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I think I finally know why and it makes sense. I'm currently reading a book about affluent African-Americans in Prince Georges County compared to those in Fairfax. (Blue-Chip Black: Race, Class, and Status in the New Black Middle Class) There's a section of the book that speaks to development and even goes into detail about how years ago, the purpose for National Harbor, the way it is now, was to attract a casino. Go figure. So, even 10 years ago, Peterson wanted a casino, and it looks like he's getting one. But I digress.
The reason why these major affluent retailers aren't coming to the county is density. And to me, that makes sense. In the book, the retailers like Nordstrom's and others were asked why they avoid Prince George's County. They said it's not for lack of income, it is for lack of density. Put simply, as a retailer, how many individuals would you rather stroll into your store at lunch time? Ten? or Fifty? It is strictly numbers. They mentioned Crystal City where there are dense office complexes and towers that can support that sort of foot traffic. Arlington can support it. Rockville, etc. But where in PGC can a community support that high volume foot traffic that would make it worthwhile for a store to locate there? Let's be real, PGC shot itself in it's foot by building too many darn housing communities spread out all over the place. If we want the high end retail, unfortunately it means not only more people, but more affluent people packed into a smaller space. Even Silver Spring is not quite there yet or they would already have those upscale stores. Look at Bethesdsa and Chevy Chase in contrast? They have tons of offices and apartments. Lots of dense urban affluent foot traffic.
Build, and they will come.
Hmm. Sounds like an interesting book. If I remember it, I might pick it up whenever I'm at Barnes & Noble or Books-A-Million.
I don't know, adelphi, there appear to be lots of less-than-dense areas that have more commercial development than PG. I'm thinking about places like Gainesville, Manassas, suburbs of other cities like Pittsburgh, PA (trust me, not an area with dense development). There is at least more variety in these places, not just "high end" shops. Like, a Lord and Taylor, a Cheesecake Factory, different varieties of clothing stores, stuff like that. A cheesecake factory or a PF Changs in PG would definitely be packed, as long as they chose a somewhat central location, like Woodmore Town Center, for example. Something definitely feels afoot to me, but you may be right, I don't know.
I can't believe I'm saying this but you're right. Adelphi's theory doesn't work here. A Cheesecake Factory just opened up at Potomac Mills in Prince William County. Prince William County is basically half the size of PG and is mostly urban sprawl (even though PWC's job market is growing). I also see two Wegmans (and one of them is in a very, very remote suburban location no where near any major businesses) in Prince William County and one in PG? How did it get to PG? Well because they receive huge incentives to do so. This isn't rocket science, it's all about perception. If a business believes that people are less likely to shop in a place because the customers may feel unsafe or because they may be victims of crimes (primarily theft), then the business have to see how it affects their bottom line. Is it worth moving to a place that you have to pay for extra security or have customers scared away? Many business are saying no.
Think about it, what is the ultimate goal of a business? To make money of course, if businesses are saying that PG has the money to support upscale retail, then what is the problem? It's really not a deep as we are making it here.
I can't believe I'm saying this but you're right. Adelphi's theory doesn't work here. A Cheesecake Factory just opened up at Potomac Mills in Prince William County. Prince William County is basically half the size of PG and is mostly urban sprawl (even though PWC's job market is growing). I also see two Wegmans (and one of them is in a very, very remote suburban location no where near any major businesses) in Prince William County and one in PG? How did it get to PG? Well because they receive huge incentives to do so.
Okay, first, the author didn't ask every single retailer. lol Don't shoot the messenger. Second, PWC and Gainesville are far enough away so that retail stores are not to competing with the retail stores of the same chains. For example, take Nordstroms at Crystal City. Tons of offices right? What would be the need for them to build a store in PG where they would get less foot traffic as opposed to them knowing that those same people in PGC can take a metro ride to the store in Crystal City? If they decided to put one in PGC, it would be nearly empty because white people surely wouldn't hop on the train or take a car ride all the way to Bowie or elsewhere to shop at the PGC Nordstroms giving it sufficient foot traffic. Therefore it would be a wasted store. The only way it could work is if you had more offices and residences with the affluence that would prefer the closer Nordstroms in PGC than hopping on metro to go to Crystal City.
As far as the outer suburbs like Gainesville, there are more people willing to stay closer to home that far out without having to drive all the way to DC for a Cheesecake factory. Gainesville is also a lot more heavily populated than say Bowie or Upper Marlboro. They don't have the option of a metro or close proximity to DC where they could get to a Cheesecake factory or a high end retailer. In addition, they are close to Ashburn which is home to AOL, Verizon, and a host of the other IT companies out 66 and Dulles. Look at Downtown Silver Spring and White Flint. They have the density and office presence for a Cheesecake Factory or a Nordstroms, yet they too are without. I think because they are close to Metro where one can go to the Cheesecake Factory in Chevy Chase or travel to Crystal City. I think there has to be such a high demand for those stores that they are compelled to build a store.
And what makes Arundel Mills different is that is is now becoming a tourist destination. So, you would have more people visit that Cheesecake Factory on a consistent basis than if there were no outlet or casino.
National Harbor is a game changer. Yes, because it is a tourist attraction now, a Cheesecake Factory would do very well there. I don't think the Peterson Companies are into big box chains at National Harbor, so a Nordstroms, etc. wouldn't fit with their plans. Most of those high-end brands may end up at Tanger anyway.
PGC is an interesting situation. It is wedged in between the Annapolis area and DC. It has the affluence, yet it doesn't have the density or the office presence to draw retailers that require high foot traffic not only during the evening hours, but during lunch hours as well. PGC just doesn't have that foot traffic except at National Harbor. And its outer communities are still closer than Gainesville or even Ashburn. Bowie even hits up against the high-end stores in Annapolis. Aren't they about the same distance to Annapolis as they are to D.C.? I'm not sure where else they would plop a mall or center with high-end stores with such low density and office presence at this point.
I think PGC is getting there. Just not yet. An office complex like the FBI would go a long way to creating that density where a Cheesecake Factory could enjoy constant foot traffic all day and night with those that can afford to eat there. Perhaps Konterra, which when complete will be compared to Alexandria of Tysons, will have the density and office presence to get high-end big box retailers. And the Cheesecake Factory is not all that expensive.
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This isn't rocket science, it's all about perception. If a business believes that people are less likely to shop in a place because the customers may feel unsafe or because they may be victims of crimes (primarily theft), then the business have to see how it affects their bottom line. Is it worth moving to a place that you have to pay for extra security or have customers scared away? Many business are saying no.
I agree on the crime issue. Yes, business do shy away from areas with higher crime. The book mentioned Landover Mall which was actually pretty high end. I went as a child and could remember Bloomingdales, Garfinckles, and Hechts. But crime slowly killed that mall. So, PGC did have its heyday and squandered the opportunity.
In closing, I think crime, land lack of office and affluent residential density has played a part in keeping the high end retailers away.
Okay, first, the author didn't ask every single retailer. lol Don't shoot the messenger. Second, PWC and Gainesville are far enough away so that retail stores are not to competing with the retail stores of the same chains. For example, take Nordstroms at Crystal City. Tons of offices right? What would be the need for them to build a store in PG where they would get less foot traffic as opposed to them knowing that those same people in PGC can take a metro ride to the store in Crystal City? If they decided to put one in PGC, it would be nearly empty because white people surely wouldn't hop on the train or take a car ride all the way to Bowie or elsewhere to shop at the PGC Nordstroms giving it sufficient foot traffic. Therefore it would be a wasted store. The only way it could work is if you had more offices and residences with the affluence that would prefer the closer Nordstroms in PGC than hopping on metro to go to Crystal City.
Well I assume that because you posted the link, that you were in agreement. I'm sorry.
But couldn't you say the same thing about Sterling? Between Tyson's Corner Mall and Dulles Town Center (Sterling) there is only about 15 miles, yet they both have a Nordstrom and Lord & Taylor. Sterling is growing but it's population does not quite revival Tyson's Corner. Sterling doesn't even have the amount of office spaces to command stores like Lord & Taylor, Nordstrom, PF Changs and the Cheesecake Factory based on what you're stating but yet they have them all. Places like Greenbelt and College Park has just as much foot traffic if not more, and they simply don't seem to have any of those stores or equivalents.
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
As far as the outer suburbs like Gainesville, there are more people willing to stay closer to home that far out without having to drive all the way to DC for a Cheesecake factory. Gainesville is also a lot more heavily populated than say Bowie or Upper Marlboro. They don't have the option of a metro or close proximity to DC where they could get to a Cheesecake factory or a high end retailer. In addition, they are close to Ashburn which is home to AOL, Verizon, and a host of the other IT companies out 66 and Dulles. Look at Downtown Silver Spring and White Flint. They have the density and office presence for a Cheesecake Factory or a Nordstroms, yet they too are without. I think because they are close to Metro where one can go to the Cheesecake Factory in Chevy Chase or travel to Crystal City. I think there has to be such a high demand for those stores that they are compelled to build a store.
I'm assuming you don't know much about Gainesville. It's about a 5th of the size of Bowie population wise. It is an extremely spread out suburb. It has very, very little density. It's spread out very similar to Upper Marlboro but has more shopping.
Also Gainesville doesn't have the Cheesecake Factory. I said it is located at the Potomac Mills, which is in Woodbridge, not Gainesville. Gainesville has the Wegmans.
Gainesville is 30 miles from Ashburn. I don't think it's as close as you are making it.
Also what you're saying doesn't really make sense for Bowie, which is further from the Metro. Crofton just got a Wegmans and a huge shopping center with it, why would Crofton be able to get all of those stores being so close to Annapolis but Bowie couldn't get something similar. Is it really about being close to Annapolis or is it the reputation of the two places (Crofton and Bowie).
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
And what makes Arundel Mills different is that is is now becoming a tourist destination. So, you would have more people visit that Cheesecake Factory on a consistent basis than if there were no outlet or casino.
Agreed.
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
National Harbor is a game changer. Yes, because it is a tourist attraction now, a Cheesecake Factory would do very well there. I don't think the Peterson Companies are into big box chains at National Harbor, so a Nordstroms, etc. wouldn't fit with their plans. Most of those high-end brands may end up at Tanger anyway.
Agreed as well, which is why I suggested that a Cheesecake Factory would not work there. It's definitely not going to work there.
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
PGC is an interesting situation. It is wedged in between the Annapolis area and DC. It has the affluence, yet it doesn't have the density or the office presence to draw retailers that require high foot traffic not only during the evening hours, but during lunch hours as well. PGC just doesn't have that foot traffic except at National Harbor. And its outer communities are still closer than Gainesville or even Ashburn. Bowie even hits up against the high-end stores in Annapolis. Aren't they about the same distance to Annapolis as they are to D.C.? I'm not sure where else they would plop a mall or center with high-end stores with such low density and office presence at this point.
So what about the city of Fairfax? Fairfax is not that far from DC, it doesn't have an extremely dense population that places like Silver Spring and Bethesda have, but Fairfax has a Cheesecake Factory among other upscale restaurants and stores. Fairfax is 21 miles from DC, Bowie is 20 miles. Is there really much of a difference in distance? Fairfax is also half the size in population of Bowie too. There are also two Cheesecake Factories between Fairfax and DC and there are none between Bowie and DC.
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
I think PGC is getting there. Just not yet. An office complex like the FBI would go a long way to creating that density where a Cheesecake Factory could enjoy constant foot traffic all day and night with those that can afford to eat there. Perhaps Konterra, which when complete will be compared to Alexandria of Tysons, will have the density and office presence to get high-end big box retailers. And the Cheesecake Factory is not all that expensive.
Perhaps, I think it would definitely help.
And the Cheesecake Factory really isn't that expensive but it has a perception of being 'upscale' because it is in very select locations. If it was just a run of the mill place, it probably wouldn't bother PG residents.
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Originally Posted by adelphi_sky
I agree on the crime issue. Yes, business do shy away from areas with higher crime. The book mentioned Landover Mall which was actually pretty high end. I went as a child and could remember Bloomingdales, Garfinckles, and Hechts. But crime slowly killed that mall. So, PGC did have its heyday and squandered the opportunity.
In closing, I think crime, land lack of office and affluent residential density has played a part in keeping the high end retailers away.
I think crime is a much larger factor though. I do agree that those other things play a part, but it's not the reason why people aren't coming. If businesses saw how many people shopped/still shop at the Wegmans they would know that no matter what is around the area, if you built it in PG, people will come. Woodmore isn't exactly dense or near the metro, but the Wegmans is usually packed every time I have been there.
I think crime is a much larger factor though. I do agree that those other things play a part, but it's not the reason why people aren't coming. If businesses saw how many people shopped/still shop at the Wegmans they would know that no matter what is around the area, if you built it in PG, people will come. Woodmore isn't exactly dense or near the metro, but the Wegmans is usually packed every time I have been there.
I'm guessing its all about demographics and how they are perceived. Keep in mind, they have been talking about high end retailers coming to PG for decades. What happened to the old Capital Centre? How is that doing and why can't they attract Cheesecake? By the way, Cheesecake Factory isnt the greatest food.....seriously, long waits for average food, I'm not sure what the fuss is about...............but that's not the point
Another point that wasn't mentioned in this discussion is the fact that PG residents are already supporting these establishments outside of the county. As a business why would I build another location/facility (increasing my overhead costs) if I am already getting traffic from that community anyway. Sure we could argue convenience for the consumer but the reality is why build when they are already patronizing me. In addition to other deciding factors, reaching a market that is untapped (e.g. not generating revenue from) is a big one. The motivating factor for a business would be whether they would capture more of that market if they placed a location there and if it would justify the additional cost of doing business there. As previously stated, there are a few pockets in PGC that could facilitate an increase in the number of high-end businesses. The county just needs to demonstrate that 1) market share from PG will eventually be lost if a location is not opened there and 2) That business will stand to gain additional business above and beyond what they have if they expand into PG.
Not sure how this got by me. And yes, this is a Montgomery County story. But, right on the county line off New Hampshire Avenue. The National Labor College is up for sale and there were over 300 interested developers. What caught my eye was the fact that there was interest from a outlet retailer. A person who wished to remain anonymous mentioned that the retailer wanted to bring stores like Prada to the center. The National Labor College currently sits on 47 acres off of New Hampshire Avenue and the Beltway and is called the gateway to the White Oak Science Corridor. I thought it was interesting based on the conversation about high-end retail in the D.C. region. While there are high-income enclaves in that part of Montgomery County. Many argue, in an online blog, that the area wouldn't be able to support that type of retail. Even though the prices would be outlet prices.
More than 300 entities filed statements of interest, and offers were due July 9, resulting in at least four bids, but college officials say the deadline is flexible and more bids are expected. One proposal is for a high-end retail outlet center for name brands like Prada, according to person with knowledge of the bids who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to release the information.
That kind left me scratching my head. They could have been looking at the planned White Oak Life Science Village potential which is planned to mimic the Gaithersburg biomedical corridor. That would certainly bring the density and incomes to the area.
It's not just Apple, its every other white table cloth restaurant, luxury store such as Nordstrom, Rack, etc. Most of the time PG residents come to Montgomery County or now, Virginia. Something is keeping major retailers from expanding into PG. It's been like that for decades.
Yeah its call anti-Growth(aka smart growth) Special Interest Groups and anti-Growth Democrats that support laws that prohibits Massive Upscale Growth throughout 80% of PG County.
I think I finally know why and it makes sense. I'm currently reading a book about affluent African-Americans in Prince Georges County compared to those in Fairfax. (Blue-Chip Black: Race, Class, and Status in the New Black Middle Class) There's a section of the book that speaks to development and even goes into detail about how years ago, the purpose for National Harbor, the way it is now, was to attract a casino. Go figure. So, even 10 years ago, Peterson wanted a casino, and it looks like he's getting one. But I digress.
The reason why these major affluent retailers aren't coming to the county is density. And to me, that makes sense. In the book, the retailers like Nordstrom's and others were asked why they avoid Prince George's County. They said it's not for lack of income, it is for lack of density. Put simply, as a retailer, how many individuals would you rather stroll into your store at lunch time? Ten? or Fifty? It is strictly numbers. They mentioned Crystal City where there are dense office complexes and towers that can support that sort of foot traffic. Arlington can support it. Rockville, etc. But where in PGC can a community support that high volume foot traffic that would make it worthwhile for a store to locate there? Let's be real, PGC shot itself in it's foot by building too many darn housing communities spread out all over the place. If we want the high end retail, unfortunately it means not only more people, but more affluent people packed into a smaller space. Even Silver Spring is not quite there yet or they would already have those upscale stores. Look at Bethesdsa and Chevy Chase in contrast? They have tons of offices and apartments. Lots of dense urban affluent foot traffic.
Build, and they will come.
That last paragraph would easily win the contradiction award.
Dulles/Sterling has a Nordstrom's and it is nowhere near as densely populated as Hyattsville, Largo, or Greenbelt and they have a Nordstrom's in Short Pump(sprawling suburb northwest of Richmond, VA) that is just as spread out than Dulles/Sterling. To use density as an excuse to attack people that support more development throughout PG County defuses the credibility of supporting supporting more economic/business growth for PG County. Hyattsville, Greenbelt, New Carollton, and Largo is already highly dense but there are no Office Towers and Upscale Shopping Mall density like Arlington, Tysons Corner, and Fair Oaks for the main reason of anti-Growth Politics in PG County, Extremely High Property Taxes, and Mountains of political Red Tape Development Approvals that can take years if not decades....
I can't believe I'm saying this but you're right. Adelphi's theory doesn't work here. A Cheesecake Factory just opened up at Potomac Mills in Prince William County. Prince William County is basically half the size of PG and is mostly urban sprawl (even though PWC's job market is growing). I also see two Wegmans (and one of them is in a very, very remote suburban location no where near any major businesses) in Prince William County and one in PG? How did it get to PG? Well because they receive huge incentives to do so. This isn't rocket science, it's all about perception. If a business believes that people are less likely to shop in a place because the customers may feel unsafe or because they may be victims of crimes (primarily theft), then the business have to see how it affects their bottom line. Is it worth moving to a place that you have to pay for extra security or have customers scared away? Many business are saying no.
Think about it, what is the ultimate goal of a business? To make money of course, if businesses are saying that PG has the money to support upscale retail, then what is the problem? It's really not a deep as we are making it here.
You can say crime or whatever crappy scare tactic tricks being used as excuses for Major Businesses and Upscale Retail not locating to PG County but the real truth remains that PG County/Suburban Maryland is Overly Saturated with anti-Growth Special Interest Groups and anti-Growth Politicians that support Development Red Tapping that eventually scares off Businesses and Retailers from locating to PG County(and Montgomery county too).
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So, even 10 years ago, Peterson wanted a casino, and it looks like he's getting one. But I digress. 
But, right on the county line off New Hampshire Avenue. The National Labor College is up for sale and there were over 300 interested developers. What caught my eye was the fact that there was interest from a outlet retailer. A person who wished to remain anonymous mentioned that the retailer wanted to bring stores like Prada to the center. The National Labor College currently sits on 47 acres off of New Hampshire Avenue and the Beltway and is called the gateway to the White Oak Science Corridor. I thought it was interesting based on the conversation about high-end retail in the D.C. region. While there are high-income enclaves in that part of Montgomery County. Many argue, in an online blog, that the area wouldn't be able to support that type of retail. Even though the prices would be outlet prices.
