Buy or Rent - Ventura County Edition (Oxnard, Thousand Oaks: real estate, foreclosures)

[alanadoodle]

Hello!

WE have our official move dates in early June back to Ventura County. We prefer to live in Camarillo, but open to Newbury Park/TO and Moorpark.


But we are really on the fence about buying right now or waiting it out. Doesn't seem like prices have dropped any - there's no telling if they will in the next 6 months to a year either. We plan to stay in the area 10 plus years at least.



Haven't found a place to buy or rent, so I figured I would just ask you all - what would you do in this situation?


We are a family of 5 with a dog, if that matters. Husband will work on the Mugu base.

[volosong]

Point Mugu? Camarillo without a doubt. If you want a place with a little cooler weather, then Port Hueneme would be a second choice.

[alanadoodle]

Originally Posted by volosong

Point Mugu? Camarillo without a doubt. If you want a place with a little cooler weather, then Port Hueneme would be a second choice.

I prefer warmer weather. We are really just trying to decide if we should buy a house now, or wait a year. Doesn't seem like it's a buyer's market right now!

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

What ever you choose, the weather is going to be awesome. I prefer anywhere in the Oxnard plain over the other side of the hill. Realize that Camarillo is in the Oxnard plain. Commute times to Point Mugu from Camarillo would be a lot better than Newbury Park or Thousand Oaks. Camarillo would be out of most of the fog that Oxnard and Hueneme get. Also with Camarillo you may not need an Air-conditioner at all or as much as you would in the Thousand Oaks area.

After that it really depends on your budget and the kind of home that you are looking to buy or rent. I am guessing that house rental prices for a single family home would be somewhere between $2,500 on the low end on up to $5,000 on the high end, although the area also has plenty of high end homes if you are so inclined.

Purchase prices would be somewhere in the $500,000 for a 3 bed 2 bath home on the low end and up to the $1,250,000 range. Although, if you are looking for the estate life that number can go way up.

[jaybee13]

Originally Posted by alanadoodle

I prefer warmer weather. We are really just trying to decide if we should buy a house now, or wait a year. Doesn't seem like it's a buyer's market right now!

Wait a year. Things aren't getting better economically in this region and there is new supply coming online.

[wac_432]

Absolutely wait, but plan for it to take at least a year, and probably 2 for housing prices to bottom. We were at the peak of another bubble when COVID-19 hit. Losing a summer worth of tourism is going to crush hundreds of AirBnB businesses, restaurants, retailers, breweries, and a lot of the small industries that operate in the area. Watch for a spike in foreclosures along Hollywood Beach and Pierpont in Ventura where a lot of AirBnB's are located. Many of those businesses are passthrough LLC's with no assets except for a couple of properties that are mortgaged to the hilt. Now that they're not pulling anywhere near enough tourist income to even cover the interest payments, they will fold up shop after just a few months.

It will take a while for the disruption to ripple through the rest of the local economy, so be patient while you wait for your dream property to open up in Camarillo. Go ahead and start hitting open houses and spotting the properties you want, but wait until the market bottoms. Real Estate doesn't turn on a dime like the stock market.

[alanadoodle]

Originally Posted by jaybee13

Wait a year. Things aren't getting better economically in this region and there is new supply coming online.

Thanks. That's what I wanted to hear! I think we *may* have a rental, so I hope that works out.

[alanadoodle]

Originally Posted by wac_432

Absolutely wait, but plan for it to take at least a year, and probably 2 for housing prices to bottom. We were at the peak of another bubble when COVID-19 hit. Losing a summer worth of tourism is going to crush hundreds of AirBnB businesses, restaurants, retailers, breweries, and a lot of the small industries that operate in the area. Watch for a spike in foreclosures along Hollywood Beach and Pierpont in Ventura where a lot of AirBnB's are located. Many of those businesses are passthrough LLC's with no assets except for a couple of properties that are mortgaged to the hilt. Now that they're not pulling anywhere near enough tourist income to even cover the interest payments, they will fold up shop after just a few months.

It will take a while for the disruption to ripple through the rest of the local economy, so be patient while you wait for your dream property to open up in Camarillo. Go ahead and start hitting open houses and spotting the properties you want, but wait until the market bottoms. Real Estate doesn't turn on a dime like the stock market.

That's what I was thinking, but wanted to hear it from some locals since I'm not there yet. I figure when we get back, we can get a better feel for the neighborhoods and really find a place we want to live long term. Thanks for the feedback!

[DKM]

Originally Posted by alanadoodle

I prefer warmer weather. We are really just trying to decide if we should buy a house now, or wait a year. Doesn't seem like it's a buyer's market right now!

Not from around here huh?!

Many people before you rented waiting for prices to fall and left after years of waiting. My suggestion, snag the best deal you can. People are nervous and you can lowball a bit.

Camarillo is wonderful in the hills and the east side. Do pay attention to school boundaries in your house hunt if your kids are attending public. If you're looking for a good K-8, consider living in Dos Vientos in Newbury Park. Good luck finding a reasonably priced pool home as those are now a hot commodity with hoa pools shut down indefinitely.

[alanadoodle]

I am from around there - I grew up in Santa Barbara County and have lived in Ventura County off and on for 12 years total.


We would buy, but there is nothing we like right now. So renting feels like a solid option for this transition period.