PGC Just Isn't That Into Urbanism (North Beach: real estate, apartment, lease)

[North Beach Person]

You guys are looking at somewhat of a done deal. Larry Hogan may have been elected Governor but, except for a couple things on the fringes, the O'Malley Administration's PlanMD is still the guiding planning document for the state.


It directs future development to areas which already have infrastructure (roads, water/sewer/schools) in place, so right there you should see what y'all are talking about in the mid-term if not sooner. Remember, much of the region still hasn't really recovered from the recession.


There are variables, though. Will millennials really stay in urbanized areas or will they move where there's more space? The jury for that one hasn't even been impaneled. Will Metro finally get its **** together after 40 years of kicking problems down the road (many of those problems are now really hitting it hard). What it does will be a factor on future funding from any of the jurisdictions, right now there's a sense going clear up to the federal level questioning whether any more funding is just sending good money after bad.


Another question is, being given almost a slam dunk, will Prince George's County still find a way to **** it up?

[CBMD]

Originally Posted by NYtoDC

Yes. It is definitely inevitable though because once the baby boomers have mostly died off, I believe that Millennials will get sick of living on top of one another and will want somewhere that is a bit more spaced out. PGC is currently the only place where you can still get a nice single family home at a reasonable price.

Like beauty, reasonableness is in the eye of the beholder. All the people with more money than you, and who buy in more expensive counties than PG, would more likely disagree with your contention that PGC is the only location where you can buy a SFH at reasonable price.

This was the sentence that jumped out at me.

Even five years into the recovery, there are about 13,000 homes’ worth of approved but unbuilt subdivisions scattered across the county.

To me that indicates lack of demand (at any price), rather than a price constraint.

Here's a comparison of the average size of "new builds" for 15 countries in 2009. People in densely populated countries where land is much more expensive than the US, like the UK, where in contrast to the US, average size has been decreasing, have a very different perspective on what is reasonable.

How big is a house? Average house size by country – shrinkthatfootprint.com

[lookingbutnotlost]

Millennials may move out but they still want walkability and perceived convenience. PG is at a great spot to get millennials who can't afford DC. I know plenty who have moved to PG and some have been priced out of Hyattsville.

[adelphi_sky]

Originally Posted by lookingbutnotlost

Millennials may move out but they still want walkability and perceived convenience. PG is at a great spot to get millennials who can't afford DC. I know plenty who have moved to PG and some have been priced out of Hyattsville.

I think we're also missing the Purple Line Corridor. With Prince George's low prices, the developers are salivating. I'm going to bet that the stretch from College Park to Silver Spring will be gentrified in the next 20 years. It makes sense. Those that can't afford Bethesda or Silver Spring will choose Langley Park, a short 15 minute ride on the Purple Line.

University BLVD is a large transit-way with a lot of business fronts and has high density. I can see 10 story mixed-use buildings all along it. It reminds me of Rockville Pike. I give it 5 years before we start to see some urban development activity in that area.

Purple Line Corridor

[lookingbutnotlost]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

I think we're also missing the Purple Line Corridor. With Prince George's low prices, the developers are salivating. I'm going to bet that the stretch from College Park to Silver Spring will be gentrified in the next 20 years. It makes sense. Those that can't afford Bethesda or Silver Spring will choose Langley Park, a short 15 minute ride on the Purple Line.

University BLVD is a large transit-way with a lot of business fronts and has high density. I can see 10 story mixed-use buildings all along it. It reminds me of Rockville Pike. I give it 5 years before we start to see some urban development activity in that area.

Purple Line Corridor

I love redevelopment but I hate that tenants will not be able to live there. I hope Montgomery & PG County work together on this. I live in DC but still shop at Langely Park bc they have ethnic ingredients that I can't find anywhere else.

[UrbanScholar]

Originally Posted by CBMD

Like beauty, reasonableness is in the eye of the beholder. All the people with more money than you, and who buy in more expensive counties than PG, would more likely disagree with your contention that PGC is the only location where you can buy a SFH at reasonable price.

This was the sentence that jumped out at me.



To me that indicates lack of demand (at any price), rather than a price constraint.

Here's a comparison of the average size of "new builds" for 15 countries in 2009. People in densely populated countries where land is much more expensive than the US, like the UK, where in contrast to the US, average size has been decreasing, have a very different perspective on what is reasonable.

How big is a house? Average house size by country – shrinkthatfootprint.com

That and developers taking a wait and see approach. There are still a lot of unknowns as to how some of these areas in PGC will evolve. The average builder is not going to make that type of investment without having confidence that an area is going to move in a profitable direction. Take the National Harbor for example. It wasn't until it was about 4 years in that those townhomes/rowhouses in the back took off and they started expanding their residential offering (apts, etc). Development there and in DC triggered projects slated for Eastover to move forward. Over the next few years there will be a redevelopment of the shopping center there to a mix-use, senior housing, townhouse community, and other commercial projects that I can't think of off the top of my head. Also a large SFH/TH community being restarted by the post office in Ft Washington which will probably trigger some upgrades to the shopping center off of Swan Creek Road.

Bottom line there are many factors that go into residential projects going forward. The good thing is that these projects are still active and have not been cancelled by the developer.

[NYtoDC]

Originally Posted by adelphi_sky

That doesn't explain the successes of NYC, L.A., San Fran, and every other city that has a high cost of living. There won't ever be a shift back to the burbs unless crime returns to the cities. This current shift is here to stay for at least another 40 to 50 years.

Even with mass transit reaching the outer suburbs like Loudoun County, the preference will still be to be in the "center of it all." They won't want to have to ride a Metro for 45 minutes to catch a sporting event, entertainment, nightlife, or the arts when they can either walk, ride their bike, or take a 20 minute train or bus ride.

As DC continues to grow, it will have the best of everything. As millennials reach their mid-thirties, I think they will still choose urban living than the vanilla cookie-cutter suburbs that their parents live in.

My new duties have me driving all around DC and I see a LOT of people pushing strollers all over the city in all quadrants from completely refurbished homes. I talk to a lot of them and they are from all over. They are making DC their home. If this weren't true, you wouldn't see the investment you see now.

The millennials aren't going anywhere. Anyplace inside the Beltway is fair game.

This is a very scary concept for those of us who chose the suburbs! The only hope for any suburb is to turn it into a small city. Small towns/cities (like Arlington) definitely are closer in appeal to larger cities than suburbs do. I personally couldn't live in the city anymore as a driver. It can be very stressful constantly dodging bikers pedestrians AND cars all the time!

[Baghead]

I believe the relationship will be akin to that of Manhattan to the outer boroughs. Everything in the city will continue to insane levels.

Even though Millenials do have a different mindset -- with record numbers not even wanting a driver's license -- any motivation for them to leave the city might be the desire to take some money off the table when the time is right. Everyone can agree on that move.

[adelphi_sky]

Told ya!

Far from the city, far from recovery
Loudoun County’s distant suburbs were the D.C. area’s hottest market — until nightmare commutes and a revitalized District flipped a housing switch.

Prince George’s has had a similar phenomenon. Some of the highest gains in home values in the region since 2004 were in the close-in, Metro-accessible areas of Hyattsville, College Park and Cheverly, besting anything in all of Loudoun County.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...washington-dc/

[e2ksj3]

Originally Posted by lookingbutnotlost

Millennials may move out but they still want walkability and perceived convenience. PG is at a great spot to get millennials who can't afford DC. I know plenty who have moved to PG and some have been priced out of Hyattsville.

I agree, I'm a millennial that recently made the move to PG from the exurbs in NoVa. The location is great! I'm much closer to DC (20 mins to U Street via Metro) and I'm walking distance to shops, bike trails, and transit. It's really a great bargain compared to what you get in DC and NoVa.