VC growth stalled, cost of housing to blame

[wac_432]

Originally Posted by DKM

You're missing a very important part of data to base your demographic conclusions on. Public kindergarten is not the only choice people have. Somewhere around 30% of school aged kids living in the CVUSD don't attend a CVUSD school. If public school were a more attractive choice, you'd see enrollment way up. Not everyone likes sending their kids to a school where the curriculum is increasingly directed by the state's dominant politics, and with increasing choices they choose other options.

Not saying demographics aren't an issue, they certainly are thanks to a combination of prop 13 and SOAR people have an incentive to stay here for retirement.

This is a good point, and may explain the decade-long 22% drop in TO enrollment. Less likely, but possible, it might explain the stagnation in Ventura/County enrollment. I do not have numbers for private or charter school enrollment. Charter schools would show up on the city level, but the county level data would already include them. I don't think any private school data would be included anywhere.

If anyone can point me to a source where I could find private school enrollment numbers, I could take a shot at rectifying the data.

[DriveNotCommute]

Late to this thread but I felt enough of a connection to want to throw in some anecdotes (not data!).

About the thread opening's first three posts covering SOAR, I have to say the "unintended consequence" of shrinking housing supply was fully intentional by some property owners who wanted a leg up on maintaining their equity value. Not intending to pass judgement here, I think it's a rational individual desire.

About Winston_Smith's post on population maintenance through natural births post #5, I've met some younger people (early 30s) who attended universities away from here (UCs Berkeley, Davis) and should've had plenty of opportunity to work out in norCal where the economy's pretty hot, but still ended up returning to Ventura county where their families are.

To wac_432 and Winston_Smith's tangent into schools as a metric/stand-in for population starting at post #4, I'll also throw my anecdote that many of the low-30s people I work with do not currently have children and choose not to. Their total income isn't the deciding factor but I suspect it played a big role.

About DKM's point about private schools post #10, I'll anecdotally add that most of my older colleagues with children (and I'm sure their total household incomes easily breaks the 6-figure border) send their children to private schools.

More anecdotes for the OP about the state of the local economy, I have noticed many empty shopfronts here and there that have been empty for a while. For example, multiple "for lease" signs for restaurant buildings along Moorpark Rd. and even in that newer plaza off of Ventu Park Rd., which I would not have expected given the convenient location right off of the freeway.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

A friend that is moving to Idaho mentioned on Facebook that "You can't find anyone that doesn't know someone that is moving to Idaho." At first I thought that I only knew this one family. A co-worker also moved to Idaho. I have known others that have left for Arizona, most of my family included in that number. One former co-worker moved to a community 4 or 5 blocks away from my parents home. Then again that was back in 2004. (My parents left in 2003).

Which leads me to another point, we have always had people looking for cheaper greener grass. They look at the cost here, maybe it is too much rent, or the price of their home has increased giving them the ability to move somewhere else with cash in hand (If they sell the home they own here).

This is not a new event. This is not some resent phenomenon.

Since I was a kid growing up in Port Hueneme we always heard people say, if you sell your home and move to somewhere else in the Country, you will never afford to come back. One of my first experiences with this was back in 1970 when an elderly couple sold the home that they had owned since it was built in 1958 and moved back to the mid west somewhere. Within five years they were back. Prices though had increased to the point that they could not even afford Port Hueneme. They ended up moving to the Los Angeles area and living in an apartment.

[alanadoodle]

We’ve had to leave a few times because my husband is military. We never purchased a home. We would like to move back when he retires, just not sure if it’s a good idea financially. I guess the only roadblock is buying a house and the cost associated with it.

[katie45]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

A friend that is moving to Idaho mentioned on Facebook that "You can't find anyone that doesn't know someone that is moving to Idaho." At first I thought that I only knew this one family. A co-worker also moved to Idaho. I have known others that have left for Arizona, most of my family included in that number. One former co-worker moved to a community 4 or 5 blocks away from my parents home. Then again that was back in 2004. (My parents left in 2003).

Which leads me to another point, we have always had people looking for cheaper greener grass. They look at the cost here, maybe it is too much rent, or the price of their home has increased giving them the ability to move somewhere else with cash in hand (If they sell the home they own here).

This is not a new event. This is not some resent phenomenon.

Since I was a kid growing up in Port Hueneme we always heard people say, if you sell your home and move to somewhere else in the Country, you will never afford to come back. One of my first experiences with this was back in 1970 when an elderly couple sold the home that they had owned since it was built in 1958 and moved back to the mid west somewhere. Within five years they were back. Prices though had increased to the point that they could not even afford Port Hueneme. They ended up moving to the Los Angeles area and living in an apartment.

Exactly! California truly was a place where one could afford to buy a home back in the 1970s.

Then the speculators came to the "Gold Coast" and began buying up real estate right and left and it didn't take long for the price of homes to climb, and climb and climb.

Home owners saw the profit being made and joined forces. Before long homes would sell within the first 24 hrs of being listed and then the new owners would turn around within a short period of time, sell and reap a huge profit.

Finally the housing gold rush came to a halt and many who'd purchased at the higher rate found they couldn't sell.

Some in expensive homes couldn't afford the high mortgages and ended up walking into banks/loan companies and just dropping the keys on the counter, walking out and getting into a moving truck and heading out of state (or if lucky, found an area in CA that wasn't over the top yet). Even renting a moving truck placed some on a 6 week wait list.

The 1980s recession didn't help matters.

The rest is history and now CA is left with the result.

[wac_432]

Despite all the lip service toward affordable housing, market forces are simply impossible to overcome and the writing is on the wall.

I've looked at two properties this week which are literally marketed with the buzzwords:
"Deferred Maintence"
"Out-of-area Owner"
"Trustees"
"Below-market-value renters on month-to-month contracts."
"True rental market monthly income of $XXXX"
Basically these are slapped-together 1960's multi-plexes that someone's dead relative has willed to their kids/grandkids. The marketing translates as this:
"You can evict the long-term tenants, do a quick flip renovation (Floors, paint, cabinets, countertops), and charge triple the rent to the yupsters flocking to town."

[chopps]

Economic forecast for the next few years came out and things are not looking strong.


"Over the next few years, Ventura County residents can expect declining population, decreased economic activity and poor housing affordability, according to the California Lutheran University Center for Economic Research and Forecasting."

https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/20...on/2535876001/

Originally Posted by Winston Smith

Another article about Ventura County's housing un-affordability, now hampering economic growth for five-straight years. This is happening at a time of a broader booming U.S. economy. Thoughts on this?

https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/lo...ty/1478913001/

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

A house in my 1963 neighborhood sold for $575,000. Another down the street from me will be coming on the market soon.They will be asking $530,000. That neighbor is motivated to sell after 41 years in the home and wanting to retire to another state. Within three blocks of our home other homes are selling. Not sure if they are leaving the state, or just the city,or just moving to other homes in the area.

I can imagine that the increase in prices is making it tempting to cash out and leave the area. I am the last of my parents kids in the area. I had a brother in Ventura and he has now moved to Oregon. My other two brothers and four sisters moved a long time ago. My wife and I don't plan on moving. As long as the Hospital keeps paying us I don't have a need to go anywhere else. We have teenagers in school and don't want to move while they are in school.

[EmeraldUndeniable]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

A house in my 1963 neighborhood sold for $575,000. Another down the street from me will be coming on the market soon.They will be asking $530,000. That neighbor is motivated to sell after 41 years in the home and wanting to retire to another state. Within three blocks of our home other homes are selling. Not sure if they are leaving the state, or just the city,or just moving to other homes in the area.

I can imagine that the increase in prices is making it tempting to cash out and leave the area. I am the last of my parents kids in the area. I had a brother in Ventura and he has now moved to Oregon. My other two brothers and four sisters moved a long time ago. My wife and I don't plan on moving. As long as the Hospital keeps paying us I don't have a need to go anywhere else. We have teenagers in school and don't want to move while they are in school.

That could have been me. The house on Harding that my parents owned from 1965 to 1970 is almost exactly that price on Zillow etc. They bought it for $20,000 and sold it when we moved back to Indiana. I've never really regretted or wished that they hadn't moved back here for me to grow up here (around relatives, history, traditions, less crime etc) but sometimes I REALLY wish they'd have held onto that house for me.