What is the furniture of American Suburbs? (Silver Spring: real estate, renters)
Washington, DC suburbs in MarylandCalvert County, Charles County, Montgomery County, and Prince George's County
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Or look at those in Baltimore who lived in Fells, Canton, Federal Hill or Harbor East. While not as wealthy as DC, that is where most of the wealth in Baltimore in concentrated. When kids get old enough to enter school, if the parents can't afford private school, they move to Baltimore or Howard County.
Well you're citing the areas that young millennials live in; obviously they usually don't have kids. If you instead look at the schools that are fed by wealthier Baltimore families (instead of millennials) of course you see they're excellent schools by anyone's standards. Hampden, Roland Park, Mt. Washington, Homeland, etc. all feed top tier public schools, hence the cost to live there.
Ditto for DC. Most of the top tier schools are still west of the park, where they've traditionally been. Sure, plenty of wealthy families send their kids to private institutions, but plenty (the vast majority?) use public schools, too, especially K-8.
Well you're citing the areas that young millennials live in; obviously they usually don't have kids. If you instead look at the schools that are fed by wealthier Baltimore families (instead of millennials) of course you see they're excellent schools by anyone's standards. Hampden, Roland Park, Mt. Washington, Homeland, etc. all feed top tier public schools, hence the cost to live there.
Ditto for DC. Most of the top tier schools are still west of the park, where they've traditionally been. Sure, plenty of wealthy families send their kids to private institutions, but plenty (the vast majority?) use public schools, too, especially K-8.
You're right about Roland Park schools. They are the top Baltimore City public schools...but isn't that the 'old money' Baltimore area?
However, my point about emphasizing Fells etc. was Adelphi's premise that gentrification will be a positive feedback cycle, where younger high-income folks put down roots, house prices go up over time, more people move down there, etc. etc. and with that critical mass, schools improve.
IMHO, there seems to be a certain point in that cycle where costs become too great to raise a family in the newly gentrified area, and young families leave for lower costs and more room.
DC maybe unique in the Federal government's influence...but it reminds me more of Boston than NYC or Philly. Not as big, high concentration of educated people, very expensive homes in the city proper. Just looking around greatschools, most of the 'top' public schools near Boston tend to be in the suburbs (only two schools rated 8-10 in Boston, while just about every school with a rating west of the city borders are rated 8-10).
I agree it will be interesting to see what the next few years holds. I'm very interested to see what effect all the new apartments/condos coming online will have on the DC area.
I don't think they will leave. People are having kids a lot later in life (mid-thirties). As major sections of DC continue to gentrify, crime will continue to decrease and schools will get markedly better providing less incentive to move to the suburbs which may soon not be the middle-class haven they have been in the past 50 years due to the poor and low-income people being pushed away from the more expensive city center. Also, people are finding a way to raise families in DC. I see young families out and about in DC on my way to church. It's nice to see actually that in some neighborhoods that used to be unsafe now having families move in and taking advantage of the housing stock.
IN addition, as public transit becomes better (crosses fingers), people will not decide to move away from access to public transit. They will weigh the cost of having to purchase a car and/or having to commute 45 min to an hour into work whereas now they can either bike to work, walk, or catch the metro for a 15 or 20 minute ride.
Lastly, this is a highly social generation that would probably shun the isolationism you normally find in the suburbs.
This is exactly what I was thinking.
In addition.. the good jobs will continue to be in the cities. So why would Millennials want to move away from their jobs? One of the main reasons Millennials moved to cities in the first place was for employment options. And as city cores continue to be more convenient, inviting and accommodating places to live.. there is little incentive to leave the city for a long commute and loads of house and yard work to do every weekend.
I really see "suburbia" as we know it, dying with the baby boomers. It started with them and it will die with them.
You're right about Roland Park schools. They are the top Baltimore City public schools...but isn't that the 'old money' Baltimore area?
However, my point about emphasizing Fells etc. was Adelphi's premise that gentrification will be a positive feedback cycle, where younger high-income folks put down roots, house prices go up over time, more people move down there, etc. etc. and with that critical mass, schools improve.
IMHO, there seems to be a certain point in that cycle where costs become too great to raise a family in the newly gentrified area, and young families leave for lower costs and more room.
DC maybe unique in the Federal government's influence...but it reminds me more of Boston than NYC or Philly. Not as big, high concentration of educated people, very expensive homes in the city proper. Just looking around greatschools, most of the 'top' public schools near Boston tend to be in the suburbs (only two schools rated 8-10 in Boston, while just about every school with a rating west of the city borders are rated 8-10).
I agree it will be interesting to see what the next few years holds. I'm very interested to see what effect all the new apartments/condos coming online will have on the DC area.
I think you missed a very important factor in your discussion. You forget that "good schools" depend on the local population of people attending them. The kids in the current "bad schools" in DC, NYC, Philly, etc. will eventually become adults. They will then need to be replaced by new kids. What if those kids no longer live in the area because of gentrification and have been pushed out to suburbs?
Do you see what I mean?
Once the low income and poor are pushed out to the suburbs (which is already happening) they will slowly start filtering into the suburban schools and bringing them down. This will cause the middle and upper class parents in the area to flee.
The opposite will occur in cities as those school while slowly receive higher quality students from more privileged families who will demand a higher standard.. thus forcing those schools to improve.
Trust me. The suburbs will be the new ghetto in the next 20, 30, or 40 years. Remember who told you first. This is why I refuse to buy Real Estate in any non-urban area.
I think you missed a very important factor in your discussion. You forget that "good schools" depend on the local population of people attending them. The kids in the current "bad schools" in DC, NYC, Philly, etc. will eventually become adults. They will then need to be replaced by new kids. What if those kids no longer live in the area because of gentrification and have been pushed out to suburbs?
Do you see what I mean?
Once the low income and poor are pushed out to the suburbs (which is already happening) they will slowly start filtering into the suburban schools and bringing them down. This will cause the middle and upper class parents in the area to flee.
The opposite will occur in cities as those school while slowly receive higher quality students from more privileged families who will demand a higher standard.. thus forcing those schools to improve.
Trust me. The suburbs will be the new ghetto in the next 20, 30, or 40 years. Remember who told you first. This is why I refuse to buy Real Estate in any non-urban area.
Dunno, I think you have your urbanization shades on man.
I see the attraction of walkable areas (Penn Quarter, Capitol Hill, Bethesda, Frederick, Alexeandria, Silver Spirng, etc.), but as DINKS we aren't as attuned to the rest of the parental stuff that friends/family have to look at (schools, parks, safety, transit options).
I'm from the Detroit Metro area; we had a bit of a different socio-economic experience with a really crappy, rotting urban core (Detroit) where inner-city folks had the opportunity through state, Federal money to expand to inner-ring suburbs (Wayne, Dearborn, Livonia, Hazel Park). The outer ring (Plymouth/Northville in Wayne County, Birmingham/Bloomfield Hills in Oakland) continue to have the combination of expensive homes, exclusive schools WITH job opportunities that attract people.
Public schools, from my experience, really depend on peer pressure. From my personal experience in a USNWR 'top 10' school, there were kids from homes who expected excellence, and kids who just expected to coast through life. Peer pressure helps (by junior, senior year in my high-school, if you weren't accepted to at least the University of Michigan you were a loser).
Dunno, I think you have your urbanization shades on man.
I see the attraction of walkable areas (Penn Quarter, Capitol Hill, Bethesda, Frederick, Alexeandria, Silver Spirng, etc.), but as DINKS we aren't as attuned to the rest of the parental stuff that friends/family have to look at (schools, parks, safety, transit options).
I'm from the Detroit Metro area; we had a bit of a different socio-economic experience with a really crappy, rotting urban core (Detroit) where inner-city folks had the opportunity through state, Federal money to expand to inner-ring suburbs (Wayne, Dearborn, Livonia, Hazel Park). The outer ring (Plymouth/Northville in Wayne County, Birmingham/Bloomfield Hills in Oakland) continue to have the combination of expensive homes, exclusive schools WITH job opportunities that attract people.
Public schools, from my experience, really depend on peer pressure. From my personal experience in a USNWR 'top 10' school, there were kids from homes who expected excellence, and kids who just expected to coast through life. Peer pressure helps (by junior, senior year in my high-school, if you weren't accepted to at least the University of Michigan you were a loser).
It all depends on supply and demand as well as affordability. High demand areas will always get more investment and be nicer places to live than low demand areas. If the majority of millennials have no interest in "suburbia" and the lifestyle that comes with it.. then the suburbs will decline. For homes in those areas to have high value.. it requires a lot of people willing to pay big $$$ for them. If the demand is low.. the prices will drop as no one will willingly spend that $$$. As prices drop, the class of people that can afford the area drops too. In addition, investment in the area will drop. Businesses and services will leave the area and there will be even less incentive to live there.. leading prices to fall even more.
Right know its hard to picture because so many baby boomers are still around and still living in expensive suburbs and spending their $$$ there. Currently, we are in a situation where most baby boomers have not retired yet, while most millennials have already entered the workforce. Millennials are choosing the urban lifestyle for reasons mentioned earlier, but also because they don't want to live around the baby boomers (aka "old people"). Once the boomers die, they need to be replaced. But most Millennials will be too established in their urban lifestyle by then to move back to the suburbs. So I don't see anyone replacing the boomers. Once the boomers die off and the suburbs go from being "a place for old people" to a vacant area too expensive to be worth the trouble... that is when prices will start dropping fast and more of the poor will start coming in.
I think Millennials will avoid going back to the suburbs for the following reasons:
1. Suburban sprawl is no longer the best bang for your buck. It has become too expensive and wasteful to be sustainable.
2. Long commutes are not popular anymore because of the cost and environmental impact.
3. 9/11 along with the 2008 Real Estate crash has made millennials less trusting of our system and most institutions. Many of them would rather spend their $$$ on something that is a guaranteed value.
4. Millennials are getting married later and having kids later.. and having fewer kids than baby boomers.
6. The economy is moving away from the suburban structure of the past, so as the poor move into the suburbs it will become less desirable. People will ask themselves why its worth a longer commute just to live around more crime and poverty along with less services and conveniences.
Obviously there will always be a few nice suburban areas, but they will mostly likely be the areas that are very close to large cities and jobs. A small number of millennials who prefer suburbia and long commutes will not be enough to save the suburbs if value, price, jobs and the economy don't support that lifestyle. Once there is no added benefit to living in the suburbs.. there will be no reason to live there.
The only thing saving the suburbs right now is the baby boomers who are still alive and kicking. That is the single ONLY thing.
The change will be a slow process. The key is to see it coming and plan your life and finances accordingly.
The change will be a slow process. The key is to see it coming and plan your life and finances accordingly.
It may not be as slow as you think. It has only been 20 years or so since DC has experienced such a meteoric rise in cost-of-living and gentrification.
I agree that baby-boomers will remain in the suburbs. As they move into fixed-incomes, cost-of-living in the city becomes prohibitive.
Don't be fooled. A lot of that movement OUT of the city by Millennials are actually poor people being moved by gentrification. Most middle and upper class Millennials did not grow up in the city and usually move in once they get a job.
I bet the Millennials moving out are the poor ones. And this falls perfectly in line with my previous post.
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