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Old 05-12-2020, 08:09 AM
 
59 posts, read 86,584 times
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This health--and economic--crisis will be an interesting test for Ventura County's housing market.

By many measures, we are considered the best county in the country for scenery and weather, but the hesitation has long been a lack of jobs. The two are connected -- our scenery exists largely because of anti-growth measures enshrined into our county and most of our cities.

Will there be an influx of Los Angeles and Orange County residents, finally able to escape their crowded digs for a taste of "old California?" Now that remote working is becoming acceptable, one can live anywhere - so this might be their opportunity...

And will that offset those fleeing VC-or California altogether-as our local economy is in tatters?
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Old 05-13-2020, 02:27 PM
 
59 posts, read 86,584 times
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Cross-posting from the "Buy or Rent" thread as its relevant to this topic....


On whether or not homes are selling quickly...

Quote:
The higher end stuff is just sitting there. Some of it goes into contingent status, only to fall out of escrow.

One major factor is financing. Mortgage qualifications are all over the map and changing literally DAILY. Appraisals are the next X factor - appraisers are taking a hard line on comps and selecting stuff that really test valuations.

I don't think banks/fed will make the same mistakes as 2008 with short sales -- expect a large "forbearance/forgiveness" package to keep people in their homes this time around, which will stall a major correction as banks "extend and pretend" while the taxpayer foots the bill.

On the flip side, distressed sellers (think folks who need to move, need cash, or both) will be more aggressive on pricing. Since qualified buyers will be harder to acquire (due to tight financing, unemployment, inability to sell one's own home, whatever), sales in general will be choppy.

So between now and 12-24 months -- a long, slow melt -- one house at a time.
[mod note] Just a friendly reminder...crossposting the same content to various threads is prohibited by the T.O.S. [/mod note]

Last edited by volosong; 05-13-2020 at 10:49 PM..
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Old 05-13-2020, 05:08 PM
 
2,955 posts, read 2,195,944 times
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I think there will be a catastrophic crash. VRBO's make up a significant portion of our inflated housing market, and they are mostly passthrough LLC's with nothing to lose when they close up shop and walk away fro 4-5 untenable mortgages after a disastrous summer season.

Add to that the utter lack of funds to support those in half-million+ starter homes, and I think we'll see at least a retest of great recession lows. 40% drop in prices at the bottom. Expect the bottom in 18-24 months.

A miracle cure, mutation that nerfs the virus, or just herd immunity in the next 3 months could short-circuit the coming recession and lessen the pain. But I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
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Old 05-13-2020, 05:13 PM
 
59 posts, read 86,584 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wac_432 View Post
I think there will be a catastrophic crash. VRBO's make up a significant portion of our inflated housing market, and they are mostly passthrough LLC's with nothing to lose when they close up shop and walk away fro 4-5 untenable mortgages after a disastrous summer season.

Add to that the utter lack of funds to support those in half-million+ starter homes, and I think we'll see at least a retest of great recession lows. 40% drop in prices at the bottom. Expect the bottom in 18-24 months.

A miracle cure, mutation that nerfs the virus, or just herd immunity in the next 3 months could short-circuit the coming recession and lessen the pain. But I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
The AirBnB angle is interesting. The thing that pushed prices down hard last time around was short sales and foreclosures. If the federal government backstops mortgages for a short term (<12 months) that would prevent short sales from taking place and ultimately distort the market. So there could be some zombie inventory that won't yet hit the market....which may push the bottom out even further.

Last edited by jaybee13; 05-13-2020 at 05:22 PM..
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Old 05-31-2020, 10:22 PM
 
59 posts, read 86,584 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaybee13 View Post
Will there be an influx of Los Angeles and Orange County residents, finally able to escape their crowded digs for a taste of "old California?" Now that remote working is becoming acceptable, one can live anywhere - so this might be their opportunity...
The civil unrest over the past week adds another variable to the Ventura County housing market. I’m hearing anecdotally from OC and LA friends that they are considering making a move here seeking an urban escape. Not sure if this will result in meaningful movement in demand but my gut has shifted from being bearish on local housing prices to anticipating a near-term spike.
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Old 06-01-2020, 12:20 PM
 
2,955 posts, read 2,195,944 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaybee13 View Post
The civil unrest over the past week adds another variable to the Ventura County housing market. I’m hearing anecdotally from OC and LA friends that they are considering making a move here seeking an urban escape. Not sure if this will result in meaningful movement in demand but my gut has shifted from being bearish on local housing prices to anticipating a near-term spike.
Maybe. I think it depends on how long it goes on and how severe it is. Also, what areas are impacted. During the '92 riots, the looting and destruction was more confined to low-income areas. With The Grove being looted and rioters targeting upscale areas of LA, you might be right. Those people have the wherewithal to afford to up and move out of the city. A pandemic and a race war might spark another round of white flight, like the one that created TO/Newbury Park.
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Old 01-30-2021, 04:30 PM
 
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https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...-out-low-rates

Looks like it’s the highest county in terms of increase in prices.
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