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I don't think the Portland/Vancouver area is going to make you happy. What you really want some kind of curated gated community like Hilton Head or Sun City where all the riff-raff have been zoned out of existence.
BTW, there is nothing remotely like 1 in 56 people in Portland being African refugees. I don't know where you find such nonsense. Lots of Asians and Latin-American immigrants. Very few from Africa. But the notion that you would find it problematic suggests that the Northwest is probably not for you.
I don't think the Portland/Vancouver area is going to make you happy. What you really want some kind of curated gated community like Hilton Head or Sun City where all the riff-raff have been zoned out of existence.
BTW, there is nothing remotely like 1 in 56 people in Portland being African refugees. I don't know where you find such nonsense. Lots of Asians and Latin-American immigrants. Very few from Africa. But the notion that you would find it problematic suggests that the Northwest is probably not for you.
Simple math is where I "come up with this non-snese", LOL! That's elaborated on below. Scroll down to the bold text if you want to see the data sources and math.
I want nothing like a currated community, hate the idea of HOAs totally, LOL!
Last thing I want is to be at the mercy of "Condo Commandos"... I can't figure out how they are even legal.
I want a place devoid of interference with a happy enjoyable life and crappy civil planning, LOL! Just want to live in peace and not in dump or wastewater plant, in effect. Which is net result of a lot of city plans I've reviewed.
And nothing sucks more than feeling like you're living in a waste transfer facility and sewage plant. Right up there with trying to figure out how to change lanes in the grocery store when some guy who hasn't taken a bath in a month ends up in front of you... so goal is simple... to avoid things that one would try to dance around... as much as possible... right at the beginning. That some of these things are infrastructure planning... and are still poor planning in the USA in 2019... amazes me... with all the stuff people go whacko about politically these days... and yet the basics are still "crap"... just unfathomable... I guess TV does that to people.
That you suggest the PNW wouldn't be for me... conflicts with the image of the place and what census maps show for the region... until you dig into the nitty gritty.
That said, being from Fla. no issues with latin. Half the ladies in my life have been Japanese. So no issues there either. Oddly enough, a few of them died rather young. That said, if I had better command of asian languages, I'd probably seek out the asian communities.
To be honest, one look at the data graphically for the east coast and deep south... and those areas are *really* bad.
Especially areas near back home like West Palm Beach or Riviera Beach, that have all become "Little Haiti". See that's the thing... if you've never had home invasions, cars broken into or seen an are "tip"... you may not truly understand why one would like to stay out of the path of such things.
It's hard enough to make headway in this life without such things working against you. Even more so if one is as I am... working class. Even with tons of money some of these things are hard to avoid. And predictably where they are, there is a pricing premium.
Have either made the mistake of building in the wrong place, or having to go where the work was in the past. Has taken 20-30 years to get back to even with where I was in 1993... don't want to go down that road again. Adjusted for inflation... I'm still behind where I was in 1993.
The numbers numbers are a range taken from many PNW cities. I've done this calculation for 45+ cities.
Then relate % to the "odds"... 1% would be 1 in 100, 2% would be 1 in 50, etc. I.e divide 100 by %.
Portland is closer to 1 in 200.
Refugees : 3366
Total Pop : 647,805
3366 / 647,805 * 100 = 0.52% ... approx half a percent or about 1 in 200.
1 in 56 Boise. It's the highest on my list. Which surprised me, honestly. Thought surely Phoenix was going to take it.
Refugees : 3696
Total Pop : 205,671
3696 / 205,671 * 100 = 1.78% ... that's almost 2%... so slightly over 1 in 50...
Vancouver side is much smaller number... smaller... But it's connected to Portland, so it's at your door step or in your face if you go over there for any reason.
Refugees : 19
Total Pop : 161,781
19 / 161,291 * 100 = 0.012% ... approximately 100 / 0.012 = 1 in 8333.
So assuming "Portland stays in Portland"... you wouldn't see it... but if it comes across the bridge or you go over there... you would. (Las Vegas was like that... the bad guys were one %1.50 bus ticket from a ride over to rob you... had it happen... total loss was near $30K.)
Haven't looked at Seattle yet. Just the census maps show me that unless you are over Microsoft way or across the water on Bainbridge Island... it's a non-starter.
You can do the math on other locations now that you know where the data is coming from.
Assuming no math errors on my part... (always possible)... the range in major PNW metro areas looks to be in the 1 in 56 to 1 in 200 range for anywhere that has access to lots of shopping, malls, services, hospitals, etc.
The ideal situation would be a mountain top in SoCal with an ocean view on a large enough lot to grow fruit and not trees, palms, etc. (Just a dreaming here.)
But... the one lot I really loved in Top-of-World in Laguna... now has a $5 million home on it. Was empty until recently... but those lots are so small it'd take 5 or 10 of them, LOL! Ain't happening in this lifetime. (Bigger LOL!)
It's a nice dream though. Some people do get to live it. That's the real grind about it. One can drive around some areas of SoCal and see millions of people that don't have to look elsewhere... so somehow... I must be really dumb that I'm not on and have to look elsewhere. I missed the boat somewhere. Most likely not knowing the upper education game... went to state schools and worked through it, rather than knowing the edge Ivy League confers. But just a guess. To old now to go back and start over.
So coming back to reality, it's a question of what compromises I have to accept given my lack of wealth.
Unfortunately there are so many things I want to avoid, I'm looking for a needle in a haystack. Heck, it may not exist.
That said, the point of asking folks about these things is to avoid stepping into the same bear trap I mistakenly stepped in 25 years ago, when as much data was not easily available.
Hopefully, as more folks recognize the data for what it means... things like locations of landfills etc. will be better planned... but that doesn't do any good in the present moment, where the failings of the past are still with us.
It seems you had a bad experience in your first home purchase in FL. That sounds like a real bummer. So to avoid that you're looking at all these numbers of refugees. Unfortunately, we have way more criminals throughout the US than merely refugees. You could move to poor town US of A and get far worse crime than you've ever experienced. And that from WASP Americans. You've managed to project your experience with refugees (assuming they stole your stuff) upon every other city in the US.
Growing up in SoCal LA County, we had our fair share of refugees, illegal aliens as well folks from all over the world. However, crime was very localized and mostly gang related (bloods & crips). Asian and Mexican gangs were big as well. Still, there were and still are distinct territories and associated levels of safety from crime. Living 'across the tracks' wasn't really an issue within a reasonable distance or buffer. For example, some of the wealthiest, most beautiful areas with low crime exist within easy driving distance to these gang infested, high crime areas. Rancho Palos Verdes and Manhattan Beach are close to Compton.
Worrying about crime from refugees in Portland (0.52% of the population) across the river from Vancouver is really a far stretch of the imagination and break from reality of the area. Same is true for living in Rolling Hills Estates and worrying about being in LA County. If you make up such sweeping generalizations in your mind its like a phobia limiting the majority of the US from your search. When in reality there's nothing even there - like the Wizard of Oz with an old man behind the curtain.
Instead, I suggest looking at crime maps with real crime statistics and then give yourself a reasonable buffer from those areas. Refugees will not take over every decent city in the US. And not all refugees are criminals. There's lot of other criminals from every background including US citizens. So by focusing on them you could in fact wind up in another bad situation not considering true threats. In fact, looking at FBI statistics on crime and refugee influence, the cities with more refugees have actually decreased in crime. Compare your fears with the facts from these high refugee cities:
It seems you had a bad experience in your first home purchase in FL. That sounds like a real bummer. So to avoid that you're looking at all these numbers of refugees. Unfortunately, we have way more criminals throughout the US than merely refugees. You could move to poor town US of A and get far worse crime than you've ever experienced. And that from WASP Americans. You've managed to project your experience with refugees (assuming they stole your stuff) upon every other city in the US.
Growing up in SoCal LA County, we had our fair share of refugees, illegal aliens as well folks from all over the world. However, crime was very localized and mostly gang related (bloods & crips). Asian and Mexican gangs were big as well. Still, there were and still are distinct territories and associated levels of safety from crime. Living 'across the tracks' wasn't really an issue within a reasonable distance or buffer. For example, some of the wealthiest, most beautiful areas with low crime exist within easy driving distance to these gang infested, high crime areas. Rancho Palos Verdes and Manhattan Beach are close to Compton.
Worrying about crime from refugees in Portland (0.52% of the population) across the river from Vancouver is really a far stretch of the imagination and break from reality of the area. Same is true for living in Rolling Hills Estates and worrying about being in LA County. If you make up such sweeping generalizations in your mind its like a phobia limiting the majority of the US from your search. When in reality there's nothing even there - like the Wizard of Oz with an old man behind the curtain.
Instead, I suggest looking at crime maps with real crime statistics and then give yourself a reasonable buffer from those areas. Refugees will not take over every decent city in the US. And not all refugees are criminals. There's lot of other criminals from every background including US citizens. So by focusing on them you could in fact wind up in another bad situation not considering true threats. In fact, looking at FBI statistics on crime and refugee influence, the cities with more refugees have actually decreased in crime. Compare your fears with the facts from these high refugee cities:
Refugees are just one issue, the one I'm researching at the moment. While researching other points I tripped over it... had to add an additional column to my data sheets, regrettably.
Trust me, the list is very long. This is but one thing in dozens.
FWIW you mention upscale areas close to Compton... wouldn't live there either... lived in a gated community in Vegas... bad guys just took a $1.50 bus ride to wherever they wanted... stole my car and motorcycle both.
Personally I'd want at least 20 miles or so of buffer.
It's clearly one of the reasons South Orange County is so pricey. Anything "bad" is 20, 30, 40 or more miles away.
Compton is, I'd guess 40 miles off... the bad parts of San Diego 60-80 miles.
Works for me... except for the prices.
I'm a working class slob, LOL!
Real crime stats? Look at Table 1 on page 3... gun homicide rates are 9 times the average in the black community.
There's are real reasons folks avoid "the ghetto", including successful blacks.
Go to the last column and look for the number 34.4... black gun homicide rate... 9x the rest.
Deeper analysis of the data shows young, black males own 95% of that... so roughly half the gun homicides in the USA are owned by 3% of the population... but media wants to assign it to crazy whites on SSRIs.
Refugees are just one issue, the one I'm researching at the moment. While researching other points I tripped over it... had to add an additional column to my data sheets, regrettably.
Trust me, the list is very long. This is but one thing in dozens.
FWIW you mention upscale areas close to Compton... wouldn't live there either... lived in a gated community in Vegas... bad guys just took a $1.50 bus ride to wherever they wanted... stole my car and motorcycle both.
Personally I'd want at least 20 miles or so of buffer.
It's clearly one of the reasons South Orange County is so pricey. Anything "bad" is 20, 30, 40 or more miles away.
Compton is, I'd guess 40 miles off... the bad parts of San Diego 60-80 miles.
Works for me... except for the prices.
I'm a working class slob, LOL!
My personal experience growing up in LA country is just the opposite of what you have described. That is why I know its seriously overblown and flawed. We lived ~ 15 miles from Compton along the coast in a very nice, high end area. It was never a problem, really. No locked communities needed. Walked around at night often as a kid and never felt unsafe - ever. I've driven through all black neighborhoods for work at times and never had a problem there either. If you grow up near those areas you learn street smarts and to avoid bad situations. But it's not necessary to live 40+ miles away in South OC to be safe in CA or any other state. That's just silliness and paranoia. You can see that by looking at real crime statistics for those areas which proves it.
I think you've locked yourself into believing you're in the only safe place to live in America right now which simply is not reality. But to each their own. If that is the case, you may as well stay put in SoCal and rent for the remainder of your days. At least you won't be up all night worrying about refugees or blacks coming to get you in your sleep. If you really think that all of that is true (sum of all fears) then that will be your trade off. I think your search has ended based on your ideas. You've basically talked yourself into believing your in the only good place left anywhere. So you may as well stay in OC.
I think OC is seriously overhyped and way overrated. Even when it was less crowded 40+ years ago I was never impressed with it. But that is why prices are too high. Too many people like yourself are stuck there and can't get out for a variety of reasons. So they fight just to make ends meet in an overcrowded, overinflated area. Its sad, really when I drive through and see it now. We've never regretted leaving SoCal and so glad we did. I didn't want raise kids there. Our relatives who grew up in OC are just as glad they left as well. That place is a real concrete jungle and zoo now. I couldn't imagine retiring there. That would be a nightmare. Even though I grew up in SoCal, I would never want to live there again. There are too many other nicer places to live with more wide open spaces, natural beauty nearby and much more affordable.
Derek
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 05-05-2019 at 01:46 AM..
Appreciate your comments, Mtn. Surfer, and I believe you're right on this. Washington is so much better than California for living. So much better. Better - better - better.
And Jon Gruden's gonna lose in OAK again. Watch it and smile. Go Seahawk's!
Go to the last column and look for the number 34.4... black gun homicide rate... 9x the rest.
Deeper analysis of the data shows young, black males own 95% of that... so roughly half the gun homicides in the USA are owned by 3% of the population... but media wants to assign it to crazy whites on SSRIs.
You can number yourself to death with this stuff, but IMO you're injecting your own biases into it to explain away your conclusions. Unless you are directly involving yourself with business dealings "in the ghetto", then the likelihood of yourself being attacked goes down substantially. Furthermore, you yourself would likely not put yourself in a neighborhood you didn't find attractive, and most bad areas are not such.
I've had guns pulled on me three times over the last 20 years, most recently, about 5 weeks ago. All three times, it was by white males. Ironically, I've had an old one, a middle aged one, and now a young one do it to me; all in three different metropolitan areas, once at work inside brick and mortar, once at work in the field, and once at home.
Should I make efforts to insulate myself from white males? Do I now have a real reason to avoid "the suburbs" where many of them live?
None of the cities you are looking in have overwhelming problems with violent crime (the entirety of the NW has major problems with property crime, and IMO that is mostly because people aren't diligent enough about protecting their stuff), and assuredly all of them are improvements over where you are now overall.
Well this thread certainly took a racist and xenophobic turn.
Indeed!
I'm also not convinced the OP's math is relevant. A Portland population of ~650,000 just covers what's in the city limits. The Portland Metro Area is about 2.5 million.
In any case, I've seen no evidence that percentage of 'refugees' is a proxy for anything whatsoever. Some of the most upmarket parts of LA (Brentwood, Westwood, Beverly Hills) have huge numbers of refugees.
'Refugee' wasn't a dirty word until the 45th President was elected.
I'm also not convinced the OP's math is relevant. A Portland population of ~650,000 just covers what's in the city limits. The Portland Metro Area is about 2.5 million.
In any case, I've seen no evidence that percentage of 'refugees' is a proxy for anything whatsoever. Some of the most upmarket parts of LA (Brentwood, Westwood, Beverly Hills) have huge numbers of refugees.
'Refugee' wasn't a dirty word until the 45th President was elected.
We're all foreign refugees as far as the Native American Indians are concerned.
Derek
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