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Old 12-20-2020, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Itinerant
8,278 posts, read 6,313,572 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy View Post
Yeah, I'm thinking CDPR ain't long for this world. At least as an independent.

That said CDPR stock is in smoking crack territory even after its collapse over the past few days, the stock is grossly overvalued probably by an order of magnitude, even if CP2077 came out complete, bug free on all target platforms (including Gen9) and gave regular BJ's to the player. With that anyone getting snotty about the share price tanking is clearly still tweaking, CDPR is a pretty small studio, $30 per share it ain't, $20 a share it isn't $5 a share is about where it should be, currently CDPR (a company with one established and one new IP) is valued more than Ubisoft.
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Old 12-20-2020, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
22,076 posts, read 25,465,212 times
Reputation: 19312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
Yeah, I'm thinking CDPR ain't long for this world. At least as an independent.

That said CDPR stock is in smoking crack territory even after its collapse over the past few days, the stock is grossly overvalued probably by an order of magnitude, even if CP2077 came out complete, bug free on all target platforms (including Gen9) and gave regular BJ's to the player. With that anyone getting snotty about the share price tanking is clearly still tweaking, CDPR is a pretty small studio, $30 per share it ain't, $20 a share it isn't $5 a share is about where it should be, currently CDPR (a company with one established and one new IP) is valued more than Ubisoft.
Well, for context CP2077 had about double the pre-orders that AC Valhalla has had sales and the company is about 5-10% the size of Ubisoft. Valuation is future earning potential and it was priced with rapid growth, which was certainly reasonable considering the growth of the company from Witcher, Witcher 2, Witcher 3, and then CP2077.

That said, pretty safe to say whatever CDPR works on next there won't be 8 million pre-orders. Sharp change in directions from Witcher 1, 2, 3 which was a fantastic trajectory to CP2077. Even if there's the desire and means to do what's necessary, which is probably around another 12 months of keeping the full development team focused on CP2077, there's really a question of whether or not the current team can pull it off. That's really only a question someone on the inside can answer. If development was going along slowly but steadily and the corpo suits just froze and said that's it, we release now. Stop working on the project at whatever state your in and get ready for release then given enough time to actually finish the game they could. On the other hand it's just possible that there wasn't any progress being made. Often times that does happen. In that case they'll just rinse their hands of it and then what becomes of CDPR is a good question.
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Old 12-21-2020, 01:30 AM
 
Location: Itinerant
8,278 posts, read 6,313,572 times
Reputation: 6681
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Well, for context CP2077 had about double the pre-orders that AC Valhalla has had sales and the company is about 5-10% the size of Ubisoft. Valuation is future earning potential and it was priced with rapid growth, which was certainly reasonable considering the growth of the company from Witcher, Witcher 2, Witcher 3, and then CP2077.

That said, pretty safe to say whatever CDPR works on next there won't be 8 million pre-orders. Sharp change in directions from Witcher 1, 2, 3 which was a fantastic trajectory to CP2077. Even if there's the desire and means to do what's necessary, which is probably around another 12 months of keeping the full development team focused on CP2077, there's really a question of whether or not the current team can pull it off. That's really only a question someone on the inside can answer. If development was going along slowly but steadily and the corpo suits just froze and said that's it, we release now. Stop working on the project at whatever state your in and get ready for release then given enough time to actually finish the game they could. On the other hand it's just possible that there wasn't any progress being made. Often times that does happen. In that case they'll just rinse their hands of it and then what becomes of CDPR is a good question.
All sounds reasonable until you figure UBI's cash cow franchise is 'Just Dance' that you don't mention, sure AC is a flagship, but not their highest revenue title. UBI generated €750M in the first six months of this year (Slow season), even with an adjustment for delays to Farcry 6 and Rainbow 6 Quarantine.

8M pre-orders is ballpark €560M, so 2/3 UBIs 6 months revenue. Yeah, I'm sticking with my CDPR valuation being crack smoking country. Its a single title company (using Rockstar model) but without Rockstars online component for sustained income. That makes it incredibly exposed and very susceptible to a bad launch, loss of customer loyalty, or failure in company management. Seems like a perfect storm to me.
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Old 12-22-2020, 08:08 AM
 
Location: New York
53 posts, read 21,368 times
Reputation: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suburban_Guy View Post

This game is keep on eating more space. I wonder when it will end.
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Old 12-22-2020, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
22,076 posts, read 25,465,212 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
All sounds reasonable until you figure UBI's cash cow franchise is 'Just Dance' that you don't mention, sure AC is a flagship, but not their highest revenue title. UBI generated €750M in the first six months of this year (Slow season), even with an adjustment for delays to Farcry 6 and Rainbow 6 Quarantine.

8M pre-orders is ballpark €560M, so 2/3 UBIs 6 months revenue. Yeah, I'm sticking with my CDPR valuation being crack smoking country. Its a single title company (using Rockstar model) but without Rockstars online component for sustained income. That makes it incredibly exposed and very susceptible to a bad launch, loss of customer loyalty, or failure in company management. Seems like a perfect storm to me.
Exactly, and that's pre-orders from an vastly smaller studio. Reportedly around 15 million copies in the first week. There's an asterisk there as speculative but compare 8 million pre-orders and reportedly 15 million week one sales to Valhalla with 1.8 million week one sales.

But yes, the stock price is a reflection of future earning potential. In November everyone anticipated that CP2077 would be quite a lot different than how it released in, particular for last gen base model consoles but also for PC and by extension when the current console version comes out. Stock price tanked accordingly. On the flip side, even with the adjustment it's still up 1000 percent from 2016. There may be some lawsuits for any stock they've issued more recently, not sure how much, if any, of that there's been. Definitely not good news but they won't be sued out of existence and with CDP controlling as much of the shares as they do unlikely there's any hostile takeover.

Very happy to see both Play Station and XBox do the right thing and offer refunds. The game should not have been allowed onto either of the stores at all for last gen consoles. That's predominantly on CDP but also Sony and Microsoft. They got greedy and now they get to face the music for it.
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Old 12-22-2020, 02:54 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 3,549,295 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carole2 View Post
This game is keep on eating more space. I wonder when it will end.
It won’t end anytime soon. With the amount of problems this game has, you better get used to it, as you’ll be getting updates for a long time. It’s quite common for developers to keep filing their games years after release, and that’s when most thing are still alright.
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Old 12-24-2020, 01:14 PM
 
29,579 posts, read 22,975,054 times
Reputation: 48344
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gungnir View Post
Yeah, I'm thinking CDPR ain't long for this world. At least as an independent.

That said CDPR stock is in smoking crack territory even after its collapse over the past few days, the stock is grossly overvalued probably by an order of magnitude, even if CP2077 came out complete, bug free on all target platforms (including Gen9) and gave regular BJ's to the player. With that anyone getting snotty about the share price tanking is clearly still tweaking, CDPR is a pretty small studio, $30 per share it ain't, $20 a share it isn't $5 a share is about where it should be, currently CDPR (a company with one established and one new IP) is valued more than Ubisoft.
Cyberpunk 2077 has sold more than 13 million copies, despite launch disaster and refunds


https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1341459372254359556

Quote:
Cyberpunk 2077 has already sold more than 13 million copies since its launch two weeks ago, according to the parent company of developer CD Projekt Red.

The sales milestone, revealed in an investor note from CD Projekt S.A. on Tuesday, is a remarkable one considering it accounts for some digital and physical refunds resulting from the game’s messy launch. That metric is counting sales between the game’s release on December 10th through December 20th, the note says. It’s about half of the 12-month sales forecast analysts projected for the game shortly after launch but before digital storefronts said they would begin accepting refunds, Bloomberg reports.

The financial success of the roleplaying game stands in stark contrast with its public perception as a multifaceted failure, a fact that has only intensified criticism of CD Projekt Red and also raised the possibility of a class action lawsuit. That something can be that successful while also being considered a deeply compromised product is also a stunning indictment of the current video game industry and its marketing and preorder model.
All will be forgiven in due time, especially now since they can start to focus more of their resources on optimizing the base console versions, and then work on doing that for the next gen consoles. No one's going to learn anything from this. If CDPR can further optimize the base console versions, then it justifies what they did which is pretty much what most gaming studios have been doing the past decade in rushing an unfinished/buggy game to release with the expectation that later patches will fix them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Carole2 View Post
This game is keep on eating more space. I wonder when it will end.
My good friend has been playing this game a lot on his higher end PC, and he absolutely loves it. He's always been more of a multiplayer kind of guy, so for him to be so engrossed as a single player says a lot. I think I'll still like this game a lot once I can play a stable version of it.

But so far what strikes me is how low the attention to detail is in this game as compared to games that came out over 10 years ago. We've seen the comparison videos between Cyberpunk 2077 and other games, and it's the little things that say a lot about a game and its design team. To be honest, I'm not the type of gamer that fusses too much over these things. When I'm engrossed in a game, I really don't fixate too much on how NPC's react or water physics. But still, it's embarrassing when your current gen game lags behind games released decades earlier in the small things.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6458AOhkGo


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuw_RK-4Dg8


Here's the latest patch:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32YBczzXztY
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Old 12-24-2020, 01:16 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 3,549,295 times
Reputation: 5031
I’ve yet to notice any major difference with version 1.06. Then again, for the most part, my game has been running very smoothly on my One X.
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Old 12-25-2020, 05:52 PM
 
5,214 posts, read 4,076,349 times
Reputation: 3468
Just read another bull**** story of how "anti-gay" or whatever the game is. When it really isn't, hilariously the author's argument was how cd proj. red assumes that deep voice = male while thin voice = female. My only problem is that these Poles are too tolerant, if it was up to me the game will start with something like "Eastern europe > f#ggots" - let's see how them Old Joe voters whine about that.
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Old 12-26-2020, 12:42 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 3,549,295 times
Reputation: 5031
Quote:
Originally Posted by euro123 View Post
Just read another bull**** story of how "anti-gay" or whatever the game is. When it really isn't, hilariously the author's argument was how cd proj. red assumes that deep voice = male while thin voice = female. My only problem is that these Poles are too tolerant, if it was up to me the game will start with something like "Eastern europe > f#ggots" - let's see how them Old Joe voters whine about that.
Was that the Gamespot review? Yeah, it was considered very controversial even before the game came out.
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