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Just as the percentage increase in the city's population will register as high because the city's population is lower than the surrounding suburbs, an increase in poverty in the suburbs will register as high because the poverty rates in the suburbs historically have been low. As noted, among certain groups (children 5-17), the increase in the poverty rate in the District has been higher over the past few years than the comparable increase in the suburbs, which ought to be of concern to DC residents who care about children.
Do you think that is a result of DC policies that negatively impact children on the cusp of poverty?
I tend to think thats because of A. National unemployment (I know the two objections to that are that metro DC has low unemployment, and that the suburban child poverty rate did not increase as much - the UE rate is still higher than historical in the region, and its quite possible that there differential impacts between different demographic groups and economic sectors that disproportiiionately impact the DC working class) B. Possibly selective departures among DCs (mostly african american) families. While the "displacement" story focuses on african american poor, its quite possible that there has been disproportionate flight among the african american lower middle class - which would tend to increase the % of DC children in poverty - without actually making any children worse off.
I would also suggest, that, AFAICT, there has been a continued shift of employment towards the suburbs. Certainly one of the fastest if not the fastest growing suburban jurisdiction, Loudoun County, has seen dramatic job growth. I suspect if you looked at the population employment balance, the shift of population to the District would look more impressive. IE we are seeing a shift (even if modest) in population towards the district in the face of a shift in employment away from it. That suggests to me its largely a response to changes in commuting issues and to lifestyle preferences.
Do you have statistics on the growth of (1) the MD and VA suburbs during the same period that DC grew by 16,000; and (2) other US cities during that period?
I think the thousands of young people flooding into DC in pursuit of work are the real "Occupy DCers," as opposed to those in the square. One question is how transient many of these mobile young people will turn out to be if conditions improve in other parts of the country. Will it be like folks who moved to California from the Dust Bowl during the Great Depression and stayed, or will they decamp if and when job opportunities perk up in other cities? At some point people realized that the main thing you can do in Portland is skateboard.
1960s - 2000 - suburbs grew, city shrunk
2000-2011 - suburbs grew, city grew
That's the story. It's not an either / or, especially considering how small DC is.
Maybe you just need to be more in touch with these systemic shifts nationwide that, while amplified here due to the recession elsewhere, are not restricted to here. You make the same mistake Coldbliss makes and seem committed to this idea that young people today want no different than when you grew up. They are different and educated 30-somethings settling down are proving that..
Given the fact that demand for smart growth outstrips supply in the region, you should embrace it so they stop building excess sprawl development that will only decrease the vslue of your property due to a glut of supply on the market.
1960s - 2000 - suburbs grew, city shrunk
2000-2011 - suburbs grew, city grew
That's the story. It's not an either / or, especially considering how small DC is.
Maybe you just need to be more in touch with these systemic shifts nationwide that, while amplified here due to the recession elsewhere, are not restricted to here. You make the same mistake Coldbliss makes and seem committed to this idea that young people today want no different than when you grew up. They are different and 30-somethings are proving that..
Given the fact that demand for smart growth outstrips supply in the region, you should embrace it so they stop building excess sprawl development that will only decrease the vslue of your property due to a glut of supply on the market.
I understand that people who suffered in the cities in past years take heart from good news and want to read as much positive into as possible. I also appreciate the advocacy efforts of those who favor certain modes of development. What troubles me is when people seize on discrete data points to support broader arguments such as "the growth in DC is now obliterating the growth in the suburbs" or "there has been a fundamental change in lifestyle" without bothering to provide data to support such a claim. On the issue of urban growth, one of the Brookings studies that you previously cited expressly noted that it was premature to assess whether recent trends in urban and suburban growth was indicative of a longer-term change or a response to the economic downturn.
As to your last point, no need to make this personal. There are a wide variety of housing types and preferences in this region, and I'm not particularly worried about how building either a new condo in Columbia Heights or a new subdivision in Loudoun will impact the value of my inside-the-Beltway property. Maybe I should be, but all I see now in my neighborhood are folks in their 30s and 40s buying every old house that goes on the market, tearing them down, and building new homes on lots that are bigger than anything they'll get in DC or a mile from the Clarendon Metro. That is somewhat different from what my peers would have done in their 30s, and perhaps it's different still from what folks now in their 20s will do 10-20 years from now, but I think it's an entirely rational response to the continued growth in the region and the greater traffic congestion. However, if I did live in a cul-de-sac today - which I don't - I probably would welcome some of the initiatives to require, for example, no more cul-de-sacs in new suburban developments, since buyers (if not planning gurus) seem to like them. Conversely, whatever the current demand may be for "smart growth" developments in the DC area, one doesn't have to look too far for examples of gluts in the markets for urban condos in many locations, so a bit of caution might be warranted here.
. But, if I did live in a cul-de-sac today (which I don't), I probably would welcome some of the initiatives to require, for example, no more cul-de-sacs in new suburban developments, since buyers (if not planning gurus) seem to like them.
There's no such initiative. There is a Va law that says all developments (over a certain size, I think) must have at least two points of ingress/egress- IE the whole development can't be one giant cul de sac - however cul de sacs can still be built WITHIN developments.
Don't believe everything you are told by certain people on the NoVa forum.
I understand that people who suffered in the cities in past years take heart from good news and want to read as much positive into as possible. I also appreciate the advocacy efforts of those who favor certain modes of development. What troubles me is when people seize on discrete data points to support broader arguments such as "the growth in DC is now obliterating the growth in the suburbs" or "there has been a fundamental change in lifestyle" without bothering to provide data to support such a claim.
Obliterating is a rhetorical word. Even fundamental is hard to pin down. What is clear is that A. The district has had faster growth than we have seen since WW2 (when massive population shifts to DC were combined with gasoline rationing) after decades of decline. The growth that already occured in 2000 - 2010 accelerated dramatically. For the suburbs (which were growing faster, IIUC) in 2000-2010 to have had a similar acceleration, would require VERY rapid growth in 2000-2010. B. The proportions of many major (and a few smaller) cities inhabited by college educated, young single or DINK (or older childless or empty nester) people is higher (no summary data at my fingertips, sorry) is higher than it was when the boomers were 20something, despite the 20 something age group being smaller relative to the total pop than it was then.
Im also not sure if both our urbanist suburb haters, and our cul de sac/autocentric defenders, are looking too narrowly in looking at the lifestyle change. Not only the (often overlooked, though not by MdAllstar) rise of TOD in close in suburbs like Arlington, but in greater preferences among non TOD suburbanites for Planned communities with pedestrian/cycling accommodation and more integated retail.
At one time Reston was something radical and vaguely hipsterish. Today PUDs in Loudoun with many Reston like charecteristics are inhabited by folks who dont much care for say, Petworth. That change is not as dramatic as a coffeeshop in Petworth, or a new building on V Street NW, but I think its at least in part driven by similar underlying factors.
I would also suggest, that, AFAICT, there has been a continued shift of employment towards the suburbs. Certainly one of the fastest if not the fastest growing suburban jurisdiction, Loudoun County, has seen dramatic job growth. I suspect if you looked at the population employment balance, the shift of population to the District would look more impressive. IE we are seeing a shift (even if modest) in population towards the district in the face of a shift in employment away from it. That suggests to me its largely a response to changes in commuting issues and to lifestyle preferences.
Are you suggesting that there are lots of young folks moving to DC and taking jobs in Loudoun? On the NoVa forum, such people generally are discouraged from moving anywhere closer in than Arlington, at most.
In any event, I assume that would be no great cause for celebration among smart-growth advocates, any more so than additional Loudoun commuters to DC jobs would be.
I'd really want to see the data on job growth in the different jurisdictions during the same period to draw inferences about why people may be moving to different areas.
Maybe you just need to be more in touch with these systemic shifts nationwide that, while amplified here due to the recession elsewhere, are not restricted to here.
One problem with appeals to national trends, is that in many other cities (Eg Philly, chicago) dramatic growth in walkable center city nabes inhabited by the typical renovating demographics, are more than offset by declines in outlying city neighborhoods (some of those outlying nabes being NOT walkable, TOD, though some are) Since there is no objective, simple (that I know of) definition of walkable TOD, transformative, etc its not possible to present national stats on that - only on center cities as a whole. Thus to make the case one must go through the details, city by city by city. Off topic on this forum, and not really very feasible even on the urban planning forum.
Obliterating is a rhetorical word. Even fundamental is hard to pin down. What is clear is that A. The district has had faster growth than we have seen since WW2 (when massive population shifts to DC were combined with gasoline rationing) after decades of decline. The growth that already occured in 2000 - 2010 accelerated dramatically. For the suburbs (which were growing faster, IIUC) in 2000-2010 to have had a similar acceleration, would require VERY rapid growth in 2000-2010. B. The proportions of many major (and a few smaller) cities inhabited by college educated, young single or DINK (or older childless or empty nester) people is higher (no summary data at my fingertips, sorry) is higher than it was when the boomers were 20something, despite the 20 something age group being smaller relative to the total pop than it was then.
Im also not sure if both our urbanist suburb haters, and our cul de sac/autocentric defenders, are looking too narrowly in looking at the lifestyle change. Not only the (often overlooked, though not by MdAllstar) rise of TOD in close in suburbs like Arlington, but in greater preferences among non TOD suburbanites for Planned communities with pedestrian/cycling accommodation and more integated retail.
At one time Reston was something radical and vaguely hipsterish. Today PUDs in Loudoun with many Reston like charecteristics are inhabited by folks who dont much care for say, Petworth. That change is not as dramatic as a coffeeshop in Petworth, or a new building on V Street NW, but I think its at least in part driven by similar underlying factors.
Every time I think I've decoded your acronyms, you throw out a new one.
For PUD, can I safely assume I should look to Wikipedia for guidance rather than the Urban Dictionary?
Are you suggesting that there are lots of young folks moving to DC and taking jobs in Loudoun? On the NoVa forum, such people generally are discouraged from moving anywhere closer in than Arlington, at most..
No. Im suggesting that in the past a greater proportion of those employed in the District commuted from the suburbs - and that today A. A greater share of those with jobs in the district live in the district and B. A greater share of those commuting from outside the district live in walkable TOD (mostly in Arlington and City of Alex and lower MoCo). That is not addressing the weight of the district within the region, but discussing the change of tastes.
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In any event, I assume that would be no great cause for celebration among smart-growth advocates, any more so than additional Loudoun commuters to DC jobs would be. .
That was not meant to address all the policy and outcome desires of smart growth advocates. It was an attempt to address the narrower question "has there been a shift in locational preferences?"
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I'd really want to see the data on job growth in the different jurisdictions during the same period to draw inferences about why people may be moving to different areas.
Yes, of course.
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