Lynchburg and Virginia Census 2017-2018 Population Estimates (Virginia Beach, Chesapeake: 2015, university)

[dbcook1]

New Census estimates were released yesterday for Counties and Independent Cities. Looks like my little city of Lynchburg, Virginia posted the fourth highest numeric gain of any city in Virginia (including the very urban Arlington County). Virginia is the only state where you can look at city estimates this early on since all cities are independent from counties:

From July 1 2017 - July 1 2018:
1. Arlington: +2,400 to 237,521
2. Chesapeake: +2,307 to 242,634
3. Richmond: +1,815 to 228,783
4. Lynchburg: +1,061 to 82,126
6. Suffolk +910 to 91,185
7. Alexandria: +876 to 160,530
8. Radford: +680 to 18,339
9. Fredericksburg: +628 to 29,144
10. Manassas Park: +621 to 17,307

From July 1 2010 - July 1 2018:
1. Arlington: +28,234
2. Richmond: +24,527
3. Alexandria: +19,790
4. Chesapeake: +19.084
5. Virginia Beach: +11,334
6. Lynchburg: +6,575
7. Suffolk: +6,362
8. Harrisonburg: +5,042
9. Fredericksburg: +4,790
10. Charlottesville: +4,654

Total growth of all 38 Independent Cities and Arlington from 2010 - 2018
2010-2011: +22,521
2011-2012: +31,053
2012-2013: +20,500
2013-2014: +15,295
2014-2015: +14,565
2015-2016: +13,261
2016-2017: +11,793
2017-2018: +11,179 (total is now 2,805,280 or 32.9% of the total population of Virginia)

This is the fourth consecutive year of robust growth for Lynchburg (e.g. near or above 1,000) and the population has grown by 6,575 overall since 2010 (+8.7%). Interestingly, whereas every city in Virginia (and most all in the US) only made up a small percentage of its respective MSA growth, Lynchburg was dramatically the opposite. From 2017-2018, Lynchburg made up 76% of all its MSA growth and since 2010 the city has made up 63% of all its MSA growth. This is remarkable growth for a city proper as a share of the MSA, but not surprising.

With five colleges in the city limits (all of which are growing), low cost of living, more job opportunities, and higher quality of life relative to surrounding counties it is no surprise. There are also lots of millennials moving here or staying in the city after graduating. The downtown area alone has added 842 new residential units both completed and underway since 2012 (with 95% occupancy rates) which is pretty dang amazing for such a small city.

Overall, the growth of Virginia cities has been slowing down every year since 2011 which is a bit sobering. Traveling around Virginia it appears that the only city propers with lots of urban infill and growth citywide going on are Richmond, Arlington, Alexandria, Charlottesville, and Lynchburg. And besides Richmond and Arlington, it is nowhere near what it is in places like Charlotte, Denver, Boise, Fort Collins, Raleigh, or Austin.

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...ies-total.html

[badger74]

When will LYH pass Roanoke??

[dbcook1]

Originally Posted by badger74

When will LYH pass Roanoke??

The latest Weldon Cooper Center projection estimate puts the 2045 population of Roanoke and Lynchburg as follows:

Roanoke: 105,836
Lynchburg: 100,102

This of course makes a lot of assumptions on the course of growth and is a very rough estimate. If we assumed continuous growth at about the same rate as assumed by Weldon Cooper it could be around the year 2058. However, there are so many variables on growth there is no way to know for sure the accuracy of any projection that far off.

https://demographics.coopercenter.or...on-projections

There is no doubt that Lynchburg continues to gain on Roanoke. In 2000 Lynchburg only had 69% of Roanokes population. Today Lynchburg has 83% of Roanokes population. This is largely attributed to the rapid growth of Liberty U over the past 15 years as well as numerous companies moving to or expanding in Lynchburg such as BWXT, Pacific Life, Genworth, Bank of the James, and Framatome.

[SteelCityRising]

So I just noticed that Bedford is exactly 28 miles west of Lynchburg and 28 miles east of Roanoke. Bedford is part of Lynchburg’s MSA though, which means it has a greater commuter connection with Lynchburg than with Roanoke. Do you foresee the 28 miles between Bedford and Lynchburg filling in with sprawl in the coming years?

[dbcook1]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

So I just noticed that Bedford is exactly 28 miles west of Lynchburg and 28 miles east of Roanoke. Bedford is part of Lynchburg’s MSA though, which means it has a greater commuter connection with Lynchburg than with Roanoke. Do you foresee the 28 miles between Bedford and Lynchburg filling in with sprawl in the coming years?

Most definitely and it is already happening. The Forest CDP is the name of the area between the Town of Bedford and Lynchburg City and it is the fastest growing suburb in the Lynchburg area by far. Forest grew from 8,006 in 2000 to an estimated 10,653 in 2017 and continues to grow rapidly. By 2045 it is estimated to add an additional 6,330 people and will fill in most of the remaining rural areas between Lynchburg city and the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) limit about half-way to the Town of Bedford in Goode. The rapid growth of Forest as a bedroom suburb of Lynchburg is what places Bedford County as a whole in the Lynchburg MSA. Other parts of Bedford County outside Forest and within the MPO boundary (about halfway to the Town of Bedford) are projected to add 1,800 people by 2045.

Most areas outside this, with the exception of some Liberty University related growth on Candlers Mountain Road in Campbell County, is very rural and/or depressed economically in nature with stagnant to declining population growth (especially in Amherst and the more rural portions of Appomattox and Campbell Counties).

Interactive projected 2016-2045 growth map of the Forest area:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer...899279784&z=14

[badger74]

Definitely. Only gov action has slowed it a bit.

[ZeusAV]

You're simply not going to see prosperous cities with growth like Denver, Charlotte, Austin, Raleigh etc. with Virginia's strange Independent City system and highly restrictive annexation laws.