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Old 06-23-2019, 03:47 PM
 
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Another article about Ventura County's housing un-affordability, now hampering economic growth for five-straight years. This is happening at a time of a broader booming U.S. economy. Thoughts on this?

https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/lo...ty/1478913001/
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Old 06-23-2019, 06:06 PM
 
Location: Idaho
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Have a difficult time believing the fires and the shooting resulted in negative economic growth. Maybe, but I'm not buying it. The cost of housing? The blame for that can be laid at the feet of SOAR. Great idea that was much needed to halt Oxnard's crazy urban sprawl, and I did vote for it, but nobody foresaw the fact that the "Law of Supply and Demand" would cause the cost of housing in Ventura County to soar, (pun intended), as much as it has.
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Old 06-23-2019, 06:50 PM
 
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SOAR evolved into a strange reality in my eyes. When the SOAR laws were introduced and passed, it seems like everyone was on board with the primary goal -- to keep Ventura County from becoming a "San Fernando Valley by the sea."

However, as the years passed, competing interests emerged. There are rural purists who love "country living" who want to keep Ventura County absolutely rural, and large ranchers and farm-owners seeking to protect their business interests. Next there are new-urbanists who propose mixed-use and infill within CURB lines. Beyond that there are suburbanites who envision a sprawl-type Ventura County, but one that would not grow beyond a fixed area and number of single-family dwellings. Each interest scoffs at the other two, and on a policy level, it's been tough to find common ground. My casual observation, anyway.
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Old 06-24-2019, 02:51 PM
 
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https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/lo...ty/1478913001/
Quote:
"We see crazy things like ... even though the population is shrinking, the labor force is shrinking, the economy is shrinking, home prices continue to appreciate 6, 7% a year across the county," he said.
The rich people moving here don't work.
Quote:
Rentals too are "especially unaffordable," in the county, he said.

According to the Census Bureau, median gross rent in the county from 2013-17 was $1,643.
This is pretty insane.
Quote:
In comparison to Ventura County's anemic economy, Fienup said the neighboring San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles has an "incredibly dynamic economy. In fact, over the last five years, it's had a growth rate of about 4½%."

"We think this stems a lot from attitudes and policies related to growth," he said.
Having lived and worked in the SFV for 5 years before living and working now in Ventura for 5 years, holy crap did he pick the wrong place to emulate. The SFV is the armpit of LA, and continues to be so. Yes, there's a couple of pretty malls now, but that place is gross. The greatest tragedy that could happen would be to turn Ventura into the SFV.

Even as a pro-growth, pro-urbanization person, if the SFV is an example of what growth in Ventura would look like, count me OUT!
Quote:
"It is true that we have a singular quality of life" in Ventura County, he said. "This is an incredible place ... to live if you can afford it. But how broadly shared is that quality of life?

"There's work to be done in Ventura County in terms of making the quality of life that we all treasure accessible to as many people as possible," he said.
No... no there isn't. The "Tragedy of the Commons" is a pretty fundamental economic reality, and something Ventura is successfully avoiding. Gentrification is what we're seeing. It has its downsides, it has its upsides. IMO the upsides outweigh the downsides.

The brutal Real-Politik of the situation is that our amazing climate, environment, restrictions on growth, and high COL are bringing in wealth, but not people or (necessarily) jobs. If you'd rather have more people, more jobs, but less wealth, then follow this guy's advice.

Me, I'm pretty happy with the way things are going. I think we could do with some better city leadership, streamlining and removing some of the more spahgetti regulations for in-town businesses, that would be good. Considering the high costs, we need to trim some of the city budgets. We probably need to be realistic about closing and consolidating schools--there are going to be fewer children in the future due to demographic trends, and we have a lot of schools which are on their last legs (low enrollment, abysmal test scores) because engaged parents have already pulled their kids out of these bad schools.
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Old 06-24-2019, 05:10 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
We probably need to be realistic about closing and consolidating schools--there are going to be fewer children in the future due to demographic trends, and we have a lot of schools which are on their last legs (low enrollment, abysmal test scores) because engaged parents have already pulled their kids out of these bad schools.
Hmm, I don't know about this. The analysis I've heard is that part of what offsets the exodus from Ventura County is natural births. Take for instance Oxnard. It's a young city with the median age somewhere in the 30s. Families are here and will stay because jobs in agriculture, the service industry, manufacturing, tourism, and others continue need young people and people who can live on modest incomes. My takeaway from the article was that housing unavailability and un-affordability was partly to blame for hampering business growth. Ventura County's dark underbelly, of course, is that workers and families are doubling- and tripling-up to make it financially. This is causing overcrowding in R1 neighborhoods that were never designed for the density, i.e. south Oxnard and west Ventura.
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Old 06-25-2019, 01:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winston Smith View Post
Hmm, I don't know about this. The analysis I've heard is that part of what offsets the exodus from Ventura County is natural births. Take for instance Oxnard. It's a young city with the median age somewhere in the 30s. Families are here and will stay because jobs in agriculture, the service industry, manufacturing, tourism, and others continue need young people and people who can live on modest incomes. My takeaway from the article was that housing unavailability and un-affordability was partly to blame for hampering business growth. Ventura County's dark underbelly, of course, is that workers and families are doubling- and tripling-up to make it financially. This is causing overcrowding in R1 neighborhoods that were never designed for the density, i.e. south Oxnard and west Ventura.
I did a little digging, to make sure I wasn't overlooking anything, and I still stand by my assertion.

The overall enrollment in Ventura is consistently down since a rapid increase between 1996/2000 timeframe, when enrollment went from 127,400 up to 145,316. Since then, it has declined almost to 1996 numbers, and stands at 135,700 this year. There was a 3% decline during the last housing market bubble. Things held steady through the great recession, and recently there has been a rapid decline of 5% in the last 4 years. All told, that's a county-wide decline of 8%. In that same period, here's how the individual cities have done:

Ventura County: Down 8%
VUSD: Down 9%
Oxnard: Down 4%
Hueneme: Down 5%
Pleasant Valley (Camarillo): Down 5%
Conejo Unified: Down 22%!!

The recent downturn shows all the hallmarks of an accelerating trend, especially since 2014. Though poorer areas with more POC's are declining less than the radical drop in white/collar areas, the entire county is rapidly greying, judging by school enrollment numbers. Natural births are not resisting/keeping up with the economic pressure of being a sought-after destination. If the great recession and housing bubble collapse shows anything, it's that even a radical drop in home prices will--at best--only stabilize the young people population.

My takeaway is this: Rich people generally get whatever they want. Rich people want to live here due to factors we can't (or don't want to) change (climate, natural beauty). Rich people tend to be older with fewer young children. Local planners need to get ahead of this trend and re-align city/county services around our new demographics.
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Old 06-25-2019, 05:01 PM
 
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Admittedly, I don't pay much attention to school enrollment, so can't speak to that. But the overall picture according to the U.S. Census is that Ventura County's population is slowly growing (by around 27,000 between 2010 and 2018), and that its population is young. There are more persons under 18 (22%) than over 65 (15%). Of course, it would be interesting to know the age breakdowns between 18 and 65 to see the trend.
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Old 06-26-2019, 11:45 AM
 
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I looked at Kindergarten enrollment numbers from 1996-today and didn't see the catestrophic downward trend I expected. However, I did see some significant trends.

Since 1995 Enrollment is:
Ventura (example city): -1%
Ventura County: +13%
California: +17%

Since the peak year:
Ventura: -15% from 2001
VC: -4% from 2015
CA: -2% from 2017

Since the minimum year:
Ventura: +6% from 2008
VC: +13% from 1995
CA: +17% from 1995

For the city of Ventura, which I used because it is probably the best example of out-of-control housing costs (I don't think there's a DSFH for sale for under a half-million dollars in the entire city limits), the trend is jagged because of the small sample size. There's a marked downward trend to 2008, then a recovery, followed by a resumption of the slow downward trend in 2015. It seems to track pretty closely to housing prices. Higher prices mean less kids.

For the county, I see a similar, less bumpy trend. During the 1st housing bubble, there's a slow drop in enrollment. During the recession, there's a large increase, and since 2015, a steep downward trend.

For the overall state of California, Kindergarten enrollment is flat until 2008, when it shoots up rapidly until 2017, and it's now been down/flat for the last two years.

It's hard to say what all this means. However, considering that Ventura County's population has increased 21% since 1995, and Ventura city's population has increased 17%, school enrollment is not keeping pace, which would yield and indicate a rapidly aging population.
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Old 06-27-2019, 07:57 AM
 
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Interesting. Thanks for the stats @wac_432. I imagine this will continue to get worse until there is some form of release from the housing cost pressure.



Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I looked at Kindergarten enrollment numbers from 1996-today and didn't see the catestrophic downward trend I expected. However, I did see some significant trends.

Since 1995 Enrollment is:
Ventura (example city): -1%
Ventura County: +13%
California: +17%

Since the peak year:
Ventura: -15% from 2001
VC: -4% from 2015
CA: -2% from 2017

Since the minimum year:
Ventura: +6% from 2008
VC: +13% from 1995
CA: +17% from 1995

For the city of Ventura, which I used because it is probably the best example of out-of-control housing costs (I don't think there's a DSFH for sale for under a half-million dollars in the entire city limits), the trend is jagged because of the small sample size. There's a marked downward trend to 2008, then a recovery, followed by a resumption of the slow downward trend in 2015. It seems to track pretty closely to housing prices. Higher prices mean less kids.

For the county, I see a similar, less bumpy trend. During the 1st housing bubble, there's a slow drop in enrollment. During the recession, there's a large increase, and since 2015, a steep downward trend.

For the overall state of California, Kindergarten enrollment is flat until 2008, when it shoots up rapidly until 2017, and it's now been down/flat for the last two years.

It's hard to say what all this means. However, considering that Ventura County's population has increased 21% since 1995, and Ventura city's population has increased 17%, school enrollment is not keeping pace, which would yield and indicate a rapidly aging population.
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Old 06-27-2019, 01:31 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
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You're missing a very important part of data to base your demographic conclusions on. Public kindergarten is not the only choice people have. Somewhere around 30% of school aged kids living in the CVUSD don't attend a CVUSD school. If public school were a more attractive choice, you'd see enrollment way up. Not everyone likes sending their kids to a school where the curriculum is increasingly directed by the state's dominant politics, and with increasing choices they choose other options.

Not saying demographics aren't an issue, they certainly are thanks to a combination of prop 13 and SOAR people have an incentive to stay here for retirement.
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