether we 'own' our homes, just an odd way of phrasing things I guess...and also it depends on where in Washington County one sits as to the values of the homes...some areas and price ranges are holding fairly steady...on the other hand, if you take less than you want for the home, you can buy at less, also...this is just the normal cycle of real estate...good times, bad times....

Agreed, most anything you want to check is online..when we moved here we retired so wages not an issue for us, but for many it's a problem. Utah is unique unto itself, for the good and the bad...it is what it is...have a good day

[Steadykat]

I used quotations marks around "own" because until one makes the final payment the Bank owns the property. The Local or State Government's own it after the final payment, if you miss a few years worth of Property Tax payments.


I have been watching property and prices here in Washington County since 1992. I bought and sold properties in SoCal and took advantage of the "bubble". I believe that I have a pretty clear view of what it (the bubble) was and what it will become.

You need to re-read the chart. I don't believe that this Country or Washington County has experienced anything close to a "normal cycle" when it comes the housing "bubble" that we have seen occur over the last few years.

Fewer buyers:
Washington County has been designated a "Cat 4" (1-5, 5 being the highest risk) by Countrywide Finance, Chase and others are following suite. The designation qualifies this area as "High-risk". Borrowers (property buyers) here in Washington Co will no longer be able to get loans that are 100% financed. This means that the pool of "eligible buyers", for your home and others, in this County just got smaller.

Less Construction jobs/even less buyers:
In WashingtonCounty, January-August 2007 permits weredown 42 percent from 2005 figures while Iron Countypermits dipped a whopping 51 percent. In addition, falling demand has eroded the average sale price of homes in both these counties according to second quarter 2006 data from the Utah Association of Realtors
Dept. of Workforce Services/ Dec 2007


Inventory is increasing (here's some reasons why):

Allan Carter (director of developer services for Southern Utah Title Co., A St George based firm that tracks real estate trends) blames Utah's wild housing ride on real estate investors, who bought up hundreds (thousands?) of properties with the intention of flipping them. Last summer (05), roughly FORTY (40%) PERCENT of people purchasing properties in the St George market were investors (from other States?), Carter said.
Deseret Morning News Sept. 2006

St George Business Journal Summer 2006:..........over 30% of the homes purchased in Washington County are second residences.

More inventory coming on line:
SGI mortgage broker Scott Gibson said an average of 100 homes in Washington County are given notices of default each month (it takes about 9-10 months for the process to "shake-out" and for the property to be ready for the Bank to then put on the market).

"It doesn't mean they have foreclosed, but the process has begun," Gibson said in an interview with The Spectrum & Daily News last month.

Those two circumstances, along with the "regular" home sellers in the market, led to an increase in supply. In November, there were 27 months' worth of inventory for sale in Washington County............
St George Spectrum/ Jan 08

More of something (houses) and less buyers means that the price of said something goes down. A 27 month supply of houses here this early in the "bust" is not a good omen.

[Aerorick]

"You might want to check things like local customs, religions and moral beliefs" Well I can answer those. Local customs? pretty much like California, Nebraska or Virginia. Religions? 65-80% LDS depending on the local. Moral beliefs? If you take away the state prison population, scam artists and infidels it's the same as everywhere else. No monopoly on that here. Afterall we're taking about a state, not Brazil.

[dogmom]

Originally Posted by Steadykat

I used quotations marks around "own" because until one makes the final payment the Bank owns the property. The Local or State Government's own it after the final payment, if you miss a few years worth of Property Tax payments.


I have been watching property and prices here in Washington County since 1992. I bought and sold properties in SoCal and took advantage of the "bubble". I believe that I have a pretty clear view of what it (the bubble) was and what it will become.

You need to re-read the chart. I don't believe that this Country or Washington County has experienced anything close to a "normal cycle" when it comes the housing "bubble" that we have seen occur over the last few years.

Fewer buyers:
Washington County has been designated a "Cat 4" (1-5, 5 being the highest risk) by Countrywide Finance, Chase and others are following suite. The designation qualifies this area as "High-risk". Borrowers (property buyers) here in Washington Co will no longer be able to get loans that are 100% financed. This means that the pool of "eligible buyers", for your home and others, in this County just got smaller.

Less Construction jobs/even less buyers:
In WashingtonCounty, January-August 2007 permits weredown 42 percent from 2005 figures while Iron Countypermits dipped a whopping 51 percent. In addition, falling demand has eroded the average sale price of homes in both these counties according to second quarter 2006 data from the Utah Association of Realtors
Dept. of Workforce Services/ Dec 2007


Inventory is increasing (here's some reasons why):

Allan Carter (director of developer services for Southern Utah Title Co., A St George based firm that tracks real estate trends) blames Utah's wild housing ride on real estate investors, who bought up hundreds (thousands?) of properties with the intention of flipping them. Last summer (05), roughly FORTY (40%) PERCENT of people purchasing properties in the St George market were investors (from other States?), Carter said.
Deseret Morning News Sept. 2006

St George Business Journal Summer 2006:..........over 30% of the homes purchased in Washington County are second residences.

More inventory coming on line:
SGI mortgage broker Scott Gibson said an average of 100 homes in Washington County are given notices of default each month (it takes about 9-10 months for the process to "shake-out" and for the property to be ready for the Bank to then put on the market).

"It doesn't mean they have foreclosed, but the process has begun," Gibson said in an interview with The Spectrum & Daily News last month.

Those two circumstances, along with the "regular" home sellers in the market, led to an increase in supply. In November, there were 27 months' worth of inventory for sale in Washington County............
St George Spectrum/ Jan 08

More of something (houses) and less buyers means that the price of said something goes down. A 27 month supply of houses here this early in the "bust" is not a good omen.

Gee, guess I should just shoot myself now...I was trying to be positive, but if you are right i will just give up.