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Old 05-11-2020, 02:00 AM
 
2,955 posts, read 2,192,020 times
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I wanted to buy in 2006, but saw the writing on the wall. Waited until 2012 and made a killing instead of losing my shirt.

Buying ANYTHING now is like buying a house or Lehman Brothers stock two days after the financial crisis started.

I would put off any major and most minor purchases that you can and save your pennies for the upcoming fire sales.
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Old 05-11-2020, 10:28 AM
 
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Default Good idea

I would say a minimum of at least one year just to see how things play out in the real estate markets. How long are banks going to defer payments when people can't find new employment? This health crisis is going to have a long tail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I wanted to buy in 2006, but saw the writing on the wall. Waited until 2012 and made a killing instead of losing my shirt.

Buying ANYTHING now is like buying a house or Lehman Brothers stock two days after the financial crisis started.

I would put off any major and most minor purchases that you can and save your pennies for the upcoming fire sales.
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Old 05-12-2020, 02:16 PM
 
Location: CA for now
112 posts, read 108,603 times
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Thank you both for responding. We are pretty certain we will just rent. But MAN I can't even find a rental! We will be there in exactly one month.
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:33 PM
 
Location: SoCal again
20,237 posts, read 18,116,562 times
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I am in the middle of selling my house. Prices are still crazy high, it has not reached the market yet. My house sold within 2 days.

Wait a year. There is no way that x million people became jobless and the market stays that high.

Rents in Camarillo are a little lower than Thousand Oaks. North Oxnard is nice, too (riverpark).
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Old 05-13-2020, 02:23 PM
 
59 posts, read 86,511 times
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Originally Posted by oh-eve View Post
I am in the middle of selling my house. Prices are still crazy high, it has not reached the market yet. My house sold within 2 days.

Wait a year. There is no way that x million people became jobless and the market stays that high.

Rents in Camarillo are a little lower than Thousand Oaks. North Oxnard is nice, too (riverpark).
Depends on the product. The higher end stuff is just sitting there. Some of it goes into contingent status, only to fall out of escrow.

One major factor is financing. Mortgage qualifications are all over the map and changing literally DAILY. Appraisals are the next X factor - appraisers are taking a hard line on comps and selecting stuff that really test valuations.

I don't think banks/fed will make the same mistakes as 2008 with short sales -- expect a large "forbearance/forgiveness" package to keep people in their homes this time around, which will stall a major correction as banks "extend and pretend" while the taxpayer foots the bill.

On the flip side, distressed sellers (think folks who need to move, need cash, or both) will be more aggressive on pricing. Since qualified buyers will be harder to acquire (due to tight financing, unemployment, inability to sell one's own home, whatever), sales in general will be choppy.

So between now and 12-24 months -- a long, slow melt -- one house at a time.
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Old 05-13-2020, 05:13 PM
 
2,955 posts, read 2,192,020 times
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Originally Posted by alanadoodle View Post
Thank you both for responding. We are pretty certain we will just rent. But MAN I can't even find a rental! We will be there in exactly one month.
I see for rent signs everywhere now, compared to 3 months ago. Nobody is using Craigslist or posting online for fear of virus, I guess. Can u drive around or ask a RE agent to do it for you? They are probably willing to do so for a small fee, since nobody is working or doing open houses.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:48 PM
 
Location: CA for now
112 posts, read 108,603 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I see for rent signs everywhere now, compared to 3 months ago. Nobody is using Craigslist or posting online for fear of virus, I guess. Can u drive around or ask a RE agent to do it for you? They are probably willing to do so for a small fee, since nobody is working or doing open houses.

I have an agent and she's sending me what's on the MLS. Apparently the rental market is super competitive. I had no idea (we've lived in military housing for 11 years). So now we need to sell ourselves to prospective landlords because our stellar credit and great income aren't enough.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:45 PM
 
2,955 posts, read 2,192,020 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanadoodle View Post
I have an agent and she's sending me what's on the MLS. Apparently the rental market is super competitive. I had no idea (we've lived in military housing for 11 years). So now we need to sell ourselves to prospective landlords because our stellar credit and great income aren't enough.
There's about a billion real estate agents out here, and maybe 1% of them are worth a hill of beans. I would look for private parties, craigslist, and then visit and pound the pavement yourself, if you can.

I think most LL's are just looking for someone who can prove they will pay the rent, because once you're in there for a month, they can never get you out again. So, while providing all that BS--like 30 paystubs, tax returns from the past century, and photo documentation of the crown jewels of England--feels super annoying and intrusive, it's basically in response to laws that pretend deadbeats are going to be responsible tenants if you just gave them a chance and like infinite months of free rent.

Also, a LOT of the RE market has been vacuumed up by VRBO's during the recent economic expansion. So things are extremely tight and incredibly expensive.

People hate them with a passion, but you could try a rental agency like California Oaks. My last rental was through them and it was an okay experience.

What are you looking for and what's your budget?

There's some huge apartment rentals coming online in the next few months in Ventura and Oxnard. There's one down at the harbor that is leasing now. There's another perched on the cliff over the 101 that is supposed to start leasing this spring. There's also a massive complex that just started renting at Wagon Wheel in Oxnard near the Collection. It's pretty nice, and brand spanking new. Those should take some of the pressure off, along with the likely economic downturn.

If you are just trying to get a foothold in the area, I'd recommend taking the first, cheapest thing you find and living there for a few months--to a year--in order to get the lay of the land and find a better/more suitable rental. I know moving more than once sucks, but that's how you get where you want to be. If you're moving here from out-of-state, the first place you get (sight nearly unseen) is just probably going to suck. That's the way it is.
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